Jonathan Voss November 6, 2014 Lake Research Partners Washington, DC | Berkeley, CA | New York, NY LakeResearch.com 2014 Midterm Elections

New Balance of Power (some results still pending) 2 Senate 43 Democrats (-7) 52 Republicans (+7) 2 TBD (LA runoff and AK) House 179 Democrats (-13) 243 Republicans (+13) 13 TBD Gubernatorial 18 Democrats (-3) 31 Republicans (+2) 1 Independent (+1*) ARCO IANC MTSD WV TBD: AK, LA ARPA IL MA MD TBD: VT, AK*

Who Votes Matters

Seniors have voted Republican the past three elections. 4 Democratic Advantage in House Elections among all voters (Election Results*, Orange), voters 65+ (Exit Polls, Blue) CNN/ABC House Exit Polls (*2014 Results Not Final)

Democratic performance among seniors had been trending negatively, but has marginally improved since Difference in Margin of Democratic House Advantage between seniors and all voters (Below 0 means Dems performed worse among seniors, compared to all voters) CNN/ABC House Exit Polls Voted D at Higher rate than all voters Voted D at Lower rate than all voters

Seniors comprise a larger share of the electorate in mid-term elections. 6 Difference in Margin of Democratic House Advantage between seniors and all voters, Senior Voter Share CNN/ABC House Exit Polls

Gender Gap Across Key Senate Races Key Senate Races MenWomenGAP % Vote R% Vote D D – R Margin % Vote R% Vote D D – R Margin Differnce between Difference Alaska Arkansas Colorado Georgia Iowa Kansas5639 (Ind) Kentucky Louisiana NC NH National

% of electorate % Dem Dem Net % of electorate % Dem Dem Net % of electorate % Dem Dem Net Hispanics African Americans Asians Other Races White men White women ~48~45~46 8 CNN Exit Polls Democratic Vote Share By Race in Midterms

9 Source: CNN 2014 National Exit Poll *Exit poll data for unmarried women unavailable for 2010 Youth (18-29) Unmarried Women Hispanics +26 African Americans Data Not Available Democrats continue to perform well among the “Rising American Electorate

10 Source: CNN 2014 National Exit Poll *Exit poll data for unmarried women unavailable for 2010 Youth (18-29) Unmarried WomenHispanics African Americans However they represent a smaller share of the electorate compared to 2012.

Mood of the Electorate

By more than 2:1 voters believe the country is going in the wrong direction, driving up support for Republicans. 12 Do you think the Country is Going in the Right Direction or the Wrong Direction CNN Exit Polls Right Direction Wrong Direction

This election was still very economically focused. 13 What is the most important issue facing the country today? CNN Exit Polls % Rep% Dem

Americans remain divided on healthcare along partisan lines. 14 View of 2010 Federal Health Care Law CNN Exit Polls Did not go far enough Was about right Went to far Too FarAbout RightNot Far Enough

Among key states opposition to the ACA was strongest in Louisiana, and weakest in New Hampshire. 15 View of 2010 Federal Health Care Law CNN Exit Polls AlaskaColoradoGeorgiaIowa KentuckyLouisianaNew HampshireNorth Carolina

Perceptions of health care closely correlate to the vote in key Senate states. 16 View of 2010 Federal Health Care Law CNN Exit Polls AlaskaColoradoGeorgiaIowa KentuckyLouisianaNew HampshireNorth Carolina % R% D Too Far About Right Not Enough % R% D % R% D % R% D % R% D Too Far About Right Not Enough % R% D 83*14 15*84 28*71 % R% D % R% D *Cassidy and Maness CMB

Changes from 2012

The President’s job approval has been net negative for most of the first two years of his 2 nd term. 18 Clinton 1994 Approve43 Disapprove49 Margin-6 Bush 2006 Approve43 Disapprove57 Margin-14 Obama 2010 Approve44 Disapprove55 Margin Exit Poll Poll Tracking

In 2012, voters with a middling outlook on the economy favored Obama. 19 Do you think the condition of the nation’s economy is: Source: ABC News Exit Polls: Excellent/Good Not so good Poor

This year, they voted Republican. 20 Do you think the condition of the nation’s economy is: CNN Exit Polls Excellent/Good Not so good Poor

In 2012, voters who thought they are better off or about the same financially as they were four years ago broke for Obama. 21 Compared to Four Years Ago, Is Your Family’s Financial Situation: Source: ABC News Exit Polls: Better Today Worse Today About the Same

Democrats failed to make as clear an economic distinction as they did in 2012, and Republicans made gains. 22 Compared to Four Years Ago, Is Your Family’s Financial Situation: CNN Exit Polls Better Today Worse Today About the Same

In 2012 Perceptions on fairness correlated strongly with the vote. 23 Do You Think the U.S. Economic System Generally: Source: ABC News Exit Polls: Favