Lars Peter Riishojgaard Global Modeling and Assimilation Office/ Goddard Earth Science and Technology Center THE MOLNIYA ORBIT IMAGER a high-latitude imaging/winds mission concept

Molniya Orbit Imager, Wind Lidar Working Group, 01/17/2006 Science Team Lars Peter Riishojgaard, UMBC, PI Bob Atlas, GSFC, Simulation/impact experiments Dennis Chesters, GSFC, Instrumentation, mission Ken Holmlund, EUMETSAT, Algorithm development Jeff Key, NESDIS/ORA, Data processing Stan Kidder, CIRA, High-latitude applications Paul Menzel, NESDIS/ORA, Cloud applications Jean-Noël Thépaut, ECMWF, Global NWP applications Chris Velden, CIMSS/UW, Algorithm development Tom Vonder Haar, CIRA, Satellite meteorology

Molniya Orbit Imager, Wind Lidar Working Group, 01/17/2006 Goddard proposal team Lars Peter Riishojgard (UMBC/GSFC), PI Maureen Madden, Proposal Manager Bill Cutlip, Goddard New Opportunities Lead Will Mast, Mission Systems Engineer John Oberright, Mission Systems Engineer Bob Bartlett, Instrument Systems Engineer Dennis Chesters, GOES Project Scientist Greg Marr, Flight dynamics

Molniya Orbit Imager, Wind Lidar Working Group, 01/17/2006 Overview High-latitude winds and numerical weather prediction MODIS winds The Molniya Orbit Imager

Molniya Orbit Imager, Wind Lidar Working Group, 01/17/2006 Why a new weather mission? Weather forecasts (global NWP products) have on average become very good Reducing the severity and frequency of forecast busts high on NWS list of priorities Busts over North America often have high-latitude origins There is a lack of high-latitude wind observations

Molniya Orbit Imager, Wind Lidar Working Group, 01/17/2006

MODIS winds Feature tracking algorithms used on MODIS image triplets to derive wind vectors in high latitudes Imagery from two channels, 6.7 µ (WV) and 11µ (clouds) Coverage poleward of ~65 o Positive impact on forecast skill, mostly due to 6.7µ channel

Molniya Orbit Imager, Wind Lidar Working Group, 01/17/2006 Slide courtesy of Jeff Key, CIMSS

Molniya Orbit Imager, Wind Lidar Working Group, 01/17/2006 animation courtesy of CIMSS

Forecast skill at NCEP with MODIS winds (used in update mode)

Improvement in hurricane track forecasting due to assimilation of MODIS winds (slide courtesy of Zapotocny et al.)

Molniya Orbit Imager, Wind Lidar Working Group, 01/17/2006 Status of satellite wind observations No operational satellite winds beyond deg latitude Experimental polar winds from MODIS (until 2008) –Data latency is problematic; 4 to 6 hours after real time –Image refresh rate problematic; 15 minutes is optimal, MODIS: ~100 minutes –No water vapor channel on VIIRS (until at least 2015) –Latitudinal coverage gap between MODIS and GEO winds => Need for “geostationary-type” imagery over high- latitude regions; Molniya Orbit Imager is a good candidate

Molniya Orbit Imager, Wind Lidar Working Group, 01/17/2006 Molniya orbit characteristics Highly eccentric Kepler orbit –Apogee height km (geostationary orbit height ~36000 km) –Perigee height ~600 km –Inclination 63.4 degrees –Orbital period ~11h 58m (half a sidereal day) Location of apogee w.r.t. Earth is fixed and stable! Platform in quasi-stationary imaging position near the apogee for about two thirds of the duration of the orbit Used extensively by USSR (to a lesser degree by the US) for communications purposes First suggested for meteorological applications by Kidder and Vonder Haar (1990)

Molniya Orbit Imager, Wind Lidar Working Group, 01/17/2006

Why Molniya orbit? Quasi-stationary perspective; ideal for feature tracking Apogee height => GEO technology can be reused –Cost savings –Risk reduction Best possible high-latitude coverage per satellite –Fully complements geostationary data; no LEO-like latitudinal coverage gap Simple ground segment; real-time dissemination can be achieved with a single primary ground station, as for GEO –Target is user delivery of calibrated and rectified images within less than 20 minutes and winds within less than 60 minutes of real time

6-hour winds coverage, 4 LEO’s  Apogee winds coverage, Molniya  Molniya OSSE (Observing system simulation experiment) GEOS-4; Atlas et al. Forecast improvement over North America, 48 cases 

Molniya Orbit Imager, Wind Lidar Working Group, 01/17/2006 Additional science applications Sea ice (Thorsten Markus, GSFC; MSC) –Age, temperature, motion, thickness, model validation –Temporal resolution will benefit operational applications, studies of polynyas, leads and marginal ice zone Vegetation/forest fire monitoring (Elaine Prins, NESDIS; MSC) –Detection, intensity monitoring over Alaska, Canada, Siberia –Air quality applications over the Continental US (NOAA, EPA) Volcanic eruptions; SO 2, ash clouds (Arlin Krueger, UMBC; Marianne Guffanti, Dave Schneider, USGS) –NOAA, USGS interested in real-time monitoring capabilities for the Alaska Volcano Observatory for FAA/commercial aviation customers Clouds, fog (Jeff Key, Paul Menzel, NESDIS; Holger Pedersen, UCPH) –Several cloud products planned by CIMSS –Temporal resolution enables e.g. contrail/cirrus studies

