Mapping and Modeling Subcommittee Update NTHMP Annual Meeting 27 January 2010 Susan McLean – NOAA Rob Witter – Oregon

Overview of Terms of Reference Authority – The MMS will be considered the primary mechanism for NTHMP partner input to the mapping, modeling, and hazard components of the NTHMP. – The subcommittee’s actions and recommendations will be achieved by consensus, and considered to represent the collective will of those partners. – This authority is established within the context of PL and subject to the provisions of Sections 4, 5 and 6 of the Act, most particularly Section 5(c1). January 2010NTHMP Annual Meeting2

Overview of Terms of Reference Chairpersons & Members – Approved by a majority of the NTHMP CC Co-Chairs: Susan McLean (NOAA) and Rob Witter (OR) Members: Roger Hansen (AK), Jim Kirby (ATL), Rick Wilson (CA), Juan Horrillo (GOM), Megan Craw (HI), Aurelio Mercado (PR), Tim Walsh (WA), Bill Knight (TWC), John Goeke (Pacific Islands), Al Javois (USVI ) Non-voting Members: Vasily Titov (NOAA), Elena Suleimani (AK), Aggeliki Barberopoulou (CA), Fai Cheung (HI), Joseph Zhang (OR), Lisa Taylor (NOAA) Communications – Meetings are held twice yearly, in conjunction with the Annual NTHMP meeting and typically in the spring. Communication is primarily by and conference calls. Notes and Action Items are maintained by the co-Chairs, who coordinate completion and post to the NTHMP web site. Recommendations are forwarded to the appropriate organizations by the co- Chairs. January 2010NTHMP Annual Meeting3

MMS Strategies and Measures STRATEGIES – Prioritize inundation map development – Provide guidance to regions for which no inundation maps exist – Ensure NTHMP-funded model code is shared MEASURES – All NTHMP-funded models will meet established standards by – New NTHMP-funded maps will meet established guidelines by – Complete inundation maps for all threatened communities by 2013 (Washington, Oregon, California, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands) – Complete inundation maps for 33% of highly- threatened communities by 2013 (in Alaska and the U.S. Pacific Island Territories) January 2010NTHMP Annual Meeting4

Overview of Tasks to Accomplish Measures TaskMilestone Anticipated Completion Measure 1.1 Establish inundation map guidelinesNov 2009 NTHMP-funded maps meet standards Prioritize communities for inundation mappingNov 2009 Inundation maps for threatened communities 2.1 DEM development in support of inundation mappingSept 2009 Inundation maps for threatened communities 1.3 Establish benchmark procedures for modelsSept 2010 NTHMP-funded models meet standards Propose process for sharing modeling codesSept 2010 NTHMP-funded models meet standards Develop guidelines for non-mapped areasSept 2010 Provide guidance to regions for which no inundation maps exist 1.6a Propose method for models to meet NTHMP standardsSept 2011 NTHMP-funded models meet standards Compare previous maps to NTHMP guidelines/best practicesSept 2011 NTHMP-funded maps meet standards b Test/evaluate method for models to meet NTHMP standardsSept 2012 NTHMP-funded models meet standards Review current mapping with respect to NTHMP guidelinesSept 2012 NTHMP-funded maps meet standards Explore feasibility of quantitative hazard assessmentsSept Recommend quantitative Hazard Assessment MethodSept 2013 January 2010NTHMP Annual Meeting5 TaskMilestone Anticipated Completion Measure Establish inundation map guidelines Final Draft Complete Prioritize communities for inundation mapping DEM Priority List Complete DEM development in support of inundation mapping Method for Development 1.3 Establish benchmark procedures for modelsSept 2010 NTHMP-funded models meet standards Propose process for sharing modeling codesSept 2010 NTHMP-funded models meet standards Develop guidelines for non-mapped areasSept 2010 Provide guidance to regions for which no inundation maps exist 1.6a Propose method for models to meet NTHMP standardsSept 2011 NTHMP-funded models meet standards Compare previous maps to NTHMP guidelines/best practicesSept 2011 NTHMP-funded maps meet standards b Test/evaluate method for models to meet NTHMP standardsSept 2012 NTHMP-funded models meet standards Review current mapping with respect to NTHMP guidelinesSept 2012 NTHMP-funded maps meet standards Explore feasibility of quantitative hazard assessmentsSept Recommend quantitative Hazard Assessment MethodSept 2013 TaskMilestone Anticipated Completion Measure 1.1 Establish inundation map guidelinesNov 2009 NTHMP-funded maps meet standards Prioritize communities for inundation mappingNov 2009 Inundation maps for threatened communities 2.1 DEM development in support of inundation mappingSept 2009 Inundation maps for threatened communities Establish benchmark procedures for models Plan for 2010 Propose process for sharing modeling codes Plan for 2010 Develop guidelines for non-mapped areas Plan for a Propose method for models to meet NTHMP standardsSept 2011 NTHMP-funded models meet standards Compare previous maps to NTHMP guidelines/best practicesSept 2011 NTHMP-funded maps meet standards b Test/evaluate method for models to meet NTHMP standardsSept 2012 NTHMP-funded models meet standards Review current mapping with respect to NTHMP guidelinesSept 2012 NTHMP-funded maps meet standards Explore feasibility of quantitative hazard assessmentsSept Recommend quantitative Hazard Assessment MethodSept 2013

