LAPS / STMAS Verification Activities Steve Albers, Isidora Jankov ESRL / GSD Verification Summit September 2011 Updated Sep 7, 2011.

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Presentation transcript:

LAPS / STMAS Verification Activities Steve Albers, Isidora Jankov ESRL / GSD Verification Summit September 2011 Updated Sep 7, 2011

LAPS Motivation High Resolution (500m – 20km), rapid update (10-60min) Highly portable system – about 150 users world wide Federal Gov’t – NWS, RSA, PADS, FAA, DHS State Gov’t – California Dept of Water Resoures International – Finnish Met. Inst., China Heavy Rain Inst. Global analysis – used by SOS Wide variety of data sources: OAR/ESRL/GSD/Forecast Applications Branch2

Data Ingest Intermediate data files ClassicGSI Data STMAS-3D Trans Model prep WRF-ARWMM5WRF-NMM Ensemble Forecast Probabilistic Post Processing Error Covariance LAPS / STMAS DA-Ensemble System 3 OAR/ESRL/GSD/Forecast Applications Branch Analysis Scheme Verification Built-in Verification Ports with system

Global Solar Radiation Analysis + Observations OK Mesonet ARL / FRD

Global Solar Radiation Analysis + Observations 3-Frames at 15-minute interval

Solar Radiation Analysis Verification Oklahoma Region (past 48 hours) 15 minute verification ~100 Oklahoma mesonet stations. 3 km grid spacing1 km grid spacing

Solar Radiation Web Page Verified at station locations measuring global solar radiation on time scales <= 15min Mean Analyzed / Forecast Mean Observed RMS differences

Solar Radiation Analysis Verification HWT Domain Analysis (72 hour time series) ~100 Oklahoma mesonet stations. Clearer Days

Solar Radiation Analysis Verification HWT Domain Analysis (72 hour time series) ~100 Oklahoma mesonet stations. Partly Cloudy Days

Downward Solar Radiation Forecast vs. Observations

Cloud Cover Analysis Matching 1-3 hour Solar Radiation Forecast

Solar Radiation Ensemble Forecast Verification HMT Forecast (00-09 hours) ~6 Idaho ARL solar radiation stations.

Solar Radiation Forecast Verification HWT Forecast (00-06 hours) LAPS / STMAS / HRRR + Oklahoma solar radiation stations. LAPS STMAS HRRR LAPS STMAS HRRR

Radar Reflectivity Verification Web Page Verified over various domains of integration for deterministic as well as ensemble forecasts. 3D radar volume data at several reflectivity thresholds. BIAS ETS

CloudSat Verification of LAPS Cloud Analysis LAPS CloudSat

16 June hr Forecast, Lin μPhysAnalysis Well-Developed Squall Line at Initial time

Bias & ETS June Low Sensitivity in Bias to Variations in Microphysics (developed squall line case) ETS values are highest at early times due to hot-start

Ensemble ETS (North-East Corridor) STMAS BIAS (North-East Corridor) CONUS LAPS/WRF and HRRR

Forecast at Z ETSBias NE Corridor Domain

That’s the latest – Questions?

2hr HOT FcstAnalysis2hr NO-HOT Fcst 850 mb Analyzed and Simulated Reflectivity 16 June 2002

Why most of the metadata are N/A?