Comparing HIV and AIDS Prevalence within Countries By: Dan Evans Ida Nordestgaard Lacey McLean By: Dan Evans Ida Nordestgaard Lacey McLean 30 April 2009Economic Statistics 120

Research Question: What is the social impact of HIV/AIDS? What can we do to lower the AIDS prevalence rate in countries? Over 1/5th of deaths in Africa are due to AIDS

Estimated number of people living with HIV, by region ( )

Countries We Included In Our Study: Wealthiest Countries USA China Japan India Germany UK Russia France Brazil Italy Wealthiest Countries USA China Japan India Germany UK Russia France Brazil Italy Liberia Madagascar Malawui Mali Mauritania Mauritius Mozambique Nambia Niger Nigeria Rwanda Senegal Sierra Leone Somalia South Africa Swaziland Tanzania Togo Uganda Zambia Zimbabwe Sub-Saharan African countries are home to 70% of total world HIV positive population Sub-Saharan African Countries Angola Benin Botswana Burkina Faso Burundi Cameroon Central African Republic Chad Comoros Congo Cote D’Ivoire Democratic Republic of the Congo Djibouti Equilateral Guinea Eritrea Ethiopia Gabon Gambia Ghana Guinea Guinea-Bissau Kenya Lesotho

Measuring Social Cost of HIV/AIDS: “It is no exaggeration to say that today AIDS is the greatest threat to Africa’s development.” -K.Y. Amoako, Executive Secretary UN Economic Commission for Africa Factors we considered: GDP per Capita Life Expectancy Literacy Rate GDP Real Growth Rate Unemployment Rate Factors we considered: GDP per Capita Life Expectancy Literacy Rate GDP Real Growth Rate Unemployment Rate

GDP Per Capita GDPP Mean Standard Error Median1600 Mode700 Standard Deviation Sample Variance1.26E+08 Kurtosis Skewness Range46800 Minimum200 Maximum47000 Sum Count54

Life Expectancy Mean Standard Error Median Mode59 Standard Deviation Sample Variance Kurtosis Skewness Range50.24 Minimum31.88 Maximum82.12 Sum Count54

Unemployment Rate Mean Standard Error Median0.29 Mode0.5 Standard Deviation Sample Variance Kurtosis Skewness Range0.822 Minimum0.028 Maximum0.85 Sum Count44

GDP per Capita Coefficientst StatP-value Intercept X Variable Life Expectancy Coefficientst StatP-value Intercept E-36 X Variable Unemployment Coefficientst StatP-value Intercept E-07 X Variable

Funding Toward AIDS Global Spending on AIDS has increased from $3 million in 1996 to $6.1 in It was projected in 2008 the world would need to spend $22 billion to effectively respond to the epidemic. Sources of funding include: –National Governments –Multilateral Funding Organizations –Private Sector Funding –Domestic Resources Projected distribution of resources: –38% HIV care and treatment –35% for prevention –22% for orphan support –5% for policy, advocacy and administration costs Global Spending on AIDS has increased from $3 million in 1996 to $6.1 in It was projected in 2008 the world would need to spend $22 billion to effectively respond to the epidemic. Sources of funding include: –National Governments –Multilateral Funding Organizations –Private Sector Funding –Domestic Resources Projected distribution of resources: –38% HIV care and treatment –35% for prevention –22% for orphan support –5% for policy, advocacy and administration costs

Top U.S. Humanitarian Aid Recipients: Country FY 2000FY 2001FY 2002FY 2003Total (millions) 4-Year Total Uganda$9.30$13.40$20.00$27.90 $70.60 Zambia$9.10$12.90$18.50$25.50 $66.00 Kenya$9.20$10.40$17.20$26.50 $63.30 Nigeria$6.70$12.80$14.50$23.90 $57.90 Ethiopia$7.60$18.82$11.30$19 $56.72 South Africa$6.50$10.90$15.00$22.90 $55.30

Nation Profiles HIV/AIDS prevalence Rate GDP Per Capita Unemployment Rate Life Expectancy Uganda 5.40% $ 1, %52.72 Zambia 15.20% $ 1, %38.63 Ethiopia 2.10% $ %55.41 Kenya 6.70% $ 1, %57.86 Nigeria 3.10% $ 2, %46.94 South Africa 18.10% $ 10, %49.98

Nation Profiles Decreased Rate HIV/AIDS prevalence Rate Uganda4.86%5.40% Zambia13.68%15.20% Ethiopia1.89%2.10% Kenya6.03%6.70% Nigeria2.79% 3.10% South Africa16.29% 18.10%

Nation Profiles HIV/AIDS prevalence Rate GDP Per Capita Unemployment Rate Life Expectancy Uganda4.86% $ 1, % Zambia13.68% $ 1, % Ethiopia1.89% $ % Kenya6.03% $ 1, % Nigeria2.79% $ 2, % South Africa16.29% $ 10, %

The Social Costs of AIDS “ AIDS is negatively affecting every aspect of the social, economic and political development of Africa. It strikes people down in their prime, when they are raising their children, farming their lands, earning their wages, teaching future generations and leading their countries. By the same token, every development challenge that Africa is facing, whether poverty, poor health, gender inequality, or war and instability, is contributing and driving the spread of AIDS. ” - Mr. Kevin Perkins, Executive Director, Canada Africa Partnership on AIDS

For Additional Information: CIA World Fact Book AIDS.ORG UNICEF.ORG JournAIDS.ORG World Health Organization CIA World Fact Book AIDS.ORG UNICEF.ORG JournAIDS.ORG World Health Organization

GDPP Per Capita Our results indicate a negative relationship between HIV/AIDS Prevalence rate and GDPP

GDPP Per Capita Regression Statistics Multiple R R Square Adjusted R Square Standard Error Observations44 ANOVA dfSSMSFSignificance F Regression Residual424.72E Total435.38E+08

Life Expectancy Our results indicate a negative relationship between HIV/AIDS Prevalence rate and Life Expectancy

Life Expectancy Regression Statistics Multiple R R Square Adjusted R Square Standard Error Observations44 ANOVA dfSSMSFSignificance F Regression Residual Total

Literacy Rate Mean Standard Error Median0.61 Mode0.679 Standard Deviation Sample Variance Kurtosis Skewness Range Minimum Maximum0.907 Sum Count44

Literacy Rate Our results indicate a positive relationship between HIV/AIDS prevalence rate and literacy rate

Literacy Rate Regression Statistics Multiple R R Square Adjusted R Square Standard Error Observatio ns44 ANOVA dfSSMSFSignificance F Regression E-05 Residual Total

GDP Real Growth Rate GDP Real Growth Mean0.047 Standard Error Median Mode0.032 Standard Deviation Sample Variance Kurtosis Skewness Range0.258 Minimum Maximum0.132 Sum2.068 Count44

GDP Real Growth Rate Our results indicate a negative relationship between HIV/AIDS Prevalence rate and GDP Real Growth Rate

GDP Real Growth Rate Regression Statistics Multiple R R Square Adjusted R Square Standard Error Observations44 ANOVA dfSSMSFSignificance F Regression Residual Total

Unemployment Rate Our results indicate a positive relationship between HIV/AIDS Prevalence rate and the unemployment rate

Unemployment Rate Regression Statistics Multiple R R Square Adjusted R Square Standard Error Observations44 ANOVA dfSSMSFSignificance F Regression Residual Total

Results We can conclude statistically that the AIDS prevalence rate affects Life Expectancy. We were surprised to find that these factors were affected by the AIDS rate, and will not dismiss the possibility that GDP per Capita, GDP Growth, Literacy Rate and Unemployment may be affected. If relief funding from organizations increases, lowering the AIDS prevalence rate, it can be inferred from our data that Life Expectancy will rise. Possible Limitations: Data collected within the Sub-Saharan African region is questionable because of instability within the country due to the AIDS epidemic We collected the most recent data available, however the AIDS epidemic continues to growth and expand Selection of countries We can conclude statistically that the AIDS prevalence rate affects Life Expectancy. We were surprised to find that these factors were affected by the AIDS rate, and will not dismiss the possibility that GDP per Capita, GDP Growth, Literacy Rate and Unemployment may be affected. If relief funding from organizations increases, lowering the AIDS prevalence rate, it can be inferred from our data that Life Expectancy will rise. Possible Limitations: Data collected within the Sub-Saharan African region is questionable because of instability within the country due to the AIDS epidemic We collected the most recent data available, however the AIDS epidemic continues to growth and expand Selection of countries

Nation Profiles HIV/AIDS prevalence Rate GDP Per Capita Unemployme nt Rate Life Expectancy Uganda 5.40% $ 1, %52.72 Zambia 15.20% $ 1, %38.63 Ethiopia 2.10% $ %55.41 Kenya 6.70% $ 1, %57.86 Nigeria 3.10% $ 2, %46.94 South Africa 18.10% $ 10, %49.98

Nation Profiles Decreased Rate HIV/AIDS pervalance Rate Uganda4.86%5.40% Zambia13.68%15.20% Ethiopia1.89%2.10% Kenya6.03%6.70% Nigeria2.79% 3.10% South Africa16.29% 18.10%

Nation Profiles HIV/AIDS prevalence Rate GDP Per Capita Unemployment Rate Life Expectancy Uganda4.86% $ 1, % Zambia13.68% $ 1, % Ethiopia1.89% $ % Kenya6.03% $ 1, % Nigeria2.79% $ 2, % South Africa16.29% $ 10, %

The Social Costs of AIDS “ AIDS is negatively affecting every aspect of the social, economic and political development of Africa. It strikes people down in their prime, when they are raising their children, farming their lands, earning their wages, teaching future generations and leading their countries. By the same token, every development challenge that Africa is facing, whether poverty, poor health, gender inequality, or war and instability, is contributing and driving the spread of AIDS. ” - Mr. Kevin Perkins, Executive Director, Canada Africa Partnership on AIDS

For Additional Information: CIA World Fact Book AIDS.ORG UNICEF.ORG JournAIDS.ORG World Health Organization CIA World Fact Book AIDS.ORG UNICEF.ORG JournAIDS.ORG World Health Organization