Europe towards 2030 : Territorial Challenges Ahead Andreu Ulied, MCRIT / Roberto Camagni, POLIMI ESPON Scenarios and Vision project REGI Committee of European Parliament 25 June 2013 Brussels

Consortium

To develop a Vision for the Europen territory for 2050 involving the 31 countries in the ESPON Monitoring Committee, and relevant stakeholders at European, national and regional level. Goal

Five Steps Methodology

Forecast Models Demography MULTIPOLES Cohort-component, hierarchical, multiregional, supranational model of population dynamics (up to 2030) ESPON at NUTS2 IOM Economy MASST3 Econometric: social, macroeconomic and Territorial (up to 2030) ESPON at NUTS2 POLIMI Transport MOSAIC Integrated modal split and traffic assignment based on TRANSTOOLS OD trip matrices (up to 2030) EU27 at NUTS2 MCRIT Land-use METRONAMICA Spatial and dynamic land use model that Uses constrained cellular automata to allocate land-uses (up to 2050) EU27 at Cells 1 km2 RIKS Integrated SASI Dynamic System linked to transport networks (up to 2050) ESPON and Western Balkans at NUTS3 S&W

What may be the Crisis Aftermath from now to 2030? More Regional disparities? Reoriented Globalisation? Further Spatial Polarisation? How could be the Vision for Europe in 2050? A “New Generation” of Cohesion policies is needed? Questions proposed for discussion:

The Crisis Aftermath... + Regional Disparities?

GDP Growth (Baseline) by MASST3 GDP a.a. : 1,89 % 45 regions bellow 1,00 %

GDP (International Monetary Fond)

IMF MASST3

GDP (International Monetary Fond) IMF MASST3

Population Change Population : from 514 to 530 inh.

Population ageing Population > 65 years : from 17 % to 24 %

Total Employment Change Employment a.a. : 1,59 %

Relative change in GDP per capita /2030

The Crisis Aftermath... + Reoriented Globalisation?

Trade by companies located in Germany (M€) EUROSTAT

Trade by companies located in Spain (M€)

Foreign Investments of EU companies EUROSTAT Spain UK Germany France UK

The Crisis Aftermath... + Spatial Polarisation? Source : DREWRY, 2008 America Asia 13,3 MTEU 6,7 MTEU 20 MTEU 2,2 MTEU 4,4 MTEU 13,3 MTEU 5,1 MTEU 18,4 MTEU Europe World maritime container traffic. 2008* Top 10 ports 2009

European Gateways: Port and Airports

Road and Rail European Transport Networks RailRoads Analysis of the relative interest of different links (potential traffic increases per cost)

1) Moderate Economic Growth… 2) Increasing Regional Gaps… 3) More Jobs and Lower Salaries... 4) More Labour Mobility in Europe… 5) Population Ageing… 6) Increasingly diversified Globalisation… 7) More Polarisation in European Global Gateways… Key Baseline Conclusions...

1.What may be the Crisis Aftermath from now to 2030? 2.What could be the Vision for European in 2050? 3.A “New Generation” of Cohesion Policies is needed? Second Question...

Exploratory Scenarios for Spatial orientation of the scenarios Framework conditions Baseline 1 Economic decline 2 Technical advance 3 Energy/ Climate costs Promotion of global regions AA1A1A2A2A3A3 Promotion of large urban regions BB1B1B2B2B3B3 Promotion of rural and peripheral regions CC1C1C2C2C3C3

GDP (1981=100)... Territorial A, B and C Strategies have marginal impacts on growth

Cohesion: CoV of GDP/capita Crisis...Territorial A, B and C Strategies have significant impacts on cohesion

National polycentricity EU Polycentrism

Polycentric territorial development Integrated development in cities, rural and specific regions Integration in cross-border, transnational & neighbouring regions Regions as places with global competitiveness Accessibility and connectivity to open up regional potentials Landscape and cultural values as assets Ecological Sustainability and Climate Change Adaptation Which Strategies are to be considered for the 2050 Territorial Vision ?

According to Danuta Huebner, referring to her native Poland, an EU member since 2004: "It is a different country now. That's also because European contributions" How Cohesion policies could be reformed?

+ Local, Regional and National institutional empowerment + Place-based focus towards endogenous development + Sensitivity to economic cycles + Local and Regional Infrastructure Endowment + Land-Use instruments in vulnerable areas + Investments in Neighboring Countries How Cohesion policies should be reformed in the long-run ?

“Too seek Europe, is to make it! Europe exists through its search for the infinit -and this is what I call adventure” Zygmunt Bauman, “An Adventure called Europe”

Further information: (working documents)