Molniya Orbit Imager, Wind Lidar Working Group, 01/17/2006 Additional science applications (II) Polar weather (Gary Hufford, NOAA; Oreste Reale, UMBC/GSFC) –Operational monitoring of high-latitude weather –Development and life cycle of e.g. polar lows Snow-cover and albedo monitoring (Jarkko Koskinen, FMI) –Will benefit from temporal resolution primarily due to higher probability of clear-sky images Regional water quality (Jouni Pulliainen / HUT) –Dynamic phytoplankton and suspended solids mapping in the Baltic Sea Surface radiation balance and SVAT models (Henrik Soegaard, UCPH) –Temporal resolution enables incorporation of the diurnal cycle in land- surface temperature, variability of aerosol loading and humidity in SVAT (Soil Vegetation Atmosphere Transfer) models

Molniya Orbit Imager, Wind Lidar Working Group, 01/17/2006 Mission level requirements High temporal (15 minutes) and spatial (1 km VIS, 2 km IR) resolution imagery for all areas N of 60 degrees N for multitemporal applications and derived products –Full-disc view every 15 minutes within 60% of apogee –Special events rapid-scan capability: 1000 x 1000 km in one minute Nominal 3-year mission duration –Nominal end of life for MODIS is 2008; no water water channel on VIIRS until 2015 (earliest possible date); 2010 launch strongly desirable Real-time “operational” dissemination of images and derived products

Molniya Orbit Imager, Wind Lidar Working Group, 01/17/2006 Mission implementation studies Overall mission design based on series of concurrent engineering studies by the Integrated Design Capability at Goddard Key IDC results: –Mission is technically feasible and classified as “low risk” –Total costs of three-year mission: $275M (with 30% margin) Space segment –Instrument vendor selected (Partnership Opportunity Document) –S/C proposals from four vendors currently under evaluation Ground segment –NESDIS is helping to draft plans for data processing chain and has indicated possibility of ground support (Fairbanks station) –Finland has committed in principle to ground support (Sodankyla station; data processing)

Molniya Orbit Imager, Wind Lidar Working Group, 01/17/ MOI Spacecraft (IMDC flight configuration) Instrument Sensor Module Instrument Main Electronics Instrument Scan Control Instrument Cooler Control

Molniya Orbit Imager, Wind Lidar Working Group, 01/17/2006 Molniya Orbit Imager status Mature baseline mission concept –Extensive pre-Phase A study work funded by Goddard, supplemented with a strong industry participation –Total cost of 3-year mission ~$275M –Goddard Technical Management Review (Office of Mission Success), 07/2005: “This is essentially PDR level” Mission proposal targeted for anticipated NASA Earth System Science Pathfinder (ESSP) Announcement of Opportunity –Expected cost cap: $240M –Other funding scenarios remain under exploration We are working on developing partnerships –Some of these could substantially change the mission architecture

Molniya Orbit Imager, Wind Lidar Working Group, 01/17/2006 Strong, broad-based community support WMO recommendation: –Operational satellite agencies are encouraged to investigate possibilities for ensuring a follow-on to the high-latitude winds from MODIS with improved timeliness Louis Uccellini, Director of NOAA/NCEP –“ … there is no question that the scientific rationale behind the Molniya mission is rock solid” Greg Withee, NESDIS AA –“NESDIS is there … now we need to get the rest of NOAA onboard” US Navy, NPOESS IPO, ECMWF, national weather services in a number of countries (e.g. Canada, UK, Germany, Netherlands, Nordic countries) are behind this Molniya Orbit Imager will be on the agenda at next EUMETSAT Council meeting; initial thrust coming primarily from Finland and from ECMWF –Molniya participation as Optional Program –Polar Satellite Applications Facility (SAF); ground station, data processing and dissemination

Molniya Orbit Imager, Wind Lidar Working Group, 01/17/2006 Prospective partners/ Cost reduction strategies National science partners –NOAA/NESDIS; ground support, data processing, instrument –DoD (USAF, NRL/FNMOC); endorsement International science partners –EUMETSAT; ground support –Finland (TEKES, FMI); ground support, space segment, launch –CSA; under discussion, supported by MSC Partners of opportunity –University of Calgary/FMI; secondary scientific payload: UV Aurora imager

Molniya Orbit Imager, Wind Lidar Working Group, 01/17/2006 Summary Geostationary-class imager in a Molniya orbit can provide time-continuous water vapor and cloud imagery and derived products (e.g. winds) all the way to the pole Scientific heritage: GOES, MODIS Low risk approach: New science enabled by deploying flight-proven technology at a new vantage point Solid baseline mission concept developed Various partnership opportunities still under exploration; this could impact the overall mission architecture

Molniya Orbit Imager, Wind Lidar Working Group, 01/17/2006 Why NASA? ESE focus on societal benefits; improvement in weather forecasting is a high-priority objective Wide range of science data from a new vantage point The Molniya Orbit Imager is a pathfinder for a potential new operational observing system Only NASA can do the engineering and algorithm development required for demonstrating to the operational agencies that this will work