Meeting with District of Elkford Staff Climate Change Adaptation Portion

Objectives Discuss findings to date - modeling results from the Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium and additional research conducted Identify staff climate change adaptation priorities Gather more information from staff for vulnerability assessment

Agenda Jargon (5 min) Review relevant PCIC modeling results and plans for process (10 min) Review potential impact pathways for Elkford (30 min) Break (10 min) Review potential priority vulnerability issues for Elkford (20 min) Next steps (15 min)

Some brief explanations… Climate Change – dominant mechanisms attributed all result from human activity: –increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases –global changes to land surface, such as deforestation –increasing atmospheric concentrations of aerosols Climate Change Adaptation - prepare for and respond to the potential impacts of climate change Climate Change Mitigation – reduce the contribution of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere

Adaptive Capacity - the ability to accommodate changes in climate with minimum disruption or minimum additional cost. –What is the adaptive capacity of Elkford? Sensitivity - the degree of impact by changes in climate conditions (e.g., temperature and precipitation) or specific climate change impacts. –How sensitive is Elkford to climate changes and impacts? Vulnerability - susceptibility to be harmed by climate change impacts. –How vulnerable is Elkford? –Vulnerability = exposure x sensitivity x adaptive capacity Elkford Vulnerability Assessment

PCIC Modeling Elkford 1900 to 2004, Elkford temperature +1.0°C to +3.0°C Annual average temperature predicted +2°C to +3°C by 2050s Annual winter precipitation predicted +20% to +25% ( ) Summer precipitation predicted -10% to - 5% (2041 and 2070) Warmer climate, more precipitation in the winter and spring, less precipitation in the summer

Elkford Plans for Adaptation 1.Obtain regional modeling 2.Investigate climate change impacts relevant for Elkford 3.Identify staff/community adaptation priorities Assessment of hazard management strategies 4.Develop risk scenarios (ie impact pathways) 5.Assess the frequency and vulnerability of each scenario Ask you and the community if we have it right? 6.Make recommendations around action Ask you and the community if we have it right?

Climate Change Impacts & Opportunities Adapted from Pearce- Climate communications ideas... Seasonal Climate Changes Temperature Precipitation Extreme weather events Environmental Impacts Fire Regimes Flooding Water quality & Availability Snow line and snow pack Pests Biodiversity Slope stability Community Impacts/Opportunities Quality of Life/ Community well-being - Infrastructure (stormwater, water, sewage, buildings) - Safety - Public health - Recreation Economic Sectors - Forestry - Agriculture - Tourism - Mining - Retail/services

. Wildfires Elkford Impacts and Opportunities More Fuel in Forest Drier Forest Increase in suitable range of Mountain Pine Beetle Warmer annual average Temperature s Increased atmospheric moisture and lightning strikes Economic/ social disruption Increased risk of property damage Increased hunting opportunities Road Closures/ evacuation s Increased Harvest/ salvage opportunities Opportunities for Berry and Mushroom harvest Wildlife composition change/ impact Decreased Visual quality Increased backcountry fire risk for tourism and recreation Increase in Burned Landscapes Health and safety hazard to public Increased Frequency & Severity of Wildfires Increased risk of erosion and flooding

Increased glacial melt Earlier spring snow melt Liability risk Insurance cost Increased risk of property damage Economic disruption Public health and safety Increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events Financial loss for District Increased winter precipitation Increased cost of stormwater infrastructure Potential increase in height of floodplain Increased erosion Increased runoff from forest impacted by fire and pests Increased risk of flooding & landslides Flooding & Landslides Elkford Impacts and Opportunities

Elkford Potential Water Availability Impacts Increased competition over water resources Economic/ tourism disruption Changes to groundwater recharge and discharge rates Impacts on Fish Populations Greater cost for water Impact on water table depth Impacts on local farming Shift in timing and amount of precipitation Increase in average temperature Reduced Water Availability More prolonged droughts Glacial retreat/ declining snowpack Less rain in summer Earlier snow melt Longer periods of low stream flow Water Availability Elkford Impacts and Opportunities

Elkford Potential Snow Impacts & Opportunities Snow Elkford Impacts and Opportunities Earlier spring snow melt Less snow = less shovelling Reduced snow removal costs Prolonged summer tourism and recreation Reduced winter recreation options Less favourable back country conditions Reduction in number of skiable days Increase in average temperature Increased winter rain events Reduced winter tourism & recreation opportunities Glacial retreat Reduced Winter Snowpack Shift in timing and amount of precipitation

Pests- Mountain Pine Beetle Changes in water runoff and peak flows Change in forest hydrological cycle Higher water table Increased risk of flooding Increased allowable harvest during peak epidemic Economic vitality with changes in harvesting rates Changes in resource supply and forest production Shortage of wood supply in future ( years) Increased pine mortality Increased fuel for fire in forest Abundance of mature pine in BC Increase in average temperature Favourable summer temperature for pine beetle reproduction Favourable winter temperature for pine beetle survival Threat of Mountain Pine Beetle Epidemic Increased growing degree days Pests- Mountain Pine Beetle Elkford Impacts and Opportunities

Ecosystem shift Highly mobile species migrate Range and abundance shifts in species Loss of genetic diversity Less mobile species decline Genetic pressure on species with high adaptability Increase in average temperature Changes in climate suitability for plant species Increased vulnerability to disease/ invasive species Human Disturbance s Human barriers Loss of alpine ecosystems Increased grasslands Loss of Montane Spruce and Engleman Spruce habitat Most species shift upwards and northwards Decline of alpine populations or species Economic impacts Changes in forestry practices Job losses or adjustments in forestry industry Ecosystem Shift Elkford Impacts and Opportunities

