Eugene S. Takle 1 and Zaitao Pan 2 Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture 1 Iowa State University, Ames, IA USA 2 St. Louis University, St. Louis, MO USA Third ICTP Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models, Trieste, Italy, 29 May - 9 June 2006
Outline Overview of climate change impacts on agriculture Modeling crop yield changes with climate model output - an example Crop characteristics within land-surface models
Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture: Crops Crop yields (winners and losers)
Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture: Crops Crop yields (winners and losers) Pest changes –Weed germination changes (soil temperature, soil oxygen) –Pathogens (fungus, insects, diseases) –Changes in migratory pest patterns
Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture: Crops Crop yields (winners and losers) Pest changes –Weed germination changes (soil temperature, soil oxygen) –Pathogens (fungus, insects, diseases) –Changes in migratory pest patterns Water issues –Water availability for non-irrigated agriculture –Irrigation water availability –Water quality (nitrates, phosphates, sediment) –Soil water management
Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture: Crops Crop yields (winners and losers) Pest changes –Weed germination changes (soil temperature, soil oxygen) –Pathogens (fungus, insects, diseases) –Changes in migratory pest patterns Water issues –Water availability for non-irrigated agriculture –Irrigation water availability –Water quality (nitrates, phosphates, sediment) –Soil water management Spread of pollen from genetically modified crops
Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture: Crops Crop yields (winners and losers) Pest changes –Weed germination changes (soil temperature, soil oxygen) –Pathogens (fungus, insects, diseases) –Changes in migratory pest patterns Water issues –Water availability for non-irrigated agriculture –Irrigation water availability –Water quality (nitrates, phosphates, sediment) –Soil water management Spread of pollen from genetically modified crops Food crops vs. alterantive crops –Biofuels (ethanol, cellulosic; impact on water demand) –Bio-based materials –“Farm-a-ceuticals”
Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture: Soil Erosion changes (more extreme rainfall) Salinization Soil carbon changes Nutrient deposition Long-range transport of soil pathogens
Dairy production (milk) Beef production (metabolism) Breeding success Stresses for confinement feeding operations Changes in disease ranges Changes in insect ranges Fish farming (reduced dissolved oxygen) Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture: Animals
Modeling Crop Yield Changes with Climate Model Output: An Example
Climate Models and Crop Model RegCM2 and HIRHAM regional climate models HadCM2 global model for control and future scenario climate CERES Maize (corn) crop model (DSSATv3) –Includes crop physiology –Daily time step –Uses Tmax, Tmin, precipitation, solar radiation from the regional model
CERES Maize Phenological development sensitive to weather Extension growth of leaves, stems, roots Biomass accumulation and partitioning Soil water balance and water use by crop Soil nitrogen transformation, uptake by crop, partitioning
Simulation Domain and Period Domain –Continental US Time Period – Reanalysis driven –Control (current) climate (HadCM2) –Future (~ ) (HadCM2)
Validation: RegCM2 Less that 0.5 o C bias for daily maximum temperatures Less than 0.5 o C bias for daily minimum temperature Precipitation:
Validation: HIRHAM About +1.5 o C bias for daily maximum temperatures About +5 o C bias for daily minimum temperature Precipitation:
Growing Season Precipitation Summary (all values in mm) MeanSt. Dev. Diff Obs St. Dev Observed NCEP-Driven: RegCM HIRHAM Control-Driven: RegCM HIRHAM Scenario-Driven RegCM HIRHAM378 80
Validation: Yields Reported Calculated by crop model by using –Observed weather conditions at Ames station –RegCM2 with NCEP/NCAR reanalysis bc –HIRHAM with NCEP/NCAR reanalysis bc
Simulated with Ames weather observations
Yields Calculated by CERES/RCM/HadCM2 HadCM2 current climate -> RegCM2 -> CERES HadCM2 current climate -> HIRHAM -> CERES HadCM2 future scenario climate -> RegCM2 -> CERES HadCM2 future scenario climate -> HIRHAM -> CERES
Yield Summary (all in kg/ha) MeanSt. Dev. Observed Yields Simulated by CERES with Observed weather RegCM2/NCEP HIRHAM/NCEP RegCM2/HadCM2 current HIRHAM/HadCM2 current RegCM2/HadCM2 future10, HIRHAM/HadCM2 future
Summary Crop model offers more detailed plant physiology and dynamic vegetation for regional models Current versions of crop models show skill with mean yield but variability is a challenge Crop model exposes and amplifies vegetation- sensitive features of regional climate model
Need Ensembles Ensembles of global models
Need Ensembles Ensembles of global models Ensembles of regional models
Need Ensembles Ensembles of global models Ensembles of regional models Ensembles of crops
Need Ensembles Ensembles of global models Ensembles of regional models Ensembles of crops Ensembles of regions
Need Ensembles Ensembles of global models Ensembles of regional models Ensembles of crops Ensembles of regions Ensembles of minds!!
Crop Characteristics within Land-Surface Models: Work in Progress
= Dry-land crop
Gross Ecosystem Production is Related to Evapotranspiration* GEP = A*ET + B *Law et al., 2002: Agric. For. Meteorol. 113, Plant classA ( gCO 2 /kg H 2 O )B ( gCO 2 ) r 2 Evergreen conifers Deciduous broadleaf Grasslands Crop (wheat,corn, soyb) Corn/soybean (est)0.89 Tundra
Gross Ecosystem Production is Related to Evapotranspiration* GEP = A*ET + B *Law et al., Agric. For. Meteorol. 113, Plant classA ( gCO 2 /kg H 2 O )B ( gCO 2 ) r 2 Evergreen conifers Deciduous broadleaf Grasslands Crop (wheat,corn, soyb) Corn/soybean (est)0.89 Tundra
Corn/Soybean Evergreen Conifer Broadleaf Deciduous
Corn/Soybean Evergreen Conifer Broadleaf Deciduous Need to fix this
Leaf photosynthesis (A) is computed as minimum of three independent limiting carbon flux rates in the plants: A=min(w c, w j, w e ) w c - carboxylation/oxygenation (Rubisco) limiting rate w j - PAR (light) limiting rate w e - export limiting rate Photosynthesis in LSM, CLM, NOAH
Rubisco Export PAR Export Rubisco
V max25 is V max at 25C f(N) - sensitivity parameter to vegetation nitrogen content, N, is assumed to be 1 f(T v ) - sensitivity to leaf temperature T v - vegetation temperature (C) f( ) - sensitivity to soil water content - is soil volumetric water content - quantum efficiency w c is proportional to maximum carboxylation capacity (Vmax), where
Calibration of Carbon Uptake Model (Meteorological conditions supplied by observations) Bondville, IL CERES seasonal LAI 50% plants C4 More representative root distribution Observed Flux Modeled Flux
Bondville, IL Calibration of Carbon Uptake Model (Meteorological conditions supplied by MM5) Observed Flux Modeled Flux
µmol CO 2 /s/m 2 Average Simulated CO 2 Flux 1 May – 31 August 1999 Default vegetation
µmol CO 2 /s/m 2 Average Simulated CO 2 Flux 1 May – 31 August 1999 Full accounting for C4 plants (Maize)
µmol CO 2 /s/m 2 Average Simulated CO 2 Flux 1 May – 31 August 2001 Full accounting for C4 plants (Maize) Fan et al., 1998: A large terrestrial carbon sink in North America... Science 282:
Future Work Evaluate role of specialized crops in moisture recycling (fivefold increase in GEP requires doubling of ET). Use MM5 with modified crop characteristics to investigate interactive climate sensitivity to crop development