National Weather Service Burlington, VT NWS Burlington Winter Weather Workshop Scott Whittier - WCM

Outline Verification – More active than – Still below normal – 5 Year Running averages Review WSW/NPW policy – Philosophy – Software restrictions IDSS

National Weather Service Burlington, VT ER Verification Winter Storm Total Events 1334 events 616 events Busier, but still below average ~100

National Weather Service Burlington, VT National Weather Service Burlington, VT NWS BTV Winter Verification History

National Weather Service Burlington, VT ER Verification Probability of Detection (POD)

National Weather Service Burlington, VT ER Verification False Alarm Ratio (FAR)

National Weather Service Burlington, VT ER Verification Winter Storm Average Lead Time

ER Verification Overall GPRA/GPRA+ Rankings

National Weather Service Burlington, VT ER Winter Verification (5 seasons) October 2008 – September 2013

National Weather Service Burlington, VT ER Winter Verification (5 seasons) October 2008 – September 2013

National Weather Service Burlington, VT ER High Wind Verification October 2012 – September 2013 (SANDY and Nor’Easters)

National Weather Service Burlington, VT ER High Wind Verification October 2012 – September 2013 (SANDY and Nor’Easters)

National Weather Service Burlington, VT ER High Wind Verification Sandy vs. Post Sandy

National Weather Service Burlington, VT ER High Wind Verification (5 seasons) October 2008 – September 2013 Top Locations are Coastal or Great Lakes

National Weather Service Burlington, VT ER High Wind Verification (5 seasons) October 2008 – September 2013

National Weather Service Burlington, VT National Weather Service Burlington, VT Watch/Warning Philosophy Collaborate with Adjacent WFO’s for “consistent, uniform message” – Type of Hazard, Start and Stop Times, Accumulations Most Cases…ALY/BUF (Same or Earlier Start/Stop), GYX (Same or Later) Make “Liberal” Start / End Times (esp Watches) – Beginning: Start of Snow/Winter Pcpn – End: Several hours AFTER expected end of Accumulating Snow “When In Doubt…Stretch it Out” Watches should be more Liberal than Warnings – Due to Greater uncertainty (Track and Time) Warnings should be shorter – More likely at the beginning due to closer proximity to start time

National Weather Service Burlington, VT National Weather Service Burlington, VT CAREFUL when Alternating Start/Stop times – “Technically” creates a new “Verification” warning and Lead Time clock – Previous warning becomes invalid and is a non-verified warning (FAR) – ONLY if you feel Forecast would be a complete BUST and/or unrepresentative!!! CAREFUL when re-grouping Hazard Grids… especially BEFORE event begins – Make sure Valid times are the same as previous WSW/NPW – Avoid the Inadvertent NEW “Verification Warning” NEVER adjust VTEC in AWIPS – Close product and Restart in GFE Adjusting Start/Stop Times and Regrouping Hazard Grids

National Weather Service Burlington, VT National Weather Service Burlington, VT Frequency of WSW/NPW Issuances Pre-event issuances – Once per full package suite or Once per shift Set Product expiration time no less than ~ hours – More frequent as conditions warrant Better timing of the arrival of wintry precipitation During an Event – Once per shift and/or more frequently (< 6 hours) Set Product expiration time ~ 6-8 hours – More frequent as conditions warrant Changes to forecast, Timing, Impacts, Validity of forecast – “Rain has already changed to snow, thus heavier snowfall totals expected” – “A heavy snow band with snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour will impact the Champlain Valley through 6 pm” – “Snowfall amounts of 12 inches or more have already been observed in southern Vermont”

National Weather Service Burlington, VT National Weather Service Burlington, VT Bulleted WSW/NPW Content – Keep wording clear and concise Ask yourself... “if it really needs to be in there?” – Keep Bullets to a few lines of text at most – Bullets should be coherent and end with period ACCUMULATIONS… 6 to 12 inches of snow. – Timing Bullet: DO NOT REGURGITATE HEADLINE!!! “Value Added” Information SNOW DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON…BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES TONIGHT, THEN GRADUALLY ENDING WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING...PEAKING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY...BEFORE ABATING THIS EVENING. – Add Bullets as necessary Multiple Hazards/Impacts Separate Snow/Ice Accumulations, if two different systems Observed Snowfall for Validity?

IDSS Collaboration between forecasters and IDSS person (Andy, Scott, Designated personnel) – Shift briefing and possibly after 12z guidance Attempt to have Headline decisions by 2 pm – Any last minute changes, please pass on to IDSS person and vice versa (IDSS needs to check with forecaster) s by Management or Lead Designee – Weekend/Holiday…need help call Andy or Scott – Midshifts…please consider, especially if there are changes Embrace Social Media

National Weather Service Burlington, VT Any Questions???