Figure 1 SOURCE: Kaiser Family Foundation analysis of the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey 2010 Cost and Use file. Selected Demographic Characteristics.

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Presentation transcript:

Figure 1 SOURCE: Kaiser Family Foundation analysis of the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey 2010 Cost and Use file. Selected Demographic Characteristics of Medicare Beneficiaries, 2010 Male 45% Female 55% White 77% Black 10% Hispanic 9% % <65 16% % % Other 5%

Figure 2 NOTE: ADL is activity of daily living. SOURCE: Kaiser Family Foundation analysis of the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey 2010 Cost and Use file. Selected Measures of Health Status of the Medicare Population, 2010 Percent of all Medicare beneficiaries: 4+ Chronic Conditions Functional Impairment (1+ ADL Limitations) Cognitive/Mental Impairment Fair/Poor Health

Figure 3 25%: incomes below $14,400 50%: incomes below $23,500 5% : incomes above $93,900 NOTE: Total household income for couples is split equally between husbands and wives to estimate income for married beneficiaries. SOURCE: Urban Institute analysis of DYNASIM for the Kaiser Family Foundation. Distribution of Medicare Beneficiaries By Income, 2013

Figure 4 Percent of Traditional Medicare population with: NOTE: Analysis excludes beneficiaries enrolled in Medicare Advantage. SOURCES: Kaiser Family Foundation analysis of the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey 2010 Cost and Use file. Medicare Beneficiaries’ Utilization of Selected Medicare- Covered Services, 2010 Prescription drug use Physician office visit Inpatient hospital stay Home health visit Skilled nursing facility stay Hospice days

Figure 5 NOTE: *Estimate statistically significantly different from the non-Medicare household estimate at the 95 percent confidence level. SOURCE: Kaiser Family Foundation analysis of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Expenditure Survey Interview and Expense Files, Distribution of Average Household Spending by Medicare and Non-Medicare Households, 2012 Transportation Health Care Non-Medicare Household SpendingMedicare Household Spending Average Household Spending, 2012 = $53,000 Average Household Spending, 2012 = $33,993*

Figure 6 NOTE: Analysis excludes beneficiaries enrolled in Medicare Advantage plans. Premiums includes Medicare Parts A and B and other types of health insurance beneficiaries may have (Medigap, employer-sponsored insurance, and other public and private sources). Estimates do not sum to total due to rounding. SOURCE: Kaiser Family Foundation analysis of the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey 2010 Cost and Use file. Distribution of Average Total Out-of-Pocket Spending on Services and Premiums by Medicare Beneficiaries, 2010 Average Total Out-of-Pocket Spending on Services and Premiums, 2010: $4,745 Long-term care facility Medical providers and supplies Prescription drugs Dental Inpatient hospital Skilled nursing facility Outpatient hospital Home health Premiums Services

Figure 7 NOTE: Analysis excludes beneficiaries enrolled in Medicare Advantage plans. Premiums includes Medicare Parts A and B and other types of health insurance beneficiaries may have (Medigap, employer-sponsored insurance, and other public and private sources). SOURCE: Kaiser Family Foundation analysis of the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey 2010 Cost and Use file. Medicare Beneficiaries’ Average Total Out-of-Pocket Spending on Services and Premiums, by Self-Reported Health Status and Age, 2010 Age Health status

Figure 8 NOTE: *Amount corresponds to the estimated catastrophic coverage limit for non-low-income subsidy enrollees ($6,680 for LIS enrollees), which corresponds to True Out-of-Pocket (TrOOP) spending of $4,700 (the amount used to determine when an enrollee reaches the catastrophic coverage threshold. SOURCE: Kaiser Family Foundation illustration of standard Medicare drug benefit for 2015 (standard benefit parameter update from Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, 2014). Amounts rounded to nearest dollar. Standard Medicare Prescription Drug Benefit, 2015 Deductible = $320 Initial Coverage Limit = $2,960 in Total Drug Costs Plan pays 75% Plan pays 15%; Medicare pays 80% Enrollee pays 5% Enrollee pays 25% Catastrophic Coverage Limit = $7,062 in Estimated Total Drug Costs* Brand-name drugs Enrollee pays 45% Plan pays 5% 50% manufacturer discount Generic drugs Enrollee pays 65% Plan pays 35% INITIAL COVERAGE PERIOD COVERAGE GAP (“Doughnut Hole”) CATASTROPHIC COVERAGE DEDUCTIBLE Enrollee pays 100%

