Problem Solving / Decision MakingChapter Problem Solving / Decision Making Kepner-Tregoe The New Rational Manager Chapter 2

Problem Solving / Decision MakingChapter Chapter 2 Contents u Conditions & Skills of Problem Solving u Structure of a Problem u The Process of Problem Analysis (PA)

Problem Solving / Decision MakingChapter People and Problems u People like to solve problems and will seek them out if four conditions are met l they posses the skills need to solve the problem l they experience success in using those skills l they are rewarded for being successful l they do not fear failure

Problem Solving / Decision MakingChapter Problem Analysis u Problem Analysis (PA) provides the skills needed to explain any situation in which an expected level of performance is not being achieved and in which the cause of the unacceptable performance is unknown.

Problem Solving / Decision MakingChapter PA Continued u We are concerned with the way in which information is used to approach deviation in performance. u Decision making based on FACTS and DATA!

Problem Solving / Decision MakingChapter Problems Not Solved u We’ve all experienced the “solved” problem that isn’t really solved. u Problem solving by extrapolation l need solution quick - no time l rely on memories l past similar problems l past successes

Problem Solving / Decision MakingChapter K-T’s View of Problem Solving vs Decision Making u A decision requires answers to questions of the form: l How? l Which? u A problem always requires an answer to the question: l Why?

Problem Solving / Decision MakingChapter The Two Forms of Problems u Performance once met the SHOULD and no longer does. l See Figure 1 (W p 25, B p 37) u ACTUAL performance has always been below SHOULD. l See Figure 2 (W p 25, B p 37)

Problem Solving / Decision MakingChapter Techniques of PA u State the Problem u Specify the Problem u Develop Possible Causes u Test Possible Causes u Determine the Most Probable Cause u Verify Assumptions, Observe, Experiment, or Try a Fix and Monitor

Problem Solving / Decision MakingChapter Case History u Review the Leaking Soybean Oil Filter case u It is used extensively throughout the remainder of the chapter u Also review the PA_Worksheet template

Problem Solving / Decision MakingChapter Problem Statement u Name the Problem l Be precise l Is the deviation from SHOULD clear l Is the cause unknown u Case l “Number One Filter Leaking Oil” u An important paragraph (W p 29, not in B but I will provide)

Problem Solving / Decision MakingChapter Specify the Problem u Describe the problem in detail using four dimensions: l What - identify the deviation we are trying to explain l Where - location of the deviation l When - timing of the deviation l Extent - magnitude of the deviation u See Fig 3, (W p 30, B p 41-42) - IS col.

Problem Solving / Decision MakingChapter IS and IS NOT u Any problem can be described by answering the IS specifying questions l question wording may need to be modified to suit; especially for a human performance problem l establish problem detection facts & data u Next we need a basis of comparison l What COULD BE but IS NOT

Problem Solving / Decision MakingChapter IS NOT u Nothing is more conducive to sound analysis than some relevant basis of comparison u Search in all four dimensions looking for Closest Logical Comparison u This narrows the scope of the search for cause; isolates distinguishing features u Fig 4, (W p 33, B p 44-45) - IS NOT col.

Problem Solving / Decision MakingChapter Develop Possible Causes u We will use Distinctions and Changes to lead us to Possible Causes. u As we proceed, remember: l knowledge and experience are key l brainstorm - don’t close too quickly l “cast a large net”

Problem Solving / Decision MakingChapter Distinctions u Ask “what is distinctive about (the IS data) when compared with (the IS NOT data)?” l for all specifying questions in all dimensions. u See Figure 5, (W p 36-37, B p 48-49)

Problem Solving / Decision MakingChapter Changes u We now search for the of change between acceptable and unacceptable performance (remember Figure 1) u What changed in, on, around, or about each Distinction? u See Figure 6, (W p 39, B p 51) - Distinction column

Problem Solving / Decision MakingChapter Possible Causes u If all relevant information about a problem has been obtained, the explanation of cause will emerge u Ask “how could this distinction (or this change) have produced the deviation described in the problem statement. u See Possible Causes on pages (W p , B p 52-53)

Problem Solving / Decision MakingChapter Test Possible Causes u Test Possible Causes l Does it explain the WHAT, WHERE, WHEN, and EXTENT? l Does it require no (or minimal) additional assumptions to make it work? l Are necessary assumptions reasonable? u Identify the most likely possible cause.

Problem Solving / Decision MakingChapter Confirm Cause u Confirmation seeks to verify the cause and effect relationship l additional information l additional actions u Observe u Experiment u Fix and Monitor

Problem Solving / Decision MakingChapter Most Common Causes of Failure u Using inaccurate or vague information u Insufficiently identification of key distinctions and changes u Allowing assumptions to distort judgement u PA is a process, not a Panacea l review concluding comments (W p , B p )