Juvenile Corrections Population Forecasting Advisory Committee September 1, 2010 DAS Exec. Building 155 Cottage, BAM Conference Torri Lynn (Chair)Linn County Juvenile Department Mark Eddy, Ph.D.Oregon Social Learning Center Donna KeddyOregon Department of Human Services David KochMultnomah County Juvenile Department Jeffrey LichtenbergJefferson County Juvenile Department Colette PetersOregon Youth Authority

Welcome, Introductions (Torri, Damon) Review July 29 small group meeting (Torri) Progress on demand using community youth (Damon) Population trends, Forecast tracking (Damon) Roundtable – Juvenile Justice Issues Next Steps: October forecast, model work Next meeting: Wednesday, September 22, 2010, 1:30 – 3:30 p.m. (same place)

Small Group Meeting Review Met July 29, 2010 Review of OYA data for 2005 – 2010 Parole and Probation Youth (felony adjudications) Mirror population of high risk youth in communities closely resembling the risk population in YCF. Group consensus that youth being supervised in the community by counties and OYA is a primary feeder into the YCF and should be part of the formula. Goal for the full committee meeting was to run the previously unrepresented probation populations of youth supervised by both counties and OYA as part of the formula to determine the juvenile closed custody forecast.

Small Group Meeting Review Follow-up Work, Progress: New data needed/wanted: –Need county supervision – who, where, when, why. –Want new predictors: detention, probation violations –Want risk assessments: Damon is confused – JCP, RNA, etc. Data received from OYA. (No good PV data.) In progress: Development of model based on the community placements. Most data work completed, but preliminary model not yet functional.

Concepts: Demand Using Community Youth Current referral-based approach: –Drop in demand more than practitioners’ observations –Assessment of all criminal referrals How can the model ‘see’ the practitioner viewpoint? –Kids on probation or parole - “community youth” –County or OYA supervision –… versus “anyone who’s ever been referred” Risk pool –Cleaner: better defined, more consistent –More closely tied to actual behavior since reviewed –Keep until adult? –Handles repeat entries (half or more)

Concepts: Demand Using Community Youth Potential Factors to Include –Referral information (same info as current) Most recent referral History of referrals for youth –Probation violations – no data –Detention episodes –Current supervision (esp. Parole)

Population Trends and Tracking Close Custody Populations PSR steadily reducing DOC increasing, flat or slightly down DOC and PSR Trends –DOC and PSR – actual beds vs. forecast –DCC population – demand index vs. forecast Referrals

Population Trends and Tracking Close Custody Populations – past decade

Population Trends and Tracking Close Custody Populations – past decade

Population Trends and Tracking Forecasts--- DOC and PSR populations, forecast: –Following expected trends –Forecast: No significant change expected Demand forecast –Based on demand index

Population Trends and Tracking DOC and PSR Populations – Long Term

Population Trends and Tracking DOC and PSR Populations – Actual, Forecast Error: +1.6% (Forecast is high by 6 beds) Error: +5% (Forecast is high by 4 beds)

Population Trends and Tracking DCC: Discretionary bed demand forecast –Based on demand index (no actuals to compare) –Compare to changes in demand index Demand from past forecasts Demand index is down 15% since Jan Graphs: Demand index and other referral trends Forecast DateDCC Demand April and almost flat Oct and decreasing April and increasing Oct and increasing April and flat

Population Trends and Tracking DCC Demand (Discretionary Bed Demand)

Population Trends and Tracking DCC Demand and Number Referrals Monthly

Population Trends and Tracking DCC Demand and Felony Referrals

Population Trends and Tracking DCC Demand and Youths’ Past Felony Referrals

Population Trends and Tracking DCC Demand and Referral Trends

Roundtable Juvenile Justice Issues Observed Trends …

Next Steps Committee Decisions October forecast –Determination of demand for discretionary Continue work on community model?

Adjourn Meeting Thank you Please call or with any other comments, ideas, issues, etc. Torri Lynn Damon Bell Next Meeting: Wednesday, September 22 at 1:30 pm (same place)

EXTRA GRAPHS

Population Trends and Tracking Length of Stay for Releases N=53 N=23

Population Trends and Tracking Average Age in Population

Number of Juveniles

THE FOLLOWING SLIDES ARE FROM THE FEBRUARY 24, 2010 COMMITTEE MEETING

Statistical Summaries Decade 2000

Referrals (felony, misdemeanor, violation, other) Population adjusted rate shows a stronger decline

Statistical Summaries Decade 2000 Felony Referrals

Statistical Summaries Decade 2000 Felony Referrals by Year and Class

Statistical Summaries Decade 2000 Felony Referrals – Person Related / Other

Statistical Summaries Decade 2000 Felony Referrals – Person Related / Other Person Related: Sex Offense Assault Homicide Related Weapons Robbery Person Other Other: Arson Burglary Theft Criminal Mischief Substance/Alcohol Other 53% Drop 30% Drop

Statistical Summaries Decade 2000 Felony Referrals -- Race and Type Other Person Related

Statistical Summaries Decade 2000 Misdemeanor Referrals Violations/other are similar to misdemeanors referrals in overall number and in change from 2000 to 2009

Statistical Summaries Decade 2000 Misdemeanor Referrals by Year and Class

Juvenile Incarceration Rate State Comparisons Census of Juveniles in Residential Placement Number of committed juveniles – total Includes state, local, public, private Calculated Rate: number per 100,000 Using ages 9-17 for denominator Rates and change in rates: 1999 and 2006 “Includes juveniles in placement in the facility as part of a court-ordered disposition. Committed juveniles may have been adjudicated and disposed in juvenile court or convicted and sentenced in criminal court.” Sickmund, Melissa, Sladky, T.J., and Kang, Wei. (2008) "Census of Juveniles in Residential Placement Databook." Online. Available:

Juvenile Incarceration Rates State Comparisons Rate per 100,000 – Year

Juvenile Incarceration Rates State Comparisons Rate per 100,000 – Year