Public Opinion Chapter 7

What is Public Opinion? Public Opinion is the collective attitude of citizens on a given issue or question In a democracy, government policy is supposed to be made in response to the public’s wishes Democratic theory implies that government leaders are able to ascertain what the public is thinking about current political and social issues

Majoritarian Model Government should do what the majority wants Direct election of House supposed to take public opinion into account Legislation passed by a majority of the House does not necessarily reflect the opinions of a majority of citizens

The U.S. is a majoritarian system Psych! Budget deficit vs. balanced budget ERA not ratified vs. most people supported it Impeach Clinton vs. most opposed it Term limits wanted vs. not approved Get out of Iraq vs. Still in Iraq

If, If, If… If we were to use the majoritarian model to make policy, we would need a way to do it How do we find out what people think about what government should do? Opinion Polling

January 2007 Example As you may know, the Bush administration is considering a temporary but significant increase in the number of US troops in Iraq to help stabilize the situation there. Would you favor or oppose this? 18% Strongly favor 18% Moderately favor 19% Moderately Oppose 42% Strongly Oppose 3% No opinion

majoritarian? democratic? Knowing how often government policy runs against majority opinion, it becomes harder to defend the U.S. government as democratic under the majoritarian view of democracy

??????????? Perhaps there is another model at work here:

Pluralist Model Role of government: protect and promote diversity of opinion. Human nature is selfish and acquisitive. Government must merely allow free expression of the often numerous “minority” opinions (Government doesn’t have to do exactly what the groups or the majority want)

Pluralism Public seldom demonstrates clear opinions on the day-to-day operations of government Some subgroups (factions?) will have vigorous opinions on some issues

More About Polling

Apparently, polling has been going on for awhile “The Battle of the Bulge Poll”

How is this possible? Statistical sampling theory and computer technology have made it possible to better understand the distribution of the population’s beliefs and attitudes about politics and government “Sampling a Few, Predicting to Everyone”

Modern survey research methodology allows national opinion to be estimated within specified degrees of accuracy

Factors Influencing Accuracy The way the sample is selected (random sampling is needed to compute sampling error) The size of the sample (national samples of 1500 cases will be accurate within three percentage points, plus or minus) The amount of variation in the population (pollsters compute sampling accuracy by assuming maximum variation in the population)

Polls Specifics: For populations over 500,00 pollsters need to make about 15,000 phone calls to reach 1,065 respondents, ensuring the poll has a sampling error of only +/- 3% Increasingly difficult to get this number because of call-screening New problem: cell-phone-only homes Low response rates harm reliability

Polling Dictionary Wonderful Polling Vocabulary

Questions Why must a public opinion sample be a random sample? Why not simply stop a random group of citizens on the street? Why is the sampling error margin so important to the accurate prediction required by modern polling methods? How might a survey be “loaded”? How can the way a question is worded influence how one responds to it?

To have a hotlineFor government to set up a hotline Questionnaire design: The Effect of One Word Kaiser Family Foundation/Harvard University National Survey of Americans’ Views on Consumer Protections in managed Care, January 1998 How important do you think it is to have a hotline telephone number people can call to get help when they have problems with their health plan? How important do you think it is for the GOVERNMENT to set up a hotline telephone number people can call to get help when they have problems with their health plan? Very ImportantSomewhat ImportantNot too importantNot at all important

Questionnaire design: Balance in question wording What’s wrong with these questions? Do you support the United States taking military action against Iraq? If you heard that Candidate X supported stricter gun control laws, would that make you more likely to vote for her? Did you happen to vote in the presidential election in 2000?

Questionnaire design: Balance in question wording Bad questions, improved: Do you support or oppose the United States taking military action against Iraq? If you heard that Candidate X supported stricter gun control laws, would that make you more likely to vote for her, less likely to vote for her, or wouldn’t it make much difference? Did you happen to vote in the presidential election in 2000, or not?

Problem of Question Wording Would you support or oppose changing Senate rules to make it easier for the Republicans to confirm Bush’s judicial nominees? Support26% Oppose66% Washington Post/ABC News Poll 1007 Adults April Margin of Error +/- 3%

Problem of Question Wording The Republicans won the last election so President Bush should be able to appoint anyone he wants to the federal courts if a majority of the Senators agree. Agree53% Disagree43% Pew research Center Poll 1502 Adults, May 11-15, 2005 Margin of error +/- 3%

Problem of Question Wording The minority party ought to be able to block some of the judges they feel strongly about because judges are appointed to the federal courts for life terms. Agree62% Disagree30% Pew research Center Poll 1502 Adults, May 11-15, 2005 Margin of error +/- 3%

Problem of Question Wording Senate rules should be changed so that a vote must be taken on every person the President nominates to become a judge. Yes57% No25% Rasmussen Reports Poll 1000 Adults, May Margin of Error +/- 3%

What guides people’s opinions? Political Ideology

Complex and interrelated set of values (and beliefs) that form a general philosophy of government. Complex and interrelated set of values (and beliefs) that form a general philosophy of government. Generates an individual’s position on political and social issues and influences their opinions (and attitudes) about events. Generates an individual’s position on political and social issues and influences their opinions (and attitudes) about events. Since they are based on values and beliefs, it tends to be intensely held, long-lasting, and difficult to change. Since they are based on values and beliefs, it tends to be intensely held, long-lasting, and difficult to change.

For Example:

And to think… Your ideology comes from your family!Your ideology comes from your family! Actually your family is one of the institutions that impacts Political SocializationActually your family is one of the institutions that impacts Political Socialization

Socializing Institutions The FamilyThe Family Social GroupsSocial Groups Involuntary Involuntary GenderGender EthnicityEthnicity RaceRace Class and Income?Class and Income? Voluntary Voluntary ReligionReligion EducationEducation OccupationOccupation UnionUnion Political PartyPolitical Party PeersPeers RegionRegion MediaMedia Economic InterestsEconomic Interests

Political Ideology Trivia:

Invention of Ideology &

Political Ideology Continuum:

Traditional Ideological Continuum

How we think The majority of Americans do not tend to think ideologically The majority of Americans do not tend to think ideologically People who form their political opinions on the basis of a disntict ideology constitute only about 20 percent of the electorate People who form their political opinions on the basis of a disntict ideology constitute only about 20 percent of the electorate Most people place themselves somewhere along the continuum, but few understand what that means politically Most people place themselves somewhere along the continuum, but few understand what that means politically

The Middle: Many Americans seem to choose the easy response and locate themselves in the center. Many Americans seem to choose the easy response and locate themselves in the center. Moderate Moderate Middle Middle Others may choose the middle because they have some conservative views and some liberal views Others may choose the middle because they have some conservative views and some liberal views

Critique of Traditional Continuum Critique Critique Does not differentiate economic and social issuesDoes not differentiate economic and social issues Does not take into account the ultra extremesDoes not take into account the ultra extremes Many are not “liberals” or “conservatives”Many are not “liberals” or “conservatives” Alternatives: Analysis Based Values Alternatives: Analysis Based Values Kevin PhillipsKevin Phillips Aaron WildavskiAaron Wildavski

Ideological Matrix

Values Based Ideology

Where do you stand? Get up. Stand up.

Where does everyone else stand? Who and Where? Really important.. Why? Simple Philosophical Framework for Ideology: People are generally good, People are generally not good

The End