Chapter 2 “Population”

“A study of Population is the basis for understanding a wide variety of issues in human geography. To study the challenge of increasing the food supply, reducing pollution, and encouraging economic growth, geographers must ask where and why a region’s population is distributed as it is.”

Population of the World

World Population Cartogram This cartogram displays countries by the size of their population rather than their land area. (Only countries with 50 million or more people are named.)

Population Concentrations: East Asia – 1/5 of the world’s population China, Japan, Korea, Taiwan China – Pacific Coast – Rural Japan/South Korea – Urban South Asia - 1/5 of the world’s population India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka Mainly on Coastlines and Ganges and Indus River Southeast Asia - Philippines, Indonesia Islands – Rural The 3 Asia’s above have over 50% of the world’s population on 10% of the land.

Europe - 1/9 of world’s population Urban 48 countries and European Russia Industry, roads, well developed Sparse Population: Too Dry, Too Cold, Too Wet, Too High What does Ecumene mean?

Expansion of the Ecumene 5000 B.C.–A.D. 1900 The ecumene, or the portion of the Earth with permanent human settlement, has expanded to cover most of the world’s land area.

Arithmetic Population Density Arithmetic population density is the number of people per total land area. The highest densities are found in parts of Asia and Europe.

Physiological Density Physiological density is the number of people per arable land area. This is a good measure of the relation between population and agricultural resources in a society.

Agricultural Density Agricultural Density is the ratio of the number of farmers to the amount of arable land. This density measure helps account for economic differences.

MDCs (More Developed Countries) – The typical family contains fewer people than in the past and the number of children is declining – Why? LDCs (Less Developed Countries) – The number of children per household tends to be much higher than in MDCs. The ability for LDCs to provide food, clothing, and shelter for their people is severely hampered by the continued rapid growth of their populations and the economic situation in their country and the world. Why is their population growing even though they cannot afford it?

Three important facts about Population: More people are alive at this time – 6 500 000 000 that at any other time in earth’s history. The world’s population increased at a faster rate during the second half of the twentieth century than ever before. Virtually all global population growth is concentrated in LDCs.

Demography – The scientific study of population Demography – The scientific study of population. Demographers look statistically at how people are distributed spatially and by age, gender, occupation, fertility, health, and so on.

Two of the most basic factors that affect Population are Birth rates (sometimes called Crude Birth Rates) and Death rates – called Vital Statistics. BR-DR=NI (Natural Increase) BR-DR=Z.P.G. (zero population growth) Which countries are at or near Z.P.G.? Let’s go through reasons why: Birth Rates are High Birth Rates are Low Death Rates are High Death Rates are Low

Natural Increase Rates The natural increase rate (NIR) is the percentage growth or decline in the population of a country per year (not including net migration). Countries in Africa and Southwest Asia have the highest current rates, while Russia and some European countries have negative rates.

Crude Birth Rates The crude birth rate (CBR) is the total number of births in a country per 1,000 population per year. The lowest rates are in Europe, and the highest rates are in Africa and several Asian countries.

Crude Death Rates The crude death rate (CDR) is the total number of deaths in a country per 1,000 population per year. Because wealthy countries are in a late stage of the demographic transition, they often have a higher CDR than poorer countries.

People that are in favour of population growth and do not believe that a large Population is a good thing are called: Pro-Natalist. People that are against large populations are called Anti-Natalist. How does the role of women play a role in Population Growth?

Anti-Natalist give the following reasons: Environment can’t support any more people Pollution is on the increase We are running out of resources/food Our standard of living will decrease Massive unemployment, disease, starvation, overcrowding will occur

Pro-Natalist give these reasons: Wealth and population are directly proportional Re-distribute the wealth Re-locate population Controlling population removes personal freedom (moral issue) and is against most religions, it is against nature We will find ways of taking care of the extra people – Science will find a way – Cornucopians Population will take care of itself – be optimistic

A model has been created to describe what happens as a country goes through various stages of birth rates and death rates. The model is called the Demographic Transition Model. There is a separate slide show on this later on. A type of graph called a Population Pyramid was created to visually show the relationship of the age structure of a country and its male/female distribution. There is a separate slide show on this topic as well.

World natural increase for 1960 – 2.0% In 1992 it was 1.7% This still added 95 million people per year (based on a base of 6 billion) That’s 256 000 people a day 10 666 per hour 180 per minute 3 per second

Declining natural increase rate does not mean a declining population 1.7% of 6 billion (1990) is more than 2.0% of 3 billion (1960) Natural increase is decreasing but the overall population is still increasing. This is called Population Momentum For example – Which is greater?: a. You receive $1000 a day for 30 days OR b. You receive 1cent on the first day, 2 cents on the second, 4 on the 3rd and 8 on the 4th.

