Scientific and Societal Challenges of the Next 20 Years A presentation to: The National Science Foundation Facilities Workshop Alexander E. MacDonald Earth System Research Laboratory – Director DAA – OAR LCI September 24, 2007 Boulder, Colorado

Talk Summary Scientific and Societal Challenges of the Next 20 Years 1. Climate Change is Driving Societal Change 2. Science for ADAPTATION Example 1: Hurricanes Example 2: Arctic ice melt Example 3: Greenland melt Example 4: Colorado river flow 3. Science for MITIGATION Example 1: Ocean acidity Example 2: Runaway release of Arctic carbon

The quality of a prediction depends first on scientific study to understand the physical processes. Then – and only then – it can be correctly incorporated into analysis and prediction models.

Approach 1. Take the right observations. 2. Understand the processes (physical or chemical). 3. Incorporate into prediction models. 4. Change policy based on better knowledge.

Talk Summary Scientific and Societal Challenges of the Next 20 Years 1. Climate Change is Driving Societal Change 2. Science for ADAPTATION Example 1: Hurricanes Example 2: Arctic ice melt Example 3: Greenland melt Example 4: Colorado river flow 3. Science for MITIGATION Example 1: Ocean acidity Example 2: Runaway release of Arctic carbon

Talk Summary Scientific and Societal Challenges of the Next 20 Years 1. Climate Change is Driving Societal Change 2. Science for ADAPTATION Example 1: Hurricanes Example 2: Arctic ice melt Example 3: Greenland melt Example 4: Colorado river flow 3. Science for MITIGATION Example 1: Ocean acidity Example 2: Runaway release of Arctic carbon

7 HWIND Aerosonde Plots/ Ophelia 16 Aug, Satellite image at time of second closest approach of Aerosonde to wind center and just after WP-3D SFMR penetration across the eye.

New NSF assets such as HIAPER can improve our understanding of storm environments.

Talk Summary Scientific and Societal Challenges of the Next 20 Years 1. Climate Change is Driving Societal Change 2. Science for ADAPTATION Example 1: Hurricanes Example 2: Arctic ice melt Example 3: Greenland melt Example 4: Colorado river flow 3. Science for MITIGATION Example 1: Ocean acidity Example 2: Runaway release of Arctic carbon

Determine the Fate of the Arctic Ocean Ice ARCTIC ICE COLLAPSE? In 2007, the Arctic ocean ice decreased to its lowest ever coverage – a full 15% less.

Permafrost (CCSM) Sept. sea-ice (CCSM) Sept. sea-ice (Observed) The Community Climate Model shows the summer ice to be bistable, with a rapid transition from ice to ice-free in the 21 st century. (M. Holland et al, 2006)

SHEBA 1998: Scientists spend a year on the Arctic Ocean ice...

Arctic clouds may provide a warm blanket... Detailed resolved cloud microphysics/optical properties Aerosol Cloud Interactions Satellite Validation Nine-year comparison of monthly cloud fractions form surface, TOVS and AVHRR on NOAA satellites And MODIS on NASA satellites over Barrow, Alaska Cloud Forcing of Surface Radiation Budgets

In the NOAA Unmanned Aircraft Systems program, we propose to fly over the Arctic ice at low and high levels to measure the Arctic energy balance.

Talk Summary Scientific and Societal Challenges of the Next 20 Years 1. Climate Change is Driving Societal Change 2. Science for ADAPTATION Example 1: Hurricanes Example 2: Arctic ice melt Example 3: Greenland melt Example 4: Colorado river flow 3. Science for MITIGATION Example 1: Ocean acidity Example 2: Runaway release of Arctic carbon

A rapid melt of Arctic ocean ice could increase the rate of Greenland ice melt. This chart from Overpeck shows a 2 meter sea level rise in red.

NOAA would like to work with NSF to make Summit Greenland a full year-round observatory for carbon and other science.

Talk Summary Scientific and Societal Challenges of the Next 20 Years 1. Climate Change is Driving Societal Change 2. Science for ADAPTATION Example 1: Hurricanes Example 2: Arctic ice melt Example 3: Greenland melt Example 4: Colorado river flow 3. Science for MITIGATION Example 1: Ocean acidity Example 2: Runaway release of Arctic carbon

Colorado River Basin Overview 7 States, 2 Nations Fastest Growing Part of the U.S. Over 1,450 miles in length Basin makes up about 8% of total U.S. lands Highly variable Natural Flow which averages 15 MAF Irrigates 3.5 million acres Very Complicated Legal Environment Source:Reclamation

Population Growth in the Colorado River Basin: 1900 – 2000 Currently: 50+ Million

Trends in Temperature Mote, et. al, 2005 Regonda, et. al, 2005 Stuff and m Units in Days

Hoerling and Eischeid Eye-Opening Results Article at: wwa.colorado.edu/resources/climate_change.html Christensen et al and Wolter/Doesken Colorado Temps as well 1° C since 1970 Another 2° C Projected to 2050 Average Flow = ~5maf by 2050

Talk Summary Scientific and Societal Challenges of the Next 20 Years 1. Climate Change is Driving Societal Change 2. Science for ADAPTATION Example 1: Hurricanes Example 2: Arctic ice melt Example 3: Greenland melt Example 4: Colorado river flow 3. Science for MITIGATION Example 1: Ocean acidity Example 2: Runaway release of Arctic carbon

Talk Summary Scientific and Societal Challenges of the Next 20 Years 1. Climate Change is Driving Societal Change 2. Science for ADAPTATION Example 1: Hurricanes Example 2: Arctic ice melt Example 3: Greenland melt Example 4: Colorado river flow 3. Science for MITIGATION Example 1: Ocean acidity Example 2: Runaway release of Arctic carbon

Past and present variability of marine pH. Future predictions for years shown on the right-hand side of the figure are model-derived values based on IPCC mean scenarios. From Pearson and Palmer adapted by Turley et al. and from the Eur-Oceans Fact Sheet No. 7, "Ocean Acidification - the other half of the CO2 problem", May 2007.Ocean Acidification - the other half of the CO2 problem

A new generation of moored buoys is proposed: Platform and Instrumentation for Continuous Ocean Observation “PICO” Inexpensive Moored (Eulerian) Low Maintenance (3 year service) Easy deployment Durable Industrial design plan Multipurpose ( Crawlers with a variety of sensors that go up and down the taut line that extends to the bottom of the ocean) Concept from PMEL System Description:

NSF’s Ocean Observatories are a crucial part of IOOS and the observational basis for understanding and predicting a changing ocean.

Talk Summary Scientific and Societal Challenges of the Next 20 Years 1. Climate Change is Driving Societal Change 2. Science for ADAPTATION Example 1: Hurricanes Example 2: Arctic ice melt Example 3: Greenland melt Example 4: Colorado river flow 3. Science for MITIGATION Example 1: Ocean acidity Example 2: Runaway release of Arctic carbon

Will rising temperatures release large stores of high-latitude carbon? CARBON: Humankind’s great 21 st century challenge.

CARBON TRACKER Developed by ESRL/GMD

"The struggle of today, is not altogether for today -- it is for a vast future also. " --From the December 3, 1861 Message to Congress

Earth Systems Research Laboratory Mission: “To observe and understand the earth system and to... advance NOAA’s environmental information and service on global-to-local scale.”