Ecosystem Based Modeling for Sustainable Regional Development of the Marine and Estuarine Resources in Coastal NSW Philip Gibbs Karen Astles

The Program & Linkages DPI/CSIRO 5 year collaboration ‘Umbrella program’ Comprehensive Coastal Assessment Enhanced decision support tools for NRM action plans (phase 2) Northern Rivers CMA (CLAM project) Initial project in Clarence Estuary CSIRO National Research Flagships ‘Wealth from Oceans’ theme

Objectives Modelling frameworks for a multiple – use management of coastal environments Develop and apply models of the ecosystem and human activities Design and evaluate potential ‘monitoring programs’ Broad “Whole of Landscape” Modelling

Data Management Objectives Management strategy/ scenarios Presentation of outputs to decision makers Policy formation Management responses Monitoring/ adaptive management Building virtual ecosystem (Operating model) Atlantis Biogeochemical model Program Outline

Human activities impacts Ecosystem Modelling & Monitoring Management

Interface Between ManagementScience Stakeholders

Climate Change National Adaptation Framework Coastal Vulnerability Assessment Increasing Temperature Rainfall:- variability, total amount, ENSO Sea level rise Increasing ocean acidity

Likely Impacts Ocean current changes Storm surges Freshwater flow to estuaries Habitat change Recruitment patterns fish & invertebrates Biodiversity, Threatened species, Marine pests Socio economic effects

Tools Spatial biogeochemical model with coupled physical transport ‘ATLANTIS’ – – Physical box model in 3 dimensions – – Nutrient flow (nitrogen silica), mass balance of functional groups (physical, O 2 CO 2, living, detritus) – – Trophic dynamics (food web) of primary & secondary producers / consumers (phytoplankton to dolphins) – – Growth, mortality, recruitment, migration, consumption, excretion, predation, habitat dependency Computational limit

“What if” Scenarios Timeframe 1950 to 2030 Fisheries management – catch, effort, gear, zoning, closures, by-catch Climate change Land-use Increasing population and urbanisation Socio economic change

The Future Finer resolution of the shelf model nearshore component Explicit representation of Marine Parks Second estuary with a focus on urban rather than agricultural inputs Coupling of estuary and shelf models Documentation of the “what if” outputs

Is Ecosystem Modelling Possible? Plants and Animals People (social) Economics Geophysical environment Politics

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