The TIGGE experience Richard Swinbank and Masayuki Kyouda with thanks to members of GIFS-TIGGE WG & THORPEX IPO S2S project planning group meeting, Exeter, February 2013

The TIGGE experience  Aims  Database content  Technical – how we run TIGGE  TIGGE-based products  Looking ahead, post THORPEX

TIGGE THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble  A major component of THORPEX: a WMO World Weather Research Programme to accelerate the improvements in the accuracy of 1-day to 2-week high-impact weather forecasts  GEO task WE-01-C1 – “Global Multi-Model Prediction System for High-Impact Weather” Objectives:  Enhance collaboration on ensemble prediction, both internationally and between operational centres & universities.  Facilitate research on ensemble prediction methods, especially methods to combine ensembles and to correct systematic errors  Enable evolution towards a prototype operational system, the “Global Interactive Forecast System”

TIGGE data  Ten of the leading global forecast centres are providing regular ensemble predictions to support research on predictability, dynamical processes and the development of probabilistic forecasting methods.  TIGGE data is made available for research after a 48- hour delay.  The TIGGE dataset has proved invaluable as a resource for a wide range of research projects. Over 70 articles related to TIGGE have been published in the scientific literature

Summary of TIGGE database Centre Ensemble members Output data resolution Forecast length Forecasts per day Fields (out of 73) Start date BoM*331.50º x 1.50º10 day2553 Sep 07 CMA150.56º x 0.56º10 day26015 May 07 MSC210.9º x 0.9º16 day2563 Oct 07 CPTEC150.94º x 0.94º15 day2551 Feb 08 ECMWF51 N200 (Reduced Gaussian) N128 after day day2701 Oct 06 JMA511.25º x 1.25º9 day1611 Oct 06 KMA240.56º x 0.38º10 day24628 Dec 07 Météo-France351.50º x 1.50º4.5 day26225 Oct 07 NCEP211.00º x 1.00º16 day4695 Mar 07 UKMO240.83º x 0.55º15 day2721 Oct 06 * Delivery of BoM data currently suspended

TIGGE data flows  The ensemble prediction data is transferred from the data providers to one of the data centres (using LDM, FTP or HTTP).  After checking, the data is then sent on to the other data centres.  The data is archived and made available to users 48 hours after initial forecast time.

TIGGE features  All data are archived at native resolution (on native grid when possible)  Data may be interpolated on any limited-area lat-lon grid defined by the user just before download  Field names, definitions, units, accumulation times, (etc.) are fully standardized  Data gaps are continuously monitored and every effort is made to repair them quickly  All data provided in GRIB2 (WMO standard data format) Slide 7 AMS - IIPS NCAR EPS 1EPS 2EPS n academicNHMS other users Predictability science Applications ECMWFCMA

Information about TIGGE  Major Article in BAMS  New leaflet to publicise TIGGE to researchers  Contribution in GEO book “Crafting Geoinformation”  Tropical cyclone case study in WMO Bulletin  TIGGE website

TIGGE Archive  The TIGGE database now contains over five years of global forecast data.  Data volume now exceeds 520 terabytes (2.6 billion fields).  Around 100 users access TIGGE data every month.

TIGGE – Research focus The TIGGE project (& GIFS-TIGGE working group) was originally focused on the technical work enabling the establishment of the TIGGE archive dataset. The main scientific aspects of THORPEX were covered by Predictability & Dynamical Processes WG, and also Data Assimilation & Observing Systems WG(s). Following the successful establishment of the TIGGE dataset, the focus of the GIFS-TIGGE working group has shifted towards research on ensemble forecasting. Particular topics of interest include:  a posteriori calibration of ensemble forecasts;  combination of ensembles produced by multiple models;  research on and development of probabilistic forecast products. More recently, we have broadened our range of interest to cover improvement of EPSs, including:  representing uncertainties in initial conditions  stochastic physics & other techniques to account for model error

TIGGE development Calibration, combination, products EPS improvement Time Evolution of TIGGE & GIFS  The GIFS-TIGGE should also be a forum to focus on R&D directed at improving our EPS systems, to help us develop a “virtuous circle”.  In addition to post-processing and applications of EPS and EPS developments, we will also maintain an interest in ensemble verification and links with convective-scale EPS and the new sub- seasonal to seasonal group.  … to be considered further in post-THORPEX plans.

