Connecting The Dynamics of the Great Salt Lake Volumes to the Volume - Area Relationship IBRAHIM N. MOHAMMED DAVID G. TARBOTON Utah.

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Presentation transcript:

Connecting The Dynamics of the Great Salt Lake Volumes to the Volume - Area Relationship IBRAHIM N. MOHAMMED DAVID G. TARBOTON Utah Water Research Laboratory, Utah State University, Logan, Utah GSA presentation, Salt Lake City, Utah, USA, Oct. 18, 2005

Great Salt Lake The Great Salt Lake (latitude 40° to 42° N, longitude 112° to 113° W) is a closed lake in the lowest part of the Great basin, located in semiarid northwestern Utah, United States. Historic variation in level of the Great Salt Lake. (Implications for airport, SLC, Industries, Transportation Infrastructure …) Source: (USGS) feet meters

What is the role of topography/bathymetry in the lake dynamics and the occurrence of modes in the volume distribution? GSL Biweekly total Volume ( ) Multimodality observed in biweekly lake volumes , Lall et al., 1996 Acre-feet Frequency

GSL Total Volume Probability Density Function for record to date Gaussian kernels with 7.886e+05 bandwidth (LSCV; Silverman, 1986) Density Cubic Km Acre-feet

GSL Bathymetry Relations… Loving et al., 2000) (Loving et al., 2000) Volume (acre-feet) Area (acre) Volume (acre-feet) Level (feet) Area (acre)

Theory Mass Balance: Steady State: I I,E A Bathymetry: V f(I) f(A) f(V) f(E) A E V Bathymetry I = Inflow (Precipitation + Streamflow) [L 3 /T] E = Evaporation [L/T] A = Area [L 2 ] V = Volume [L 3 ]

Derived distributions f I (i)f A (a) f V (v) A E V Mass Balance Bathymetry

Application Observed Area density function Bathymetry Volume (ac-ft) dA/dV Area Density Volume (acre-feet) Cubic Km

Area’s PDF has modes already ? 1.Observed f A (a) with Constant dA/dV 2.f A (a) a normal distribution with observed dA/dV 3.Observed f A (a) with observed dA/dV How sensitive is f V (v) to bathymetry described by dA/dV? Area Density Function ( ) Area Density

Observed f A (a) with constant dA/dV GSL total Volume Modes Volume (acre-feet) Density

f A (a) a normal distribution with observed dA/dV GSL total Volume Modes Volume (acre-feet) Density

Observed f A (a) with observed dA/dV GSL total Volume Modes Density Volume (acre-feet)

All together,,, GSLtotal Volume Modes GSL total Volume Modes Volume (acre-feet) Density Obs. f A (a(V))  Obs. dA/dV Nrm. f A (a(V))  Obs. dA/dV Obs. f A (a(V))  Const. dA/dV Obs. f V (v)

Conclusions Multimodality in the area pdf suggests preferred states in driving inputs. Bathymetry through dA/dV modulates to the pdf of the lake volumes. Multimodality in the lake volume is due to both inputs (as inferred from area) and bathymetry through dA/dV.

FutureWork… Future Work… Role of Salinity ? Role of Salinity ? GSL Causeway (2 Lakes concept) GSL Causeway (2 Lakes concept) Role of Evaporation? Role of Evaporation?

Thank you!