Figure 9 NOTE: LIS is low-income subsidy. Total Part D and Medicare enrollment based on 2014 intermediate estimates. Part D non-LIS enrollment includes enrollees in employer/group waiver plans (6.8 million in 2014). SOURCE: Kaiser Family Foundation analysis of data from the 2014 Annual Report of the Boards of Trustees of the Federal Hospital Insurance and Federal Supplementary Medical Insurance Trust Funds. Distribution of Sources of Prescription Drug Coverage Among Medicare Beneficiaries, 2014 Total Medicare Enrollment, 2014 = 54.0 million Total Part D Enrollment (excluding employer plans), 2014 = 38.1 million 5%

Figure 10 NOTE: Includes MSAs, cost plans, demonstration plans, and Special Needs Plans as well as other Medicare Advantage plans. SOURCE: MPR/Kaiser Family Foundation analysis of CMS Medicare Advantage enrollment files, , and MPR, “Tracking Medicare Health and Prescription Drug Plans Monthly Report,” ; enrollment numbers from March of the respective year, with the exception of 2006, which is from April. Medicare Private Plan Enrollment, In millions: % of Medicare Beneficiaries 18%17%15%14%13% 16%19%22%23%24%25%27%28%30%

Figure 11 NOTE: Includes MSAs, cost plans and demonstrations. Includes Special Needs Plans as well as other Medicare Advantage plans. SOURCE: MPR/Kaiser Family Foundation analysis of CMS State/County Market Penetration Files, Share of Medicare Beneficiaries Enrolled in Medicare Advantage Plans by State, 2014

Figure 12 SOURCE: Kaiser Family Foundation analysis of the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey 2010 Cost and Use file. Distribution of Sources of Supplemental Coverage Among Medicare Beneficiaries, 2010 Total Medicare Beneficiaries, 2010 = 48.4 Million Employer-sponsored + Medigap Medicare Advantage + Medicaid Medicare Advantage + Employer-sponsored Other coverage/ combinations No supplemental coverage Medicare Advantage only Medicaid only Medigap only Employer-sponsored only

Figure 13 NOTE: Tests found no statistical difference from estimate for the previous year shown (p<.05). No statistical tests are conducted for years prior to SOURCE: Kaiser/HRET Survey of Employer-Sponsored Health Benefits, ; KPMG Survey of Employer-Sponsored Health Benefits, 1991, 1993, 1995, 1998; The Health Insurance Association of America (HIAA), Percent of Large Firms (200+ Workers) Offering Retiree Health Benefits to Active Workers,

Figure 14 SOURCE: Kaiser Family Foundation analysis of a 5 percent sample of Medicare claims from the Chronic Conditions Data Warehouse, 2010, and Kaiser Commission on Medicaid and the Uninsured and Urban Institute estimates based on FY2010 MSIS. Number of Beneficiaries Enrolled in Medicare, Medicaid, and Both Programs, 2010 Dually eligible 10 million Medicare 40 million Medicaid 56 million Total Medicare beneficiaries, 2010: 50 million Total Medicaid beneficiaries, 2010: 66 million

Figure 15 SOURCE Medicare Payment Advisory Commission and Medicaid and CHIP Payment and Access Commission, Data Book: Beneficiaries Dually Eligible for Medicare and Medicaid (January 2015). Dual-Eligible Beneficiaries as a Share of Medicare and Medicaid Enrollment and Spending, 2010 Total Medicare spending, 2010: $498.9 Billion Total Medicare enrollment, 2010: 48.9 million Total Medicaid spending, 2010: $340.5 billion Total Medicaid enrollment, 2010: 67.2 Million MedicareMedicaid

