First READ Global Conference Improving the impact of education on economic and social outcomes Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) First READ Global Conference Moscow Andreas Schleicher Head, Indicators and Analysis Division OECD Directorate for Education

First READ Global Conference Improving the impact of education on economic and social outcomes Better education or lower pay  Large and often growing earning differentials  In the current economic environment… …Opportunity costs for education decline –Dominated by lost earnings, not tuition (US is exception) …Labour-market entry becomes more difficult –as young graduates compete with experienced workers …Job prospects for less qualified deteriorate further …Young people with lower qualifications who become unemployed are likely to spend a long time out of work –In most countries over half of low-qualified unemployed year- olds are long-term unemployed …Higher risks for systems with significant work-based training …Gaps in educational attainment between younger and older cohorts likely to widen  This suggests educational participation to rise further In systems where high tuition limits increased participation additional public spending can leverage additional participation and thus additional public benefits Countries without significant household spending can improve participation through widening funding base.

First READ Global Conference Improving the impact of education on economic and social outcomes Average annual growth in the population with tertiary education ( ) % A1.1

Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD) Tertiary-type A graduation rate A world of change – college education Graduate supply Cost per student

Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD) Tertiary-type A graduation rate A world of change – college education United States Finland Graduate supply Cost per student

Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD) Tertiary-type A graduation rate A world of change – college education Australia United States (2000) Finland

Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD) Tertiary-type A graduation rate A world of change – college education

Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD) Tertiary-type A graduation rate A world of change – college education

Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD) Tertiary-type A graduation rate A world of change – college education

Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD) Tertiary-type A graduation rate A world of change – college education

Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD) Tertiary-type A graduation rate A world of change – college education United States Australia Finland

Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD) Tertiary-type A graduation rate A world of change – college education United States

Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD) Tertiary-type A graduation rate A world of change – college education United States

Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD) Tertiary-type A graduation rate A world of change – college education United States

Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD) Tertiary-type A graduation rate A world of change – college education United States

Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD) Tertiary-type A graduation rate A world of change – college education United States

Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD) Tertiary-type A graduation rate A world of change – college education

Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD) Tertiary-type A graduation rate A world of change – college education Finland United States

First READ Global Conference Improving the impact of education on economic and social outcomes Moving targets Future supply of high school graduates

First READ Global Conference Improving the impact of education on economic and social outcomes Future supply of high school graduates Future supply of college graduates

First READ Global Conference Improving the impact of education on economic and social outcomes How the demand for skills has changed Economy-wide measures of routine and non-routine task input (US) (Levy and Murnane) Mean task input as percentiles of the 1960 task distribution The dilemma of schools: The skills that are easiest to teach and test are also the ones that are easiest to digitise, automate and outsource

First READ Global Conference Improving the impact of education on economic and social outcomes Relationship between employment and unemployment rates for year-olds (2007) A6.5a Employment rate (%) Unemployment rate (%)

First READ Global Conference Improving the impact of education on economic and social outcomes Relationship between employment and unemployment rates for year-olds (2007) A6.5a Employment rate (%) Unemployment rate (%)

First READ Global Conference Improving the impact of education on economic and social outcomes Relationship between employment and unemployment rates for year-olds (2007) A6.5a Employment rate (%) Unemployment rate (%)

First READ Global Conference Improving the impact of education on economic and social outcomes Components of the private net present value for a male with higher education Net present value in USD equivalent 35K$ 56K$ 367K$ 105K$ 27K$ 26K$ 170K$

First READ Global Conference Improving the impact of education on economic and social outcomes Upper secondary and post-secondary non-tertiary education Tertiary Education Public cost and benefits for a male obtaining upper secondary or post-secondary non-tertiary education and tertiary education Public benefits Public costs Net present value, USD equivalent (numbers in orange show negative values) Net present value, USD equivalent (numbers in orange show negative values) A8.5 USD equivalent

First READ Global Conference Improving the impact of education on economic and social outcomes Supply and demand for young individuals (25-34 year-olds) to skilled jobs, A1.5 Percentage point change in the proportion of year-olds with tertiary education in skilled jobs between 2006 and 1998 Difference in the proportion of year-olds and year-old cohort with below tertiary education in skilled jobs Slowing demand for higher educated individuals; Preference towards older individuals (experience) over younger with below tertiary education Increasing demand for higher educated individuals; Employers have fewer choices and must take younger, less educated workers to fill skilled positions Increasing demand for higher educated individuals; Demand tends to be satisfied by existing pool of individuals with tertiary education Slowing demand for higher educated individuals; Preference towards younger individuals over older with below tertiary education older Advantage for lower-educated younger Slowing Demand for higher-educated Growing

