Shashin Amatya Yi Gao Lauren Reuther INFSYS-6833 Group B Homicide

Our Objectives Problems Background Our Approach Analysis Prediction Improving Prediction Recommendation Homicide

Accurately predict homicide in St. Louis City Help effectively allocate required resources in the area Homicide

Limited datasets Homicide numbers don’t always match Hard to obtain variable data for period of time Gang Activity Drug Related Violence Hard to obtain Historical Data Yearly Population Density Yearly Income by Neighborhood Yearly Unemployment Rate by Neighborhood Yearly Percentage of People with Kids Yearly Percentage of Races by Neighborhood Homicide

Total Population: 318, Total Homicide: Total Homicide: th Most dangerous city Violent crime per 100,000 inhabitants: 1,594 Poverty Rate: 26.6% Homicide

We looked at following methods Linear Regression Logarithmic Regression Polynomial Regression Three Month Weighted Moving Average

Following variables might influence homicide rate Population Density Median Household Income Median Home Value Unemployment Rate Race/Ethnicity Education Level Median Age Marital Status Male/Female Ratio Median Home Value Homicide

Used only one substantive variable and time index Forecasts solely based on historical patterns of data Works better with limited datasets Other variables can be ignored Time trend, seasonal adjustment, cyclical component, and irregular component are already included

Used following formula to calculate the value Weighted Average = ((3*2014 month) + (2*2013 month) + (1*2012 month)/6 Homicide By Distributing Weight 50% to the month of % to the month of % to the month of 2012

Homicide Round Up Total Predicted Homicide Round Down Total Predicted Homicide

Homicide Corridor YearMonthNorthSouthCentral 2015Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec1542 Totals Total Predicted Homicides in

Homicide

Homicides are more likely to occur in the North Corridor. Corridor YearMonthNorthSouthCentral 2015Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec1542 Totals Homicide

Providing adequate historical data Properly defining gang and drug related activities Providing accurate data for variables Exploring other modeling methods Properly testing model Readjusting model if needed

Properly reallocating active duty personnel Neighborhood Crime Watch Job creation Deploy programs for citizen awareness Deploy programs to uplift neighborhood situation Homicide

Corridor-Demographics.html#Population