Towards the Global Interactive Forecast System (GIFS)  The THORPEX implementation plan had a grand vision for the development of a Global Interactive Forecast System. Although our plans are now more modest, one key element of GIFS that we are developing is the use of probabilistic forecast products.  Many weather forecast situations are low probability but high risk – unlikely but potentially catastrophic. Probabilistic forecasting is a powerful tool to improve early warning of high-impact events.  Using the TIGGE dataset, we are developing and evaluating probabilistic products to deliver improved forecasts of high-impact weather.  The products are focused on  Tropical cyclones  Heavy precipitation  Strong winds

Links with Severe Weather FDP  We are collaborating with WMO Severe Weather Forecast Demonstration Project (SWFDP) and other projects  to ensure that products address needs of operational forecasters and end users;  to provide an environment for the evaluation of prototype products.  GIFS will use global-regional- national cascade pioneered by the SWFDP.  Web-enabled technology will be used for generation and distribution of products.

Tropical cyclones  The GIFS-TIGGE working group first set up a pilot project for the exchange of real-time tropical cyclone track predictions using “Cyclone XML” format, initially to support the THORPEX Pacific- Asia Regional Campaign (T-PARC)  Several types of products to support TC forecasting have been developed using those data. Example of combined TC track forecasts (Met Office + ECMWF)

Warnings of other severe weather events  More recently, prototype products have been developed based on gridded forecast data, such as this product which highlights the risk of heavy rainfall. Prototype product courtesy Mio Matsueda Similar products also available for hot & cold temperatures, strong winds

Steps to progress use of GIFS products in SWFDP  Progress so far  TC products based on CXML data; prototype products based on gridded TIGGE forecast data  Provided documentation of prototype products  GIFS-TIGGE WG co-chair attended recent SWFDP SG meeting  Seek feedback from RSMCs coordinating SWFDP regional subprojects  Current  Develop real-time products for SWFDP based on preferred prototypes, e.g., Multi-model versions of TC products; near real-time versions of highest priority rainfall products.  Supply products to SWFDP regional websites  Future  Provide training on GIFS products via SWFDP

TIGGE-LAM: TIGGE for limited-area models To complement the global TIGGE project, a TIGGE-LAM panel was set up to coordinate the development of Limited Area Model Ensemble Prediction Systems. The panel facilitates the interoperability of the different regional ensemble systems and coordinates the archiving of limited-area ensemble forecasts. The TIGGE-LAM panel is chaired by Tiziana Paccagnella and works closely with the GIFS-TIGGE working group.  The three TIGGE archive centres have agreed to host a sub-set of high priority data, and archiving of LAM EPS data has now started.  With the increasing emphasis on convective-scale ensembles, TIGGE-LAM works closely with the WWRP Mesoscale Weather Forecasting Research group, as well as GIFS-TIGGE.  The TIGGE LAM Panel now structured in regional sub-groups to facilitate the focus on regional activities, with links to THORPEX regional committees.  More information is available from the TIGGE-LAM website

GIFS-TIGGE 31 August - 2 September 2011  GEOWOW (GEOSS interoperability for Weather, Ocean and Water) is a 3-year EU-funded FP7 project started September  The Weather component (WP4) includes TIGGE archive enhancements:  TIGGE-LAM archive  Time-series data – for specified set of locations  Provision of data in netcdf format as alternative to GRIB2

Other developments  Clear need for coordination with S2S archive, as well as TIGGE-LAM – a trio of complementary datasets  Supplementary data  Observations – NCAR model validation portal  Possible future enhancements (to be discussed)  Additional fields (e.g. ice-related parameters for polar project)  Reforecast data  Resolution  Currently TIGGE archives data at native model resolution, but need to consider standard or maximum resolution in future.

Post-THORPEX landscape Still fluid, but a plausible scenario is:  WWRP “Predictability and Ensemble Forecasting” working group, focusing on science of dynamics & predictability and ensemble forecasting.  Small technical “liaison group” to manage TIGGE database (could include S2S & TIGGE-LAM too?)  New “high-impact weather” project to continue some of THORPEX R&D, with more of a focus on short-range convective-scale resolution. To be discussed at Karlsruhe workshop in March.

WWRP-THORPEX TIGGE dataset Users Predictability, dynamics, probabilistic forecasting PDP working group GIFS-TIGGE working group TIGGE-LAM panel TIGGE-LAM dataset

WWRP TIGGE dataset Users Sub-seasonal to seasonal and polar predictability, high-impact weather, probabilistic forecasting, RDPs, FDPs P&EF expert team Dataset liaison group TIGGE-LAM dataset HIW project team S2S project team S2S dataset WCRP

Any Questions?