Ken Jucks and Diane Wickland Carbon Monitoring System: The NASA HQ Perspective November 13, 2014

2 Welcome! CMS is all about carbon monitoring products and capabilities to meet national needs. Since 2010, and in response to Congressional direction, NASA has been prototyping and evaluating remote-sensing derived data products and capabilities and has been interacting with representative end users of such information to better understand and meet their needs. The NASA Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) project is forward- looking and designed to make significant contributions in characterizing, quantifying, understanding, and predicting the evolution of global carbon sources and sinks through improved monitoring of carbon stocks and fluxes.

FY2014 Congressional Appropriation Direction: "Of the funds provided within the Earth Science research and analysis activity, the Committee recommends $10,000,000 to continue efforts for the development of a carbon monitoring system. The majority of the funds should be directed toward acquisition, field sampling, quantification, and development of a prototype Monitoring Reporting and Verification [MRV] system which can provide transparent data products achieving levels of precision and accuracy required by current carbon trading protocols. The Committee is concerned that NASA has not established a program of record around the development of MRV system, and therefore expects a plan from NASA not later than 90 days after enactment of this act incorporating such a system into its operating plan and long-term budget projection. The Committee recognizes that the current orbital and suborbital platforms are insufficient to meet these objectives. Therefore, the use of commercial off-the-shelf technologies is recommended as these products could provide robust calibration validation datasets for future NASA missions." CMS 2014 Direction

4 Phase 2c of CMS research was initiated in 2014 to focus on new studies to develop prototype Monitoring Reporting and Verification (MRV) system capabilities for local and regional applications and to allow for extension or improvement of the Phase 1 CMS flux and biomass products. The CMS activities selected involve: (1) Studies using commercial off-the-shelf technologies to produce and evaluate prototype monitoring, reporting, and verification system approaches and/or calibration and validation data sets for future NASA missions, including support of REDD, REDD+, or SilvaCarbon projects (6 studies), (2) Studies that address research needs to advance remote sensing-based approaches to monitoring, reporting, and verification (3 studies), and (3) Studies that advance upon, extend, and/or improve the existing CMS products for biomass and flux resulting from NASA’s first phases of CMS pilot studies (7 studies).  This 2014 selection and the ongoing investigations selected in 2013 have fully committed NASA’s 2015 funding for CMS. Therefore NASA is not planning to solicit for CMS in ROSES CMS 2014 Selection

5 The NASA HQ Program Leads for CMS (Jucks & Wickland) and the CMS ST Leader (Hurtt) assembled a small group of CMS investigators (Bowman, Brown, Duren, Hagen, and Verdy) to join them in drafting the report to Congress and a progress report for wide distribution.  A CMS project line-item is already incorporated into NASA’s long-term budget projection and operating $10M/yr.  Report describes the overall context (big picture) for NASA CMS and NASA’s approach to carbon monitoring to meet U.S. national needs.  Report summarizes progress to date  Report describes NASA’s longer-term strategy for CMS work and its vision regarding the NASA’s role in Monitoring, Reporting, and Verification (MRV). Reporting to Congress

6 NASA’s Commitment to Carbon Monitoring NASA will provide leadership in conducting prototyping work and pilot studies toward the development of carbon monitoring capabilities for MRV with an emphasis on the role that satellite and airborne observations and data products can play in a robust national capability. NASA will take action to ensure that what is learned about the value/utility of certain satellite observations within the CMS project is applied in planning for future satellite missions. As these capabilities mature and the requirements for U.S. MRV are defined, NASA expects to play a strong role as one of several agencies providing key data and information products. NASA will contribute essential satellite observations and data products, modeling expertise and model products, and scientific expertise for interpretation. NASA’s Strategy & Vision