The ‘a’ example will get you $30 000 The ‘a’ example will get you $30 000. The ‘b’ example will get you $10 737 418.23! Example ‘b’ grows in a compound fashion. Its growth depends on the previous days growth – that is how population grows.

Birth rates and Death rates are affected by the age-composition of the population and this could lead to some confusion. For example: A population representing a developed country like Canada, may have a large proportion of old people and Canada’s death rate may actually be similar to that of a developing country that is made up of a younger population like India. Birth rates and Death rates are still the most important and easily understood of all the vital statistics, but it is worth looking at other types of vital statistics.

So population can be measured in other ways: Two are: the total fertility rate (TFR) and the life expectancy at birth. The total fertility rate is the number of children a woman would have during her reproductive life.

In other words “the average amount of babies a woman will have based on that countries statistics. High-fertility countries may have birth rates of 40 or even 50 per 1000 population (per year); corresponding levels of the TFR would be 5 to 7 children per woman. Low-fertility countries have birth rates of 15 to 20 per 1000 and TFRs of about 2.

Total Fertility Rates The Total fertility rate (TFR) is the number of children an average woman in a society will have through her childbearing years. The lowest rates are in Europe, and the highest are in Africa and parts of the Middle East.

TFR – Total Fertility Rate

“Replacement level” fertility (the level at which each person on average has a single successor in the next generation) corresponds to a TFR of about 2.1 under low death rate conditions. It would normally be 2.0 but the .1 is added to take into account the children that do not make it to adulthood.

Life expectancy at birth is the average length of life if currently prevailing mortality rates continued indefinitely. Pre-industrial populations had large fluctuations in mortality – death rates. Pre-industrial populations had death rates of 30 to 40 per 1000; life expectancies of 25 to 35 years. With modern health care, death rates are below 10 per 1000 and life expectancies are above 70 years.

Life Expectancy Life Expectancy at birth measures the average number of years a newborn infant can expect to live at current mortality rates

Infant mortality rate is the probability of death in the first year of life, usually stated as a number per 1000 births. Many less-developed countries have infant mortality rates above 100 per 1000 - that is, more than 10 percent of the children die in their first year. In countries with effective health and educational systems, infant mortality rates are about 15 per 1000, or even lower.

Infant Mortality Rates The infant mortality rate is the number of infant deaths per 1,000 live births per year. The highest infant mortality rates are found in some of the poorest countries of Africa and Asia.

Population Projections – The Future 1990 5.3B to 6.2B by 2000 and 8.5B by 2025. 2025 “high” estimate 9.1B; “low” estimate 7.9B. Birth rates are expected to decline from 26/1000 in 1990 to 22/1000 in 2000 and 17/1000 by 2025.

Because of the increasing number of elderly, death rates are not expected to fall much. 9/1000 in 1990 to 8/1000 in 2025. Life expectancy is expected to increase from 65 years (1990) to 79 years (2025). Important to note that these are world averages; the pattern is not uniform geographically.

Doubling Time = 70 / Pop. Growth Rate Rate of Increase (%) Doubling Time (yrs.) Example (1998) 0.50 140 Ireland 0.60 120 United States 1.00 70 China 2.00 35 Costa Rica 3.50 20 Yemen 2000 yrs. ago – 250 million: doubling time 16 centuries (1650) 1650 – 500 million: doubling time 170 yrs. (1820) … 2000 – doubling time reduced to 35 yrs. (>6 billion currently)

When studying Demographic Trends the following are issues that are facing us in the future. They all happen to be environmental: - Water - Deforestation - Desertification - Soil Degradation - Strain on Agriculture - Climate Change

The Demographic Trends

Aging

Youth Bulge

Percentage of the Population under age 15

Migration

Urbanization

Health

Vocabulary List

Unit II. Population—Basic Vocabulary and Concepts Age distribution Carrying capacity Cohort Demographic equation Demographic momentum Demographic regions Demographic Transition model Dependency ratio Diffusion of fertility control Disease diffusion Doubling time Ecumene Epidemiological Transition model Gendered space Infant mortality rate J-curve Maladaptation

Malthus, Thomas Mortality Natality Neo-Malthusian Overpopulation Population densities Population distributions Population explosion Population projection Population pyramid Rate of natural increase S-curve Sex ratio Standard of living Sustainability Underpopulation Zero population growth

The End!