Trends in travel – evidence to help think about the future David Metz Centre for Transport Studies University College London

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London population growth 6

Car traffic and use in London 7

London share of trips 8

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Conclusions: air travel Evidence of demand plateau (USA) and peak (Japan) – perhaps initial indications of market maturity Time constraints likely to operate but not understood – researchable Infrequent Flyers – a reservoir of demand? Main growth of Low Cost Carriers now historic Future demand – more uncertainty than generally supposed 19

Conclusions: daily travel Evidence from NTS –No time savings in long run –No increase in travel per capita since mid-1990s Theoretical framework of conventional appraisal and forecasting inconsistent with NTS and Peak Car evidence Investment strategies questionable –Too little urban rail –Too much inter-urban road civil engineering –Too little digital technologies 20

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