IAU XXVI th General Assembly, Prague 1 Institute of Geodesy and Geophysics, Vienna University of Technology 2 Space Research Centre, Polish Academy of.

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Presentation transcript:

IAU XXVI th General Assembly, Prague 1 Institute of Geodesy and Geophysics, Vienna University of Technology 2 Space Research Centre, Polish Academy of Sciences Harald Schuh 1 Maciej Kalarus 2

 to compare the various methods, models, techniques and strategies which can be applied for EOP prediction with equal rules  to apply the same statistical method for all results by a „referee”  to emphasize importance of EOP prediction within the IERS  to collect the predictions before any EOP observations are taken

predictionlength [days] resolution [days] ultra short-term 101 short-term 301 (30 points) medium-term 500 more than one full CW, more than one FCN period 5 (100 points)

participantcompany/organization Orhan Akyilmaz Daniel Gambis Richard Gross Maciej Kalarus Wiesław Kosek Sergey Kumakshev Hansjoerg Kutterer Leonid Zotov Istanbul Technical University, Turkey Paris Observatory, France NASA JPL, USA Space Research Centre, Polish Academy of Sciences, Poland Institute for Problems in Mechanics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Russia Institute of Geodesy, Technical University of Hannover, Germany Sternberg Astronomical Institute, Moscow, Russia

MPE  MPE MPE  MPE MPE- Mean Prediction Error  MPE- Error bars of the MPE LEGEND W. Kosek M. Kalarus O. Akyilmaz D. Gambis S. Kumakshev H. Kutterer L. Zotov R. Gross ID [days] x p [mas] [days] y p [mas] [days] [days] ultra short-term predictions of polar motion (45 submissions were used)

W. Kosek M. Kalarus O. Akyilmaz D. Gambis S. Kumakshev H. Kutterer L. Zotov R. Gross ID ultra short-term predictions of UT1-UTC and LOD MPE  MPE [days] UT1-UTC [ms] [days] MPE [days] LOD [ms/day] [days] LEGEND (45 submissions were used)

ABS (310 days of the first predictions were used) ABS- Absolute prediction error More results at LEGEND W. Kosek M. Kalarus O. Akyilmaz D. Gambis S. Kumakshev H. Kutterer L. Zotov R. Gross ID [days] x p [mas] [days] y p [mas] medium-term predictions of polar motion

 EOP PCC is going smoothly (46 ultra short-term, 11 short-term and 11 medium-term predictions were received)  In order to compute more reliable statistics and find the best prediction product we need more data for different epochs  Statistical analyses show that for different prediction intervals different methods should be taken.  Error bars (  MPE) of the Mean Prediction Error (MPE) are getting smaller but in most cases they still overlap each other. Therefore, the presented results give only a broad outline.

 Joint paper presenting results  Rules will be slightly changed  We are open for new participants  IERS Working Group on Prediction

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