Chapter 7 Sections 1-4 Applying Population Ecology: The Human Population

Key Concepts Factors affecting population size Factors affecting population size Human population problems Human population problems Managing population problems Managing population problems Urban growth Urban growth Resource and environmental problems in urban areas Resource and environmental problems in urban areas Transportation in urban areas Transportation in urban areas Achieving sustainable cities Achieving sustainable cities

Is the World Overpopulated? billion people by billion people by 2050 Limited resources Limited resources Environmental impacts (I=PAT) Environmental impacts (I=PAT) Some say no- Longer lifespans Some say no- Longer lifespans Economic growth- stimulated by pop. increase Economic growth- stimulated by pop. increase Religion and population growth Religion and population growth Freedom and population growth Freedom and population growth Poverty - 20% people without basic necessities Poverty - 20% people without basic necessities Ecological footprint Ecological footprint Fig. 7-1, p. 128

Is the World Overpopulated? Fig. 7-1, p. 128 Click for Current US and World Population

Factors Affecting Human Population Size Population change equation Population change equation Population change = (Births +Immigration) – (Deaths + Emigration) Crude birth rate = # live births per 1,000 people per year Crude birth rate = # live births per 1,000 people per year Crude death rate = # deaths per 1,000 people per year Crude death rate = # deaths per 1,000 people per year Global population growth = 1.2% = 214,000 people per day (97% in developing countries) Global population growth = 1.2% = 214,000 people per day (97% in developing countries) Rule of 70: 70/ percentage growth rate = doubling time in years Rule of 70: 70/ percentage growth rate = doubling time in years Doubling time: 70/1.2 = 58 years Doubling time: 70/1.2 = 58 years

Fig. 7-2a, p. 130 Average crude birth rateAverage crude death rate World All developed countries All developing countries Developing countries (w/o China) Average Crude Birth and Death Rates World’s birth rate = 2.1% World’s death rate = 0.9% World’s pop. Growth rate = 1.2% Crude Growth Rate ÷ 10 = % Growth Rate

Average crude birth rateAverage crude death rate Africa Latin America Asia Oceania United States North America Europe Fig. 7-2b, p. 130 Average Crude Birth and Death Rates

Animation Current and projected population sizes by region.

How Did the Human Population Increase So Rapidly? 1. Human intelligence and adaptation - enabled expansion to diverse habitats & new climate zones 2. Agriculture - feeds more people per unit area 3. Medical technologies and sanitation - controls infectious disease

Describing Population Changes Replacement-level fertility = # children a couple must bear to replace themselves (approx ) Replacement-level fertility = # children a couple must bear to replace themselves (approx ) Total fertility rate (TFR) = average # children woman has in her reproductive years (2005 TFR = 2.7) (TFR in MDCs = 1.6 : LDCs = 3.0) Total fertility rate (TFR) = average # children woman has in her reproductive years (2005 TFR = 2.7) (TFR in MDCs = 1.6 : LDCs = 3.0) Projecting global populations : 2050 projected pop. = billion Most growth (97%) expected in developing countries Projecting global populations : 2050 projected pop. = billion Most growth (97%) expected in developing countries US fertility rates - see figure 7-4, p. 131 US fertility rates - see figure 7-4, p. 131

World Population Projections Fig. 7-3, p. 131

Fig. 7-4, p. 131 US Fertility Rates ( )

47 years 77 years 8% 81% 15% 83% 10% 98% 2% 99% 10% 52% $15 $ Life expectancy Married women working outside the home High school graduates Homes with flush toilets Homes with electricity Living in suburbs Hourly manufacturing job wage (adjusted for inflation) Homocides per 100,000 people Fig. 7-5, p. 132 Major Changes in US Society ( )

Factors Affecting Birth Rates and Fertility Rates *** Child labor- very important in developing countries Child labor- very important in developing countries Cost of raising and educating children - more expensive in developed countries Cost of raising and educating children - more expensive in developed countries Availability of pension systems - pensions reduce need for children to support in old age Availability of pension systems - pensions reduce need for children to support in old age Urbanization- better access to family planning services in cities Urbanization- better access to family planning services in cities Education and employment of women - TFR drops with increasing education & employment opportunities Education and employment of women - TFR drops with increasing education & employment opportunities Infant mortality rate - Directly proportional to TFR Infant mortality rate - Directly proportional to TFR Average age of marriage- Fewer children when marriage age ≥ 25 years Average age of marriage- Fewer children when marriage age ≥ 25 years Abortion - 46 million abortions yearly (20 million illegal) Abortion - 46 million abortions yearly (20 million illegal) Availability of birth control Availability of birth control Culture, religious values, and traditions Culture, religious values, and traditions

Extremely Effective Highly Effective Total abstinence Sterilization Vaginal ring IUD with slow-release hormones IUD plus spermicide Vaginal pouch (“female condom”) IUD Condom (good brand) plus spermicide Oral contraceptive 100% 99.6% 98-99% 98% 97% 95% 93% Fig. 7-6a, p. 133 Very Effective Birth Control Methods

Effective Cervical cap Condom (good brand) Diaphragm plus spermicide Rhythm method (Billings, Sympto-Thermal) Vaginal sponge impreg- nated with spermicide Spermicide (foam) 89% 86% 84% 83% 82% Fig. 7-6b, p. 133 Mostly Effective Birth Control Methods

