Climate Impact on MEC’s Infrastructure –Attempt to Quantify NYC's Risks from Coastal Storm Surges in the Face of Global Warming and Sea-Level Rise. K. Jacob Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University

MEC: LDEO of Columbia, K. Jacob 2 RISK  Risk ($-Loss) = ∑ (Hazard x Assets x Fragility)  Moderate Hazard but High Impact  Total MEC built Assets ≈ 2 Trillion $  Infrastructure Assets ≈ 1 Trillion $  Fragilities largely undetermined  This study: How often will which facilities be flooded, given the sea level rise scenarios?  Only Qualitative Loss and Impact Estimates are possible at this state of study.

MEC: LDEO of Columbia, K. Jacob 3 Landuse Map for MEC Region Barren Land

MEC: LDEO of Columbia, K. Jacob 4 NYC Storm Surge Inundation Map

MEC: LDEO of Columbia, K. Jacob 5 Examples: Flooded PATH Station – 1992 Nor’easter

MEC: LDEO of Columbia, K. Jacob Manhattan: FDR Northbound / 80 th St.

MEC: LDEO of Columbia, K. Jacob 7 La Guardia Airport - Nov. 25, 1950

MEC: LDEO of Columbia, K. Jacob 8 Category 1-4 Storm Surge Heights (Worst Case) in ft above NGVD, for PANYNJ Facilities Ft

MEC: LDEO of Columbia, K. Jacob 9 Cat 1 - Manhattan / Bkyn Bat. Tnl.

MEC: LDEO of Columbia, K. Jacob 10 Cat 2 - Manhattan / Holland Tnl

MEC: LDEO of Columbia, K. Jacob 11 Projected Surge Height & Infrastructure Elev. Using Coney Island Surge Data, all values in feet above NGVD CCGG STORM SURGE ELEVATIONS (vertical axis, ft) for 7 recurrence periods Tr between 2 and 500 years (7 curves), and their increase with time (horizontal axis, years) from the present to 2090, due to expected sea level rise for climate model CCGG. Note : 10ft surge has now (in 2000) a recurrence period of 50 years which shortens to 2 years by about Facility elevations are plotted at arbitrary years, and their symbols are keyed by agency

MEC: LDEO of Columbia, K. Jacob 12 Based on Saffir-Simpson (SS) Scale for Hurricanes Hurricane Risk Estimates for MEC:  one SS=1 every years; Loss: $ 5 billion  one SS=2 every years; Loss: $ 10 billion  one SS=3 every years; Loss: $ 50 bill.  one SS=3-4 every years; Loss: $ 100 bill.  one SS=4 every years; Loss: $ >250 bill.  Annualized Loss ≈ $ Million/Year or about 0.02% of the Gross Regional Product (Acceptable)  But: Probable Maximum Loss (PML) can be on the order of 0.5 to 25% of GRP !!!

MEC: LDEO of Columbia, K. Jacob 13 Conclusions  Many infrastructures are at elevations 6 to 20 feet above current sea level and are now prone to flooding every few decades to a century.  Projecting seal level rise of 1 - 3ft to the year 2100, the same structures will sustain equivalent flooding every few years to decades, i.e. flooding frequency will rise by factors of 2 to 10 by  Unless bold engineering and land use mitigation measures are implemented, tens to hundreds of billions of dollars of losses from storms and flooding can be expected every few decades to centuries.  On an annualized basis these losses make only a miniscule fraction of the GRP (0.0002). But the problem is that extraordinarily large losses can occur in a SINGLE LARGE EVENT ( ≈ $ 100 Bill.) which would be a severe stress on the region’s economy in any given year (a few % of GRP), with possible national/international ripple effects.  As “mitigation” emergency evacuation plans have been developed to reduce loss of lives, but they do not prevent financial losses. Long-term mitigation of economic losses, e.g. by new zoning, construction codes, flood insurance policy, and landuse combined with engineering solutions are not in place, yet are URGENTLY needed. They should be implemented as part of the regular infrastructure rebuilding program which already costs a good fraction of $100Billion/decade.  To win this race against time requires a Change of Culture that must outpace the expected Change of Climate.