Ecological ZoneBy yearElevation Shift (meters) Northward Shift (kilometers) Area Change (%) Engelmann Spruce-Subalpine Fir m+ 154 km6 % m+ 224 km3 % Montane Spruce m+ 149 km- 19% m+ 302 km- 40% Alpine Tundra m- 5 km- 60% m- 67 km- 85% Habitat and Forest Impacts Science

Species Changes to competitive interactions Alterations to life-cycle mechanisms Changes to predator-prey relationships New hunting opportunities Hunting season change Vulnerability to migration barriers Human disturbance Isolated ecosystems (i.e.alpine) Lack of corridors Increase in average temperature s Changes to species lifecycle and migration patterns Changes to structure and function of ecosystems Vulnerability to changes in food availability Unpredictabl e migration patterns Tourism & Recreation impacts Species Change Elkford Impacts and Opportunities

Translating Potential Impacts into Action To get everyone thinking about how these potential impacts relate to Elkford’s adaptive capacity, and vulnerability…. Where has Elkford already acted? Where could Elkford easily act? What has high exposure in Elkford? Where is there potential for high impact? What are your main concerns on these topics? Have we missed a topic?

Vanderhoof Wildfire Example VDH Impacts/Opportunities  Community Liveability Health hazards (esp for elderly) Evacuations possible More hunting opportunities  Community Serviceability Highway closure stops access to supplies Infrastructure at risk  Environmental High value areas at risk  Economic  Logging shutdowns and tourism visits decline during high fire hazard  Reduced timber supply Smoke alerts Emergency preparedness District fire department and provincial fire services collaborate Fire proof if possible (buffers, reduce fuels ) Anticipate and plan for shutdowns Local tourism and logging businesses involved in fire suppression efforts Salvage as much as possible and factor wildfire losses into timber supply assessments Reduce fire hazard (Fire Smart) More subsistence hunting/Guide outfitting/viewing opportunity? Environmental Impacts Increased Wildfires Strategic fire suppression Additional resources

Community Priorities?? Incomplete results

Elkford’s Priority CCA Issues? Wildfire –Risk assessment already complete! Integrate identified hazard areas into OCP –Remediation of wildfire management Plant species that are more beetle/fire resistant Integrate policies into OCP –Integrate temperature and precipitation modeling into wildfire strategy to update Determine potential and value –Emergency preparedness?? Smoke alerts, evacuations

Elkford’s Priority CCA Issues? Floodplains –Update floodplain mapping using PCIC modeling –Identify best practices and integrate appropriate policies in OCP Designated flood areas during storm events Make sure that bridges etc. do not constrict the stream channel Wide of a buffer zone on both sides of the Elk River as possible Limit the District’s liability!!

Elkford’s Priority CCA Issues? Water Availability –Questions for Elkford - Glaciers and snowpack feeding the water table? How long until glaciers are gone? –BC Hydro glacier study Leverage this work to better understand Elkford’s future water availability –Groundwater mapping Understand groundwater networks and the recharge/discharge rates What work has industry already done? Will do? (ie coal and coal-bed methane) Understand how aquifers relate to river and glaciers

Elkford’s Priority CCA Issues? Pests and Ecosystems –Work with land use managers and planners to ensure that appropriate migration corridors are maintained for plants and animals shifts northward - Map current migration routes, calving grounds, etc., as well as current ecosystem habitats - Determine high priority locations for corridors and areas for special protection

Have we missed anything? Your input!!!!

Next Steps - Risk Estimation RISK = ( FREQUENCY, CLIMATE HAZARD, VULNERABILITY ) VULNERABILITY = ( EXPOSURE, SENSITIVITY, ADAPTIVE CAPACITY ) Mitigation aims to reduce the climate change hazard or effect Adaptation aims to reduce vulnerability to these effects Reduce exposure to climate effect (e.g. restrict development in flood plains) Reduce sensitivity to climate effect (e.g. make buildings more resilient, flood defenses) Enhance adaptive capacity (e.g. awareness of flood risks, affordability of housing in less exposed areas) Probability of occurring

Next Steps Risk Estimation –Identify frequencies and vulnerability of risk scenarios (pathways) –Frequency = probability of occurring? has it occurred in the past? –Vulnerability (based on vulnerability) = minor effects or serious effects? Economic, ecological, social, cultural, legal?

Vulnerability Extremely Sericus Effects Major Effects Moderate Effects Minor Effects Very minor efffect Very unlikely to happen Occurs occasionaly Moderately frequentOccurs Often Virtually certain to occur Frequency Negligible- No action required Low- Some actions (public education) may be desirable Moderate- Some controls required to reduce risk to lower levels High - High priority control measures required Extreme - Immediate controls required

Elkford Climate Change Adaptation Next Steps How? –Historical records, climate trends, PCIC data, –Insurance company records (fire/ flood) –Community perceptions Next community event? –AC input –Staff and council ideas Qualitative assessment based on the best information we have available Key outcome- ‘priority’ planning areas for Elkford –What are the high frequency, high vulnerability impacts and areas? –Impact mitigation strategies for priority areas?

Next Steps –Should anyone else be involved? –Please contact us with any ideas or information you have along the way? –Learning Network Study Tour – Risk estimation exercise in Elkford on flooding and water availability?

Questions, comments? Karen Gorecki, , Megan Walsh,

Scenario of projected shifts in ecosystems in Glacier National Park (source: Hall and Fagre, 2003; Bioscience, 53, )