N A S A G O D D A R D S P A C E F L I G H T C E N T E R I n t e g r a t e d D e s i g n C a p a b i l i t y / I n s t r u m e n t S y n t h e s i s & A n a l y s i s L a b o r a t o r y MAXIM Periscope Module PRICE H Cost Modeling Bill Lawson 25 April 2003

I n s t r u m e n t S y n t h e s i s & A n a l y s i s L a b o r a t o r y PRICE H Cost Model, p2 Final Version 25 April 2003 MAXIM Periscope Module PRICE H Cost Model PRICE H: Commercial Parametric Hardware Cost Modeling Tool Tool Heritage: DOD Global Parameters: –Labor Costs: GSFC bid rates (used for in-house builds of spacecraft/instrument) –Inflation: NASA Inflation Index (MAXIM costs presented in Constant 2003 dollars) –Engineering Environment NASA environment defined by PRICE Systems, Inc. calibration study Baseline environment emphasizes System Engineering, Project Management, and automated design capabilities Key Component Parameters: –Complexity Factors (Table driven from industry experience) –Modification Level/Remaining Design Factor (Heritage) –Quantity and Design Repeat (Learning Curve) –Composition (Structure, Electronic, Purchased, Cost Pass-through) –Mass –Operating Platform (Unmanned-Space)

I n s t r u m e n t S y n t h e s i s & A n a l y s i s L a b o r a t o r y PRICE H Cost Model, p3 Final Version 25 April 2003 MAXIM Periscope Module ISAL PRICE H Cost Modeling Study begins with a blank model –Instrument payloads vary making a template approach difficult –Similar components (e.g., electronics) from prior studies were incorporated and modified ISAL study output products: –Powerpoint presentation –PRICE H model exported to Summary Excel Spreadsheet –PRICE H model exported to Detailed Excel Spreadsheet –PRICE model file (requires PRICE H software) –Upon request: Text reports containing input/outputs for each cost element

I n s t r u m e n t S y n t h e s i s & A n a l y s i s L a b o r a t o r y PRICE H Cost Model, p4 Final Version 25 April 2003 MAXIM Periscope Module Top-Level Cost Model

I n s t r u m e n t S y n t h e s i s & A n a l y s i s L a b o r a t o r y PRICE H Cost Model, p5 Final Version 25 April 2003 MAXIM Periscope Module Expanded Model

I n s t r u m e n t S y n t h e s i s & A n a l y s i s L a b o r a t o r y PRICE H Cost Model, p6 Final Version 25 April 2003 MAXIM Periscope Module PRICE Cost Summary 1 st “Periscope-Pair” Engineering Manufacturing Cost Element (Summary Report Available for each cost element) Year Dollars ($03) Total Cost Estimate $23.9M Production Development Schedule Project Management Mass

I n s t r u m e n t S y n t h e s i s & A n a l y s i s L a b o r a t o r y PRICE H Cost Model, p7 Final Version 25 April 2003 MAXIM Periscope Module PRICE Cost Estimate Summary Incremental Cost of 2 nd Unit (T2) T1T1 + T2 Total Cost (incremental cost for T2 is $2.24M)

I n s t r u m e n t S y n t h e s i s & A n a l y s i s L a b o r a t o r y PRICE H Cost Model, p8 Final Version 25 April 2003 MAXIM Periscope Module Learning Curve Basics PRICE H Users Manual: –Basis for improvement is the “human learning process” –Learning curves in PRICE H apply to production run (not development) –The more one produces, the more efficient one becomes –Production learning improvement is virtually non-existent for automated manufacturing methods –PRICE H provides a parameter to adjust the degree of automation (MPI) –Typically, automation lowers Theoretical First Piece (T1) cost and flattens the Unit Learning Curve NASA Cost Estimating Handbook (April 2002) –The learning curve concept is used primarily for uninterrupted manufacturing and assembly tasks –The major premise of learning curves is that each time the product quantity doubles the resources (labor hours) required to produce the product will reduce by a determined percentage.

I n s t r u m e n t S y n t h e s i s & A n a l y s i s L a b o r a t o r y PRICE H Cost Model, p9 Final Version 25 April 2003 MAXIM Periscope Module Multiple Unit Studies (PRICE H Learning Curve) PRICE H: –Calculates Theoretical First Piece (T1) production unit (most costly to produce) –Incorporates industry standard Boeing Unit Learning Curve (ULC) –Applies a correction factor to improve accuracy (for lower quantity studies) –Includes Stanford-b formula to transfer prototype learning to manufacturing –Calculates Production Average Unit Cost (UPC) Production Cost = T1 (QTY + QCF + Stan_b) - (QCF + Stan_b) A A A - ULCF Where: ULCF = (A – 1) (A – 2) 24 A = 1 + ln(UNITLC) ln(2) QCF = – ln(QTY) Stan_b = (input %)(Protos) ULCF is PRICE H correction factor Part of Boeing Equation Quantity dependent correction factor Percent of Prototypes to include

I n s t r u m e n t S y n t h e s i s & A n a l y s i s L a b o r a t o r y PRICE H Cost Model, p10 Final Version 25 April 2003 MAXIM Periscope Module Learning Curves

I n s t r u m e n t S y n t h e s i s & A n a l y s i s L a b o r a t o r y PRICE H Cost Model, p11 Final Version 25 April 2003 MAXIM Periscope Module Summary Cost Estimate

I n s t r u m e n t S y n t h e s i s & A n a l y s i s L a b o r a t o r y PRICE H Cost Model, p12 Final Version 25 April 2003 MAXIM Periscope Module MAXIM_PRICEcost.xls Detailed Cost Estimate (1 st “Periscope-Pair”) …