Transitions to Democracy

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Paul Bacon SILS, Waseda University

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Presentation transcript:

Transitions to Democracy

The world circa 1960: 20-25 stable liberal democracies, some newly independent countries trying liberal democracy 80-90 countries either under or tending toward some form authoritarianism

located primarily in Western Europe, North America, & the white commonwealth: Australian New Zealand Canada

Latin America: alternated between shaky polyarchies and military government, e.g. Argentina Brazil Peru Mexico Paraguay…..

Communist party-state systems: USSR Poland Czechoslovakia Hungary Bulgaria Romania Yugoslavia People’s Republic of China North Korea North Viet Nam Albania

The three waves of democratization 1rst wave: 1870-1910 2nd wave: interwar period followed by a reverse wave post world war II: re-democratization of Italy West Germany (Federal Republic of Germany) Japan 3rd wave -- from 1970… to present?

1970s Greece (military dictatorship, 1967-74) Portugal 1974 end of Salazar-Caeteno regime (from 1931) Spain (1975) end of Franco regime (from 1939)

1980s collapse of military regimes in Latin America Argentina, 1982 Brazil (opening 1977-85) Uruguay Paraguay Bolivia...

1989and beyond fall of Berlin Wall collapse of ‘satellite’ Communist regimes in east central Europe break-up of the Soviet Union Chile Republic of South Africa South Korea Taiwan

Transitional vs. consolidated democracies Transitional democracies -- newly launched or re-democratized liberal democracies Consolidated democracies: no significant challenges to regime “the only game in town” Some questions: How do we know a regime is consolidated? How do regimes become consolidated?

Categories, scales, classificatory schemes: levels of measurement classifying democracies liberal democracy v. non-democracy.. More democratic v. less democratic more stable v. less stable degrees of consolidation: more consolidated v. less consolidated

Levels of measurement nominal (discrete categories) ordinal (a scale: positions on it are either: more or less, higher or lower interval (a scale on which positions reflect measured differencesb

What do we expect to find in a democracy? Inclusiveness all or almost all of the adult population entitled to vote Elections free and fair elections -- elections with choice competition

Countries and where they fit:

Dimensions of liberal democracy:

Mexico before 2000: constitution some restrictions on political rights some competition elections, but not entirely free and fair elections dominance of the PRI (Party of Institutional Revolution)

Nigeria: First Republic: parliamentary system, 1961-1966 civil war blocking Biafran secession, 1966-1969 military rule: General Gowan, 1969-1975General Obasanjo, 1975/6-1979 Second Republic: presidential system from 1979-1983 Military governments from 1983-1993 General Babangida General Abacha Redemocratization in 1993 under Obasanjo