First READ Global Conference Improving the impact of education on economic and social outcomes Health Political interest Marginal effects of education on self-reported health and political interest A9.1 Yellow and blue bars show non statistically significant countries ALL 2003 WVS 2005 ALL 2003 WVS 2005 ESS 2004 ESS 2006 ISSP 2004/6 WVS 2005 ISSP 2004/6 WVS 2005 ESS 2004 ESS 2006 Moving from below upper secondary to upper secondary Moving from upper secondary to tertiary

First READ Global Conference Improving the impact of education on economic and social outcomes Cumulative expenditure on educational institutions per student over primary and secondary studies (2006) Annual expenditure on educational institutions per student multiplied by the theoretical duration of studies, in equivalent USD converted using PPPs B1.4 OECD average (primary and secondary)

First READ Global Conference Improving the impact of education on economic and social outcomes Changes in student numbers and expenditure Primary, secondary and post-secondary non-tertiary education Index of change between 2000 and 2006 (2000=100, 2006 constant prices) Index of change (2000=100) B1.7a

First READ Global Conference Improving the impact of education on economic and social outcomes Contribution of various factors to salary cost per upper secondary student as a percentage of GDP per capita (2006) Percentage points B7.1

First READ Global Conference Improving the impact of education on economic and social outcomes Teachers who received no appraisal or feedback and teachers in schools that had no school evaluation in the previous five years ( ) D5.1

First READ Global Conference Improving the impact of education on economic and social outcomes Perception of teachers of the impact of appraisal and feedback in their school ( )

First READ Global Conference Improving the impact of education on economic and social outcomes Low policy value High policy value Low feasibilityHigh feasibility Money pits Must haves Low-hanging fruits Quick wins Examine individual, institutional and systemic factors associated with high performance Establish the relative standing of countries in terms of quality and equity in basic school subjects Extending the range of competencies through which quality is assessed (including ICT) Measuring growth in learning A real-time assessment environment that bridges the gap between formative and summative assessment. Monitor educational progress Assuming that every new skill domain is orthogonal to all others r Specific goals for PISA 2006: an experimental computer-based assessment of science competencies 2009: assessing digital literacy / electronic texts 2012: Assessing (collaborative) problem-solving, assessing dynamic competencies, moving towards electronic delivery of all assessment domains. Computer-delivered dynamic assessment task Adaptive assessment Feeding student solution strategies back to learners and teachers

First READ Global Conference Improving the impact of education on economic and social outcomes High ambitions and universal standards Rigor, focus and coherence Great systems attract great teachers and provide access to best practice and quality professional development

First READ Global Conference Improving the impact of education on economic and social outcomes Challenge and support Weak support Strong support Low challenge High challenge Strong performance Systemic improvement Poor performance Improvements idiosyncratic Conflict Demoralisation Poor performance Stagnation

First READ Global Conference Improving the impact of education on economic and social outcomes High ambitions Access to best practice and quality professional development Accountability and intervention in inverse proportion to success Devolved responsibility, the school as the centre of action

First READ Global Conference Improving the impact of education on economic and social outcomes PISA score in science School autonomy, standards-based examinations and science performance School autonomy in selecting teachers for hire

First READ Global Conference Improving the impact of education on economic and social outcomes Strong ambitions Access to best practice and quality professional development Accountability Devolved responsibility, the school as the centre of action Integrated educational opportunities From prescribed forms of teaching and assessment towards personalised learning

First READ Global Conference Improving the impact of education on economic and social outcomes Paradigm shifts Prescription Informed profession UniformityEmbracing diversity DemarcationCollaboration Provision Outcomes Bureaucratic – look upDevolved – look outwards Talk equityDeliver equity Hit & miss Universal high standards Received wisdomData and best practice The old bureaucratic education systemThe modern enabling education system

First READ Global Conference Improving the impact of education on economic and social outcomes –All national and international publications –The complete micro-level database …and remember: Without data, you are just another person with an opinion