Figure 16 SOURCE: Kaiser Family Foundation analysis of the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey 2010 Cost and Use file. Comparison of Characteristics of Dual-Eligible Medicare Beneficiaries and All Other Medicare Beneficiaries Percent of beneficiaries: 3+ chronic conditions Cognitive/mental impairment Fair or poor health Under age 65 Long-term care facility resident

Figure 17 SOURCE: Kaiser Family Foundation analysis of a 5 percent sample of Medicare claims from the Chronic Conditions Data Warehouse, Distribution of Dual-Eligible Medicare Beneficiaries, by Amount of Medicare Spending, 2010 Average Spending, 2010 = $17,745 Median Spending, 2010 = $7,464

Figure 18 NOTE: Excludes respondents who did not have Medicare eligibility for the full calendar year, such as new enrollees and decedents. Also excludes respondents who did not indicate incomes within specified ranges. All subgroup estimates are statistically significantly different from ‘overall’ estimate. SOURCE: Kaiser Family Foundation analysis of the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey 2012 Access to Care file. Measures of Access to Care Among Medicare Beneficiaries by Demographic Characteristics, 2012 During the past year, percent of beneficiaries reporting that they… Overall Age Income Health Status …delayed getting health care due to cost…had trouble getting needed care

Figure 19 NOTE: Pediatricians were excluded from Medicare and private non-capitated insurance categories. Physicians who did not respond to relevant survey questions were also excluded. The survey did not ask responding physicians to distinguish Medicare Advantage plans from traditional Medicare or other private insurance. Acceptance rates for patients with insurance status of self-pay or worker’s compensation are not shown. *Indicates difference from Medicare is statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. SOURCE: Kaiser Family Foundation analysis of National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey, National Electronic Health Records Survey, Percent of Office-Based Physicians Accepting New Patients with Medicare and Other Types of Insurance, 2012

Figure 20 NOTE: Pediatricians are excluded from this analysis. Physicians were not asked to distinguish between patients in traditional Medicare and Medicare Advantage plans. SOURCE: Kaiser Family Foundation analysis of National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey, National Electronic Health Records Survey, Percent of Physicians Accepting New Medicare Patients by State, 2012 ≤80%81% - 89%≥90% (4 states)(16 states, DC)(30 states)

Figure 21 NOTE: Medicare Shared Savings Programs (MSSPs) include 35 Advanced Payment Model participants. Two MSSP participants in Puerto Rico are not displayed on the map. SOURCE: Kaiser Family Foundation analysis of data on ACOs, as of March 4, 2015 from Data.CMS.gov. Accountable Care Organizations (ACOs) in Medicare, 2015 Pioneer ACO participants Medicare Shared Savings Program participants

Figure 22 NOTES: National readmission rates include Medicare fee-for-service unplanned hospitalizations for any cause within 30 days of discharge from an initial hospitalization for either heart failure, heart attach, or pneumonia. Rates are risk-adjusted for certain patient characteristics, such as age and other medical conditions. SOURCE: Kaiser Family Foundation analysis of CMS Hospital Compare data files. Medicare Hospital Readmission Rates, Diagnosis of initial hospitalization

Figure 23 NOTE: All amounts are for federal fiscal year Consists of Medicare spending minus income from premiums and other offsetting receipts. 2 Other category includes spending on other mandatory outlays minus income from offsetting receipts). SOURCE: Congressional Budget Office, Budget and Economic Outlook: 2015 to 2025 (January 2015). Distribution of Federal Outlays, 2014 Total Federal Outlays, 2014 = $3.5 Trillion Net Federal Medicare Outlays, 2014 = $505 Billion

