From Satellite to Whales: Stewardship of Living Marine Resources Dave Foley Joint Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research University of Hawai`i at Manoa and Environmental Research Division NOAA Southwest Fisheries Science Center NASA Symposium Washington, D.C. June 24, 2009

Overview: Living Marine Resources Animals we are discussing today: –Sustainably-managed fishes such as sardines and salmon –Protected species such as whales and dolphins Impacts of Climate Change –Long-term changes in anchovy and sardine fisheries resulting from changes in their environment. –Possible links to the collapse of the California salmon fishery in 2008 and 2009 New developments in forecasting capabilities stemming from synergy amongst NASA-funded projects –“ Whalecasts” Transitioning NASA science to operational applications at NOAA and other partners –Provide timely and reliable delivery of such products to resource managers and decision makers

Forecasting Anchovy and Sardine Transitions Develop remote-sensing products for fisheries decision support systemsDevelop remote-sensing products for fisheries decision support systems Develop strong theoretical basis for forecasting using in situ and satellite dataDevelop strong theoretical basis for forecasting using in situ and satellite data Develop 50-year model hindcasts and test theoryDevelop 50-year model hindcasts and test theory Develop 2-9 month model forecasts and incorporate into fisheries decision support systemsDevelop 2-9 month model forecasts and incorporate into fisheries decision support systems

4 Does the Model Really Work? Comparison between Model and Satellite Modeled SST ( o C) Satellite SST ( o C) 4

Cetacean Avoidance Allow environmental planners and managers to estimate and avoid potential interactions (e.g., ship strikes, oil drilling noise, Navy exercises) with protected marine species.Allow environmental planners and managers to estimate and avoid potential interactions (e.g., ship strikes, oil drilling noise, Navy exercises) with protected marine species. Employ new, high-quality satellite products to provide daily predictions of cetacean density for existing spatial decision support system.Employ new, high-quality satellite products to provide daily predictions of cetacean density for existing spatial decision support system. Leverage NASA-funded FAST forecasts to provide “Whalecasts”, 6-9 months in advanceLeverage NASA-funded FAST forecasts to provide “Whalecasts”, 6-9 months in advance

Sample Density Model Results Relating Fin Whale Presence/Absence to the Marine Environment Fin whale Balaenoptera physalus Key Parameters distance to 2,000m isobath, depth, sea surface temperature (SST), SST variance and sea state

Spatial Decision Support System Website Click for details Courtesy of Jason Roberts, Duke University

Fin Whale Hindcast with ROMS: Linkages to Other NASA Efforts Pathfinder Sep - Dec 2005 ROMS Oct 2005 Fin whale (Balaenoptera physalus) ROMS output from the NASA FAST Project (Chavez, Chao, Chai and Barber) - will soon be providing forecasts with 9 month lead time

Forecasting West Coast Salmon Abundance Complete closure of California Salmon fishery in 2008 and 2009Complete closure of California Salmon fishery in 2008 and 2009 –Loss of revenue –Change in way of life for many citizens Newly-funded NASA projects to examine changes in ocean and river habitatsNewly-funded NASA projects to examine changes in ocean and river habitats –Habitat mapping using ROMS/Cosine ecosystem models

Chinook Potential Habitat (Based on Satellite SST)

Ecological Forecasting at Work: Anchovies and Sardines Cetacean Avoidance Ecological Forecasting at Work II: West Coast Salmon Ecological Forecasting at Work: Anchovies and Sardines Francisco Chavez, Monique Messié (Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute), Fei Chai, Lei Shi, Yi Xu (University of Maine), Yi Chao and Hongchun Zhang (NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory), Richard T. Barber and T. Sakagami (Duke University), David Foley (Joint Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, University of Hawai`I) Cetacean Avoidance Ben Best, Ei Fujioka, Pat Halpin, and Jason Roberts (Duke University), Lisa Ballance, Jay Barlow, Elizabeth Becker, Steven Bograd, Karin Forney, and Jessica Redfern (NOAA - National Marine Fisheries Service), Dave Foley and Daniel Palacios (Joint Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, University of Hawai`i at Manoa) Ecological Forecasting at Work II: West Coast Salmon Francisco Chavez, Monique Messié (Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute), Fei Chai (University of Maine), Yi Chao (NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory), S. Bograd, S. Lindley, B. Wells (NOAA Southwest Fisheries Science Center), Dave Foley (Joint Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, University of Hawai`i) Collaborators