Vulnerability & Risk Hazard Mapping

Risk assesment

What is a Risk Assessment ? A methodology to determine the nature and extent of risk by analyzing potential hazards and evaluating existing conditions of vulnerability that together could potentially harm exposed people, property, services, livelihood and the environment on which they depend Hazard Exposure Vulnerability Impact

Hazard Risk Terminology Likelihood and intensity of a potentially destructive phenomenon (earthquake, floods) Determined by nature exposure Location and value of things that are important to us(lives , property) Determined by people vulnerability Likelihood that assets will be damaged or destroyed when exposed to a hazard event risk Likelihood that things we value will be harmed

Considerations for Hazard Risk Assessment What is intended purpose of the hazard/risk assessment? e.g building codes, land use planning, disaster management training etc. Who are the end users? e.g engineers, urban planners, disaster managers, local community, financial planners etc. What data sets exist to support the assessment? e.g land use, building types, historical event catalogue etc.

Styles of Hazard Risk Analysis Increasing Efforts & Complexity Hazard/Risk Index Pros: fast, low data requirements, output easy to understand Cons: low resolution, subjective Historical Scenario Pros: based on event –specific data, good for frequent hazards Cons: misses extreme events, potential impacts of climate change Probabilistic Pros: accounts for both frequent/low-impact and rare/extreme events Cons: high data/expertise requirements, need to ensure outputs can be understood

Vulnerability Vulnerability: The inability to anticipate, cope with and recover from a natural disaster, such as a flood or storm : Vulnerability is dependent on The exposure to the hazard The sensitivity to the impact The resilience to recover from the consequences No simple, universally accepted method to assess vulnerability (yet)

Example: income as indicator for vulnerability

Vulnerability formula In which: V = Vulnerability E = Exposure S = Sensitivity C = Coping Capacity (or Resilience)

Approach Towards Risk Assessment & Management Multi Hazard Risk Assessment Frame Work Risk = f (Hazard, vulnerability ) Risk = f (Hazard, vulnerability, capacity ) Risk = f (Hazard, vulnerability, preparedness )

3D- Approach

Hazard Mapping Case study

Vulnerability & Hazard Warning Mapping Tool Several GIS layers are being prepared in a buffer of 20km across the Indus River from Chashma down to delta where it merges with sea. In addition to this the Nowshera and right bank of Indus river in Sindh is also being covered GIS Layers: Settlements Roads Embankments Railway line Bridges Agriculture land

Draft Web Portal Pre-Disaster (Preparedness) Interactive GIS tool Risk mapping at district level Vulnerability assessment Evacuation plans Safest route identification Post Disaster (Response) Damage assessment Damage Need Analysis Information dissemination

Draft Web Portal

Draft Web Portal

Flood hazard mapping Flood Forecast Hazard Mapping Downloads Flood Early Warning Hazard Mapping Visualize Layers Download Maps Downloads Maps Other products Use rri simulated output for hazard mapping and perform gis analysis for damage assessment

Mapping – Download Maps Flood Forecast Flood Early Warning Hazard Mapping Visualize Layers Download Maps Downloads Maps Other products Use rri simulated output for hazard mapping and perform gis analysis for damage assessment

Download – Maps Flood Forecast Hazard Mapping Downloads Flood Early Warning Hazard Mapping Visualize Layers Download Maps Downloads Maps Other products