Figure 24 NOTE: *Other services includes ambulance services, ambulatory surgical centers, community mental health centers, durable medical equipment, federally qualified health centers, hospice, hospital outpatient services not paid for using the outpatient prospective payment system, outpatient dialysis, outpatient therapy services, lab services, rural health clinics, Part B drugs; also includes amounts paid to providers and recovered. SOURCE: Kaiser Family Foundation analysis of data from Congressional Budget Office, 2015 Medicare Baseline (March 2015). Distribution of Medicare Benefit Payments, 2014 Total Medicare Benefit Payments, 2014 = $597 billion

Figure 25 NOTE: Excludes Medicare Advantage enrollees. SOURCE: Kaiser Family Foundation analysis of the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey 2010 Cost and Use file. Distribution of Traditional Medicare Beneficiaries and Medicare Spending, 2010 Total Number of Traditional Medicare Beneficiaries, 2010: 36.3 million Total Traditional Medicare Spending, 2010: $385 billion Average per capita Traditional Medicare spending: $10,584 Average per capita Traditional Medicare spending among top 10%: $61,722 Average per capita Traditional Medicare spending among bottom 90%: $4,897

Figure 26 NOTE: Total also includes durable medical equipment, other professional services, and other personal health care/products. Medicare spending does not exclude income from premiums and other offsetting receipts. Medicare coverage of nursing home care reflects spending on freestanding skilled nursing facilities only (not custodial long-term care services). SOURCE: Kaiser Family Foundation analysis of data from Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, Office of the Actuary, National Health Statistics Group, National Health Expenditures Tables (December 2014). Percent of Personal Health Expenditures Accounted for by Medicare, 2013 Expenditures in Billions Medicare$551$34$75$243$130$35$0.5 Total$2,469$80$271$937$587$156$111

Figure 27 NOTE: All amounts are for federal fiscal years; amounts are in billions and consist of Medicare spending minus income from premiums and other offsetting receipts. SOURCE: Kaiser Family Foundation based on data from Congressional Budget Office, Updated Budget Projections: 2015 to 2025 (March 2015); The 2014 Long-Term Budget Outlook (July 2014). Medicare Spending and Percent of Federal Outlays and GDP, %13.3%13.2%14.2%14.4%14.3% 13.9%13.6%14.3%14.5%14.8%15.8% 15.2%16.2% Share of: Federal Outlays Actual Net OutlaysProjected Net Outlays 3.0%3.1%2.9%3.0%2.9% 3.0%2.9%2.8%3.0%3.1%3.2%3.4% 3.3%3.6% GDP

Figure 28 NOTE: *Assumes 0.6-percent physician payment rate increase from 2016 through 2023, consistent with the average update over the 10-year period ending with March 31, 2015; based on the spending data from the 2014 Medicare Trustees report. SOURCE: Kaiser Family Foundation analysis of Medicare spending data from Boards of Trustees and Congressional Budget Office (CBO); private health insurance spending data from the CMS National Health Expenditure data; GDP data from CBO and U.S. Census Bureau, and CPI data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (historical) and CBO (projected). Historical and Projected Average Annual Growth Rate in Medicare Per Capita Spending and Other Measures Actual ( ) Projected ( ) Medicare per capita spending Private health insurance per capita spending GDP per capita CPIMedicare per capita spending* Private health insurance per capita spending GDP per capita CPI

Figure 29 $575.8 billion$251.1 billion$255.0 billion$69.7 billion SOURCE: Kaiser Family Foundation based on data from 2014 Annual Report of the Boards of Trustees of the Federal Hospital Insurance and Federal Supplementary Medical Insurance Trust Funds. Sources of Medicare Revenue, 2013

Figure 30 SOURCE: Intermediate projections from Annual Reports of the Boards of Trustees of the Federal Hospital Insurance and Federal Supplementary Medical Insurance Trust Funds. Solvency of the Medicare Part A Hospital Insurance Trust Fund Year of Medicare Trustees Report

Figure 31 SOURCE: Kaiser Family Foundation based on the 2014 Annual Report of the Boards of Trustees of the Federal Hospital Insurance and Federal Supplementary Medical Insurance Trust Funds. Number of Medicare Beneficiaries and Number of Workers Per Beneficiary, In millions