The Case of Turkey in 2009/10 Mark Roland Thomas

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 Doubts about macro stability; no IMF program  Progress on public sector management reforms  Lack of progress on reforms affecting private investment, the business climate, & employment  Crisis response: good dialogue & policy reforms  Strong government demand for DPL support In mid-2009 the Bank commenced preparation of a $1.3 billion DPL to support Turkey’s crisis response 3 PREM Week 2012: Gender & DPL

Male and female labor-force participation in international comparison, PREM Week 2012: Gender & DPL

Male and female labor-force informality status, by age 5 PREM Week 2012: Gender & DPL

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 3 programs Public sector Private sector Energy and sustainability  Public sector Pensions, health systems, fiscal sustainability, PFM  Private sector Investment climate, regulation, customs, labor market  Crisis response Transfers: short-term “job protection” Vocational training: scale-up Financial sector liquidity 8 PREM Week 2012: Gender & DPL

 Education Preschool has an impact on labor force participation AND intergenerational transmission of inequality  Health Green card system of universal access protects female and maternal outcomes especially  Labor markets Policies to reduce informality and help SMEs will benefit women differentially  Cultural factors 9 PREM Week 2012: Gender & DPL

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 Maintaining Inclusive Social Programs at Sustainable Cost Social Security and Universal Health Insurance Law implementation Global budgets for MOH hospitals and spending controls in university and private hospitals  Strengthening Public Financial Management Performance based budgeting  Employment and Social Protection during the Crisis CBRT blind broker function 50% increase and extension of short-time employment compensation to reduce layoffs Expansion of loan guarantees for SMEs (by TL 1 billion) Accelerated expansion of vocational training (and stipends)  Private-Sector Led Growth and Job Creation after the Crisis Private sector Streamlined customs procedures Launch of universal preschool education (initially in 32 of 82 provinces) with hiring of 15,000 preschool teachers 12 PREM Week 2012: Gender & DPL

 Positive net distributional & poverty reduction impacts Healthcare copayments have mild negative impact; to be weighed against fiscal sustainability Employment-related crisis measures dominate effect of copayments 30% of poorest 2 quintiles eligible for short-time employment compensation Vocational training has short-term impact on incomes (through stipend) Long-term poverty reduction impacts of building confidence after the crisis  c.f : poverty declined from 27% to 17%  Differential impacts of program on women & the young Informal workers, children & young workers most at risk of poverty Preschool education reduces poverty through improved educational attainment & labor force participation of parents, particularly mothers  Estimated impacts: incomes >8%, within-cohort poverty 9% Reduced SS contributions for young workers & women has limited impact 13 PREM Week 2012: Gender & DPL

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1. Built a strong base of focused empirical analysis 2. Ignored boundaries between sectors on poverty & gender dialogue 3. Exercised pragmatism in designing a feasible DPL structure 4. Invested in a detailed simulation-driven PSIA 5. Kept an eye on the long-term impact of a collaborative client relationship 6. Accepted limitations from cultural factors affecting gender outcomes 15 PREM Week 2012: Gender & DPL

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