MMS Meeting Schedule to address Tasks Meeting / Workshop Focus MMS Meeting Task 1.1 Task 1.2 Task 1.3 Task 1.4 Task 1.5 Task 1.6a Task 1.7 Task 1.6b Task 1.8 Task 1.9 Technical Workshop Task 2.1Task 2.2 Meeting / Workshop Focus MMS Meeting Task 1.1 Task 1.2 Task 1.3 Task 1.4 Task 1.5 Task 1.6a Task 1.7 Task 1.6b Task 1.8 Task 1.9 Spring 2010 Technical Workshop Task 2.1(workshop cancelled) Task 2.2 Fall 2010 Benchmark Workshop Task 1.3 (new) January 2010NTHMP Annual Meeting6

2009 Action Item Status – Task 1.1 Establish inundation map guidelines - Complete – Assigned by the NTHMP CC – Mapping and modeling draft guidelines developed at the April 2009 Spring meeting of the NTHMP MMS – Guidelines under final at NTHMP Annual Meeting – Issues Differences between the State / Federal funding cycles and fiscal years generates confusion on deliverable dates. MMS is assuming “by 2010” means end of calendar year January 2010NTHMP Annual Meeting7

2009 Action Item Status – Task 1.2 Establish a prioritized list of communities for which to develop inundation maps - Complete – Assigned by the NTHMP CC – National DEM list developed and prioritized for 2010 – 2012 efforts. List will be reviewed and updated annually. – Success: List is being used to coordinate DEM development across NTHMP, NOAA Forecast, and other NOAA Projects – Issues MMS developed National DEM priority list. Each DEM may have multiple priority communities. MMS is requesting each NTHMP Partner to clearly list communities that have been mapped and communities that will be mapped in semi-annual reports. January 2010NTHMP Annual Meeting8

2009 Action Item Status – Task 2.1 DEM development in support of inundation mapping – Assigned by the NTHMP CC – CC approved Contingency Funding for NGDC to develop DEMs (from the National DEM list) for NTHMP Partners through MMS. – This solution negated the requirement for a DEM-focused workshop (proposed) in 2009 – Issues National DEM priority list will be reviewed annually based on input from NTHMP Partners to ensure priority communities are covered and adjust priorities based on data and other influences. January 2010NTHMP Annual Meeting9

Summary MMS 2009 Annual Meeting Held in Boulder, CO April , 2009 Addressed Tasks 1.1 and 1.2 – Developed a national DEM Priority List and Inundation Mapping List – Completed Draft Mapping and Modeling Guidelines (finalized Guidelines at National Meeting) Drafted Benchmark Procedures (2010 Task 1.3) January 2010NTHMP Annual Meeting10 NTHMP MMS Spring Meeting, April 2009

Mapping and Modeling Subcommittee 2010 Planned Activities Task NameNTHMP Performance Metric Supported Requested Funds Spring 2010 Annual MMS Meeting and Fall 2010 Benchmark Workshop 1.3 Establish benchmark procedures for models All NTHMP-funded models will meet established standards by 2012 $60K ($20K MMS focus meeting & $40k Benchmark Workshop- Travel to be Executed within NOAA) 1.4 All NTHMP-funded model code shall be open source Ensure NTHMP-funded model code is shared 1.5 Develop guidelines to establish areas of inundation for non-mapped and low hazard areas Provide guidance to regions for which no inundation maps exist concerning tsunami threatened areas DEM Development Carried Out by NGDC Develop high-resolution DEMs for 4 communities Develop inundation maps for all communities with high tsunami hazard $150K Total Contingency Funding Request for 2010 (Approved)$210K January 2010NTHMP Annual Meeting11

2010 Action Item Status – Task 1.3 Establish a benchmark procedure for models by 2010 – Assigned by the NTHMP CC – Action is in the planning phase with draft benchmark procedures developed – Will plan and hold a Benchmark Workshop in Fall 2010 – Issues Cost for workshop not well known. $60K approved must cover both the workshop and MMS 2010 Focus Meeting. Funding does not cover cost of benchmarking models. January 2010NTHMP Annual Meeting12

2010 Action Item Status – Task 1.4 Propose process for sharing modeling code to ensure any NTHMP-funded model code is shared – Assigned by the NTHMP CC “To improve coordination between the different mapping efforts funded by the NTHMP, source code used to compute expected runup should be shared.” – Status: Would like additional clarification prior to addressing this task at the MMS annual meeting in the Spring 2010 – Issues Are there constraints on processes proposed, anticipating that managing versioning, sharing, and support may require additional resources? NOAA is working on a plan that may impact access to NOAA model source code. MMS would need to see the plan to assess impact on this milestone. January 2010NTHMP Annual Meeting13

2010 Action Item Status – Task 1.5 Develop guidelines to establish areas of inundation for non-mapped and low hazard areas by 2010 – Assigned by the NTHMP CC – Status: Plan to address this task at the MMS annual meeting in the Spring 2010 – Issues None at this time January 2010NTHMP Annual Meeting14

Milestone Schedule - Oct 2008 to Sep 2010 (Proposed in 2008) Objective Task Key Milestone/Deliverables Expected Date of Completion Funding Request Objective 1. Annual 3-Day MMS Meetings in 2009 and 2010 Task 1.1Establish inundation map guidelinesNov 2009$20,000 Task 1.2Prioritize communities for inundation mappingNov 2009 Task 1.3Establish benchmark procedures for modelsSept 2010$20,000 Task 1.4Propose process for sharing modeling codesSept 2010 Task 1.5Develop guidelines for non-mapped areasSept 2010 Objective 2. Bi-Annual Technical Workshop $10,000 Task 2.1DEM development in support of inundation mappingSept 2009 Total Requested for :$50,000 January 2010NTHMP Annual Meeting15

Milestone Schedule - Oct 2008 to Sep 2010 (Contingency Funding Request in 2009) Objective Task Key Milestone/Deliverables Expected Date of Completion Funding Required Objective 1. Annual 3-Day MMS Meeting Held April 2009 Task 1.1Establish inundation map guidelinesMay 2009$12,355* Task 1.2Prioritize communities for inundation mappingDec 2009 Objective 2. Annual 3-Day MMS Spring Meeting & Fall Workshop in 2010 Task 1.3Establish benchmark procedures for modelsNov 2010 $20,000 Task 1.4Propose process for sharing modeling codesNov 2010 Task 1.5Develop guidelines for non-mapped areasNov 2010 Task 2.1 DEM development workshop cancelled – Apr 2009 Fall 2009 (New)Host NTHMP Benchmarking WorkshopOct-Nov 2010$40,000 Total Requested for :$72,355 Total Contingency Funds Approved for :$60,000 * Final cost of April 2009 meeting after $8,301 carryover and cancellation of DEM Workshop, transfer pending January 2010NTHMP Annual Meeting16

ADDITIONAL SLIDES Extra funding and reporting slides for use as needed or time available

National DEM Priority List Developed by the NTHMP MMS April 2009 Meeting NTHMP MMS funding 4 DEMs per year – Developed at NGDC, typically covering multiple communities – Developed to Partner / MMS standards & guidelines – Priority influenced by data availability, upcoming data collection campaigns, NOAA DEM development, etc. MMS will revisit list annually and adjust as necessary List already improving coordination between NOAA and Partner States January 2010NTHMP Annual Meeting18

NTHMP DEM Web Map Viewer Share-point for NTHMP Partner DEMs Identify completed & planned DEMs See extents View information about DEM Contact source or download DEM January 2010NTHMP Annual Meeting19

MMS Milestone Schedule Oct 2010 to Sept 2011 Objective Task Key Milestone/Deliverables Expected Date of Completion Funding Request Objective 1. Annual 3-Day MMS Spring Meeting in 2011 $20,000 Task 1.6Propose method for models to meet NTHMP standardsNov 2011 Task 1.7 Compare previous maps to NTHMP guidelines/best practices Nov 2011 Total Meeting Support:$20,000 Inundation maps for all communities with high tsunami hazard Develop 4 high-resolution DEMsDec 2011 $150,000* Total DEM Support:$150,000 * Contingency funding Total Funding Request:$170,000 January 2010NTHMP Annual Meeting20

MMS Milestone Schedule Oct 2011 to Sept 2012 Objective Task Key Milestone/Deliverables Expected Date of Completion Funding Request Objective 1. Annual 3-Day Spring MMS Meeting in 2012 $20,000 Task 1.6 Test/evaluate method for models to meet NTHMP standards Sept 2012 Task 1.8 Review current mapping with respect to NTHMP guidelines Sept 2012 Objective 2. Bi-Annual Technical Workshop$22,000 Task 2.2Explore feasibility of quantitative hazard assessmentsSept 2012 Total Meeting Support:$42,000 Inundation maps for all communities with high tsunami hazard Develop 4 high-resolution DEMsDec 2011$150,000* Total DEM Support:$150,000 * Contingency funding Total Funding Request:$192,000 January 2010NTHMP Annual Meeting21

MMS Milestone Schedule Oct 2012 to Sept 2013 Objective Task Key Milestone/Deliverables Expected Date of Completion Funding Request Objective 1. Annual 3-Day MMS Meeting in 2013 $20,000 Task 1.9Recommend quantitative hazard assessment methodologySept 2013 Total Meeting Support:$20,000 Inundation maps for all communities with high tsunami hazard Develop 4 high-resolution DEMsDec 2011 $150,000* Total DEM Support:$150,000 * Contingency funding Total Funding Request:$172,000 Total Requested for 2009 to 2012: (includes revised budget request for 2009 and 2010 spring meetings & DEM development) $606,355 January 2010NTHMP Annual Meeting22