Level of Knowledge *

Most Important News Source, 1959 – 2005

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Sources of Questionnaire Errors **

Effect of “issue publics” on politics Return Return CBS News Poll. July 29-Aug. 2, N=1,222 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3 (for all adults). "What is your personal feeling about abortion? (1) It should be permitted in all cases. (2) It should be permitted, but subject to greater restrictions than it is now. (3) It should be permitted only in cases such as rape, incest and to save the woman's life. OR, (4) It should only be permitted to save the woman's life." All Cases Greater Restrictions Rape, Incest, Woman's Life Only Woman's Life Never (vol.)Unsure %%% 7/29 - 8/2/

Why Sampling Matters: The Ill-Fated Story of The Literary Digest 1920—Literary Digest correctly predicts winner 1924—Literary Digest correctly predicts winner 1928—Literary Digest correctly predicts winner 1932—Literary Digest correctly predicts winner Sent out 10 million postcards (U.S. population = 125 million). Selected names from: 1)Telephone books 2)Club rosters 3)Automobile registration lists 4)Mail order customers Recipients mailed in postcards. Postcards predict—Alf Landon: 57%, Franklin Roosevelt: 43% Election Results—Alf Landon: 38%, Franklin Roosevelt: 62% Literary Digest GOES OUT OF BUSINESS Return

The Amazing Shrinking Soundbite! Return Return Average Uninterrupted Speech Time on Network Evening Newscasts—Presidential Candidates: 1968—43 seconds 1988—9.8 seconds 1992—8.4 seconds 1996—7.2 seconds.

Eschew Obfuscation! (Be Clear!) A 1992 poll conducted by the Roper polling organization found that 22 percent of the public thought the Holocaust of Jews in Europe never happened. The question: “Does it seem possible or does it seem impossible to you that the Nazi extermination of the Jews never happened?” Subsequent poll (with clearer wording) found that between 2 and 9 percent of Americans thought the Holocaust had not happened. Return

Giving the “right” answer On sensitive issues, people may give “acceptable” rather than honest responses. Their answers may depend on things like the gender or race of the interviewer. Question: Abortion is “a private matter that should be left to the woman to decide without government intervention.” Percentage who agreed When interviewed by a man When interviewed by a woman Men70%77% Women64%84% Source: Eagleton Institute Survey

Giving the “right” answer 2 On sensitive issues, people may give “acceptable” rather than honest responses. Their answers may depend on things like the gender or race of the interviewer. Question: The problems faced by blacks “were brought on by blacks themselves.” Percentage who agreed When interviewed by whites When interviewed by blacks Whites62%46% Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll Return

Question order/Answer order matters The way questions are phrased, the possible answers that are offered and the order in which comparisons are made can have profound effects on people’s answers. Question: “Would you say that traffic contributes more or less to air pollution than industry?” –Traffic contributes more: 45% –Industry contributes more:32% Question: “Would you say that industry contributes more or less to air pollution than traffic?” –Traffic contributes more: 24% –Industry contributes more:57% Return

Our UT-Tyler Scientific Poll We want to find out how students feel about turning Tyler into a “wet” city— allowing the off-premise sale of alcohol. 1.Identify population –Who do we ask? –How/Where do we get the information? Return

2. Random selection of the sample How do we randomly sample? Return

3. Construct the questionnaire What should our question say? Return

4. Administer questionnaire How will we conduct our poll? Return

5. Interpret Results Be wary of close results/MoE issues Return

MAJOR Source of Interpretation Error 1. Margin of Error (MoE): a statistical tool used to balance against “error” in sampling –MoE can often wash out “results” –“Statistical dead heat”

Nightly news: “A recent poll taken about the Republican Party nomination for the 2016 presidential election gives Senator Marco Rubio a slim lead over Jeb Bush, Governor Chris Christie, and Rick Santorum.” Return Notice This race is a “statistical dead heat”

2nd MAJOR Source of Interpretation Error 1. Margin of Error (MoE): a statistical tool used to balance against “error” in sampling –MoE can often wash out “results” –“Statistical dead heat”Statistical dead heat 2. 95% Confidence: Statistical theory--one in every 20 surveys reports incorrect results.

Polls and the need to create news Which of these polls is most likely to “make news”? Return

Nightly news: “A recent poll taken about the Republican Party nomination for the 2016 presidential election gives Senator Marco Rubio a slim lead over Jeb Bush, Governor Chris Christie, and Rick Santorum.” Return Notice (This really happens, by the way.)This really happens

A “politico” and a “pundit” Return

The Washington Redskins and Presidential Politics In 15 of the previous 17 presidential elections, if the Washington Redskins have lost their last home game prior to the election, the incumbent party has lost the White House. When they have won, the incumbent has stayed in power. Return

A “bellwether” constituency Election results in Vigo County, IN have been within 0.9% points for all Democratic and Republican presidential candidates since 1960.since 1960 Return