Moderately Effective Unreliable Spermicide (creams, jellies, suppositories) Withdrawal Rhythm method (daily temperature readings) Condom (cheap brand) Douche Chance (no method) 75% 74% 70% 40% 10% Fig. 7-6c, p. 133 Least Effective Birth Control Methods

Factors Affecting Death Rates Life expectancy : global average years = 67 Life expectancy : global average years = 67 Infant mortality rate = # of babies out of every 1,000 who die before 1st birthday ** Best single measure of a society’s quality of life (reflects nutrition, health care) 46 countries have lower infant mortality rates than USA Infant mortality rate = # of babies out of every 1,000 who die before 1st birthday ** Best single measure of a society’s quality of life (reflects nutrition, health care) 46 countries have lower infant mortality rates than USA Improvements: Food, medicine, nutrition, medicine, sanitation, hygiene, water supply Improvements: Food, medicine, nutrition, medicine, sanitation, hygiene, water supply

Immigration into the US 41% of annual population growth 41% of annual population growth Source of immigrants into the US Pre 1960: Mostly Europe Post 1960: Latin America (53%), Asia (25%), Europe (14%) Source of immigrants into the US Pre 1960: Mostly Europe Post 1960: Latin America (53%), Asia (25%), Europe (14%) Arguments to reduce immigration : 58% support Allow population stabilize Reduce environmental impact Arguments to reduce immigration : 58% support Allow population stabilize Reduce environmental impact Arguments for immigration “Give me your hungry, your tired your poor…’ Tax revenues $$$ immigrants occupy menial, low-paying jobs After 2020 workers will be needed as Boomers retire Arguments for immigration “Give me your hungry, your tired your poor…’ Tax revenues $$$ immigrants occupy menial, low-paying jobs After 2020 workers will be needed as Boomers retire

CNN Video- “Immigration”

Fig. 7-8, p. 135 Expanding Rapidly Guatemala Nigeria Saudi Arabia MaleFemale Prereproductive ages 0-14Reproductive ages 15-44Postreproductive ages Population Age Structures MaleFemaleMaleFemaleMaleFemale Expanding Slowly United States Australia Canada Stable Spain Austria Greece Declining Germany Bulgaria Italy In 2005, 29% of people on planet were younger than 15 years old % % % Negative growth

Animation Examples of age structure interaction

Fig. 7-10, p. 136 Tracking the US Baby Boom Generation

Animation U.S. age structure interaction.

Effects of Population Decline 40 nations have stable or declining populations 40 nations have stable or declining populations UN predicts that pop of most develop countries will stabilize by 2050 (not USA) UN predicts that pop of most develop countries will stabilize by 2050 (not USA) Rapid declines can create severe social and economic problems Rapid declines can create severe social and economic problems Labor and social security problems Labor and social security problems Social and economic impacts of AIDS Social and economic impacts of AIDS

Solutions: Influencing Population Size ***Demographic transition ***Demographic transition Family planning Family planning Improve health care Improve health care Empowering women- worldwide, women account for 66% of hours worked, but receive 10% of world’s income. See stats of p.138 Empowering women- worldwide, women account for 66% of hours worked, but receive 10% of world’s income. See stats of p.138 Developing national population policies Developing national population policies Improve education, especially for women Improve education, especially for women Increase involvement of men in parenting Increase involvement of men in parenting Reduce poverty Reduce poverty Reduce unsustainable consumption Reduce unsustainable consumption

Fig. 7-11, p. 137 Stage 1 Preindustrial Stage 2 Transitional Stage 3 Industrial Stage 4 Postindustrial LowIncreasingVery highDecreasingLowZeroNegative Birth rate Total population Death rate Growth rate over time Demographic Transition Low High Relative population size Birth rate and death rate (number per 1,000 per year)

Animation- Animation- Demographic transition model

Case Study: Hindrances to Family Planning Programs in India Poor planning of family planning programs Poor planning of family planning programs Bureaucratic inefficiency Bureaucratic inefficiency Low status of women Low status of women Extreme poverty Extreme poverty Lack of administrative and financial support Lack of administrative and financial support

Case Study: Family Planning in China Economic incentives - extra food, larger pensions, better housing, $$ Economic incentives - extra food, larger pensions, better housing, $$ Free medical care for participants Free medical care for participants Preferential treatment for participants - free school tuition Preferential treatment for participants - free school tuition Very coercive and intrusive - free sterilization, contraception, Very coercive and intrusive - free sterilization, contraception, Human rights violations- gender imbalance, abortions, infanticide Human rights violations- gender imbalance, abortions, infanticide China’s Pop could peak in 2040, then decline China’s Pop could peak in 2040, then decline

Fig. 7-12, p. 139 Percentage of world population Population Population (2025) (estimated) Illiteracy (%of adults) Population under age 15(%) Population growth rate (%) Total fertility rate Infant mortality rate Life expectancy GDP PPP per capita 17% 20% 1.1 billion 1.3 billion 1.4 billion 1.63 billion 47% 17% 36% 22% 1.6% 0.6% 3.0 children per woman (down from 5.3 in 1970) 1.7 children per woman (down from 5.7 in 1972) years 71 years $2,880 $4,980 Demographic Data on India and China Percent living below $2 per day