Norges Bank 1 Executive Board Meeting 30 June 2005

Norges Bank 2 Estimated GDP growth in 2005 among Norway's trading partners. Per cent Source: Norges Bank

Norges Bank 3 CPI/HICP (core) in the US, the euro area, Japan and China 1) Percentage change on same month previous year Source: EcoWin / National statistics US Euro area Japan 1) CPI China

Norges Bank 4 Consumer prices in the Nordic countries Percentage rise on same month previous year Source: EcoWin / National statistics Norway (CPI-ATE) Sweden (UND1X) Denmark* * CPI excl. energy, food, alcohol and tobacco Finland*

Norges Bank 5 Indicator of external price impulses to imported consumer goods measured in foreign currency Annual figures. Per cent – ) 1) Projections for Source: Norges Bank

Norges Bank 6 Developments in 10-year government bond yields Source: EcoWin Norway US Germany

Norges Bank 7 Interest rate expectations for the US, the euro area and Sweden Sources: Reuters and Norges Bank US Euro area 28 June 24 May Sweden

Norges Bank 8 Oil price Brent Blend and futures prices Daily figures, USD per barrel. January June March (IR 1/05) Sources: Telerate, IPE and Norges Bank 28 June 24 June (IR 2/04) 24 May

Norges Bank 9 Oil futures prices USD per barrel light crude. Daily figures. January 2001 – June 2005 Delivery in 6-7 years Delivery in 1 month Source: EcoWin/ NYMEX

Norges Bank 10 CPI-ATE. Total and distributed by imported and domestically produced goods and services Historical and projections IR 1/05 (broken lines). 12-month change. Per cent Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Goods and services produced in Norway (0.7) Imported consumer goods (0.3) CPI-ATE

Norges Bank 11 3-month interest rate differential and import-weighted exchange rate (I-44) A fall in value denotes a depreciating currency. Daily figures Sources: Norges Bank and Bloomberg I-44 (right-hand scale) Weighted 3-month interest rate differential (left-hand scale) 24 May June 05

Norges Bank 12 Sources: Norges Bank and EcoWin I-44, interest rate differential (3-month) and expected interest rate differential (12-month) 1 year ahead I-44 1) (left-hand scale) Expected 1-year interest rate differential 1 year ahead (euro, USD, SEK, GBP) 3-month interest rate differential against trading partners (9 currencies) (right- hand scale) 1) A rising curve denotes an appreciating currency

Norges Bank 13 3-month money market rate and I-44 1) in scenario with stronger exchange rate (IR 1/05) Quarterly figures Q1 – 2008 Q4 I-44 in scenario with stronger exchange rate (right-hand scale) Interest rate in baseline scenario (left-hand scale) Interest rate in scenario with stronger exchange rate (left- hand scale) I June ) The figure for 2005 Q2 are based on the average through 29 June Source: Norges Bank

Norges Bank 14 Interest rate expectations Norway Sources: Norges Bank and Reuters 24 May 28 June

Norges Bank 15 Summary from regional network Round Demand is growing in all sectors at approximately the same pace as in the last round. The same growth rate is expected in the period ahead. Lowered expectations in the export and building and construction industries Approximately 40% of our contacts have some or considerable problems in meeting growth in demand. Building and construction and parts of petroleum-related industry have reached capacity Plans for a moderate increase in investment, as in previous round. Expect moderate growth in employment in all industries apart from the public sector In the future more people expect higher inflation than expect lower inflation, but the number expecting higher inflation is lower than earlier in Profitability is still increasing throughout the private sector, primarily among suppliers to the petroleum industry.

Norges Bank 16 Employment and man-hours worked Seasonally adjusted. Index 1996 Q1=100. Quarterly figures 1996 Q1 – 2005 Q1 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Number employed Man-hours

Norges Bank 17 Unemployed. LFS unemployment, registered unemployed and persons on labour market programmes In thousands. Seasonally adjusted. Monthly figures, Jan 2001 – May 2005 Sources: Statistics Norway and the Directorate of Labour Registered unemployed and on labour market programmes LFS unemployment Registered unemployed

Norges Bank 18 Investment intentions survey. Oil and gas recovery incl. pipeline transport. Estimated and actual investment. In billions of NOK Estimate published previous yearEstimate published same year Source: Statistics Norway Final figures 2006

Norges Bank 19 House prices from the real estate business Annualised 3-month centred moving change. Seasonally adjusted figures. Per cent Sources: Associations of Norwegian real estate agents (NEF, EFF) and Norges Bank

Norges Bank 20 Developments in banks' interest margins Per cent Source: Norges Bank Interest margin, total Lending margin Deposit margin

Norges Bank 21 3-month money-market rate and import-weighted exchange rate (I-44) 1) 2) in the baseline scenario. Quarterly figures Q1 – 2008 Q4 IR 2/05 Import-weight krone exchange rate I-44 (right-hand scale) 1) A rising curve denotes a weaker krone exchange rate. Reflects the forward rate on 24 June 2) The figures for 2005 Q2 are based on the average through 24 June Source: Norges Bank Interest rate (left-hand scale) IR 2/05 IR 1/05

Norges Bank 22 Projections for the CPI-ATE and output gap in the baseline scenario. Quarterly figures. Per cent. 04 Q1 – 08 Q4 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank CPI-ATE Output gap