Why do people vote the way they do? DO NOW Make a list of factors that can influence voting behaviour. Start by making your own list, then compare it with a partner. Once you are both satisfied that you have identified as many as possible, try to agree which you think are the three most important.

Is it because of strong party identification? Is it because of social factors? Is it because of issues? Is it because of a dominant ideology? Is it because they are influenced by the media? Is it because they make rational choices based on where they think their interests lie? Why do people vote the way they do?

Learning objectives To evaluate the factors affecting voting behaviour by identifiable social groups To identify and explain trends in voting behaviour in 2010 To form a hypothesis about likely voting behaviour in May, 2015

General election 2010 In pairs, review the turnout data for the 2010 general election and attempt to answer the following questions: What do you notice about the pattern of support for each of the three major parties? Who votes for them? Why do you think this might be? What do you notice about the change in support for each of the major parties? What are the biggest changes vs. 2005? What hypothesis could you form to explain the pattern of support for each of the major parties?

Turnout 2010: Gender, age

Turnout 2010: Gender, social class

Voting patterns in Britain were fairly stable early 1950s--late 1970s ≥90% of the electorate voted for one of the major parties ≥ 90% of the electorate claimed strong party identification Hence there were very limited swings between elections Class was the dominant factor in determining voting preference with over 2/3 of the working class consistently voting Labour How have voting patterns changed?

Party Middle class (ABC1) Skilled working class (C2) Unskilled working class (DE) Conservative Labour How have voting patterns changed?

From the late 1970s onwards, the nature of voting behaviour has changed significantly Party identification has declined dramatically, with ≤40% of the population claiming to support a party The percentage of ‘swing’ and/or tactical voters has therefore risen dramatically How have voting patterns changed?

Party 2010A2015P2015P vs 2010A VotesSeatsVotesSeatsGainsLosses Net change Conservative36.97% % Labour29.66% % LibDem23.56%578.52% UKIP3.17%015.55%0000 SNP2.26%94.39% Other4.37%196.65%19 What are we expecting this time?

Pollsters don’t always get in right. The BBC conducted analysis of how accurate each of the major polling companies was in According to this analysis, the average polling error of each of the major companies was:accurate Ipsos-MORI: 2.0 ICM: 2.0 Populus: 2.0 ComRes: 2.3 YouGov: 3.0 Beware predictions …

Working in groups, research the voting intentions of one of the following social groups: −Middle class white voters −Working class white voters −Muslim voters (all social classes) −Female voters (all social classes) −Older voters (over 50s) A good place to start is with the polling companies. The leading UK pollsters are: Ipsos-MORI, ICM Unlimited, Populus, ComRes, and YouGov Why do people vote the way they do?

We also need to explain why this particular group is likely to vote in a particular way. What are the issues that seem to drive voting behaviour for your particular demographic group. Why do people vote the way they do?

Feedback Report back on your social group.