7 Specific Priorities for the Future NASA CMS Project: 1. Utilizing Future Satellite Sensors (e.g., SMAP, ICESat-2, GEDI, NISAR) 2. Prototyping with COTS Technology 3. Expanding the Range of Prototyping Activities (additional prototyping studies to address the high diversity of ecosystem types, landscape complexity, and stakeholder needs; biomass and flux products will be combined; studies to improve carbon flux attribution). 4. Rigorous Evaluation, Uncertainty Quantification, Error Characterization 5. CMS User/Stakeholder Engagement 6. Partnerships (NASA recognizes the importance of partnering for capabilities best performed by other agencies and high-quality data from other sources: USDA, DOE, NOAA, EPA, Japan (GOSAT and GOSAT-2), ESA (Biomass and Sentinel-5 Precursor/TROPOMI)) 7. Modeling and Data Assimilation NASA’s Strategy & Vision

8 In the first 2010 and 2012, NASA funded mo. studies at the Congressionally directed level out of current FY funds only. In 2013, for Phase 2b, NASA created an ongoing budget line and committed to 3-year budget profiles. NASA expects Congress to continue to provide guidance for how CMS funding is allocated.  NASA has a desire to continue NASA-appropriate and productive activities where current funding is about to expire.  However, it is necessary to follow Congressional direction when setting future directions.  Feedback from stakeholders will be essential in guiding these future directions. Building a Long-term Program

FY2015 DRAFT: "Carbon Monitoring. - Of the funds provided within the Earth Science research and analysis activity, the Committee recommends no less than $8,000,000 to continue efforts for the development of a carbon monitoring system. The majority of the funds should be directed toward acquisition, field sampling, quantification, and development of a prototype monitoring, reporting and verification system. Priority should be given to mapping States that have previously demonstrated the ability and willingness to map forests on a county level to enable the program to demonstrate how to cost effectively scale these measurements.“ CMS 2015 Draft Language

10 Backup

11  NASA’s Approach in prototyping, researching, and scoping a carbon monitoring system emphasizes exploitation of the satellite remote sensing resources, computational capabilities, scientific knowledge, airborne science capabilities, and end-to-end system expertise that are major NASA strengths  Significant effort is being devoted to rigorous evaluation of the carbon monitoring products being produced, as well as to the characterization and quantification of errors and uncertainties in those products.  Emphasis has been on regional, national, and global satellite-based carbon monitoring products relevant to national needs for completely transparent carbon and biomass inventory processes.  NASA’s approach takes into account data and expertise that are the domain of other U.S. Government agencies and anticipates continuing close communications and/or partnerships with those agencies.  NASA’s approach also recognizes a need for complementary local-scale (airborne and in situ) information to demonstrate quantitative remote sensing methods; to aid in scaling up; and for essential evaluation of products.  Additionally, this approach lays the groundwork for CMS-related applications of future NASA satellite sensors now in development. NASA’s Approach to CMS

12 Phase 1 of CMS prototyping and pilot study research initiated in 2010 focused on two CMS pilot studies and several scoping efforts:  A Biomass and Carbon Storage Pilot Product  An Integrated Emission/Uptake (“Flux”) Pilot Product  Scoping studies and research to understand the needs of end users and scope potential new carbon monitoring products  A Science Definition Team (SDT) to guide the NASA Center-led work Phase 2a of CMS research was initiated in 2012 to build upon the lessons learned in the initial pilot studies and scoping efforts. The CMS activities selected involve:  Approaches that derive from or evolve the current pilot products and scoping efforts  Alternative approaches to the development of current carbon monitoring products (i.e., biomass and flux)  New carbon monitoring products, including those in need of further scoping research  A CMS Science Team (ST) and ST Leader (George Hurtt, U. Maryland) CMS Background Information

13 Phase 2b of CMS research was initiated in 2013 to focus on new studies to develop prototype Monitoring Reporting and Verification (MRV) system capabilities for local and regional applications and to fill gaps in the Phase 2a activities. The CMS activities selected involve: (1) acquisition, field sampling, quantification and development of prototype Monitoring Reporting and Verification (MRV) system capabilities which can provide transparent data products achieving levels of precision and accuracy required by current carbon trading protocols (7 studies), (2) use of this type of information for local and regional applications related to Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD) in developing nations (5 studies; with ties to SilvaCarbon), and (3) filling gaps in ongoing NASA CMS research regarding quantification of errors and uncertainties in NASA CMS products (3 studies) and in understanding and engaging the users of carbon monitoring information (2 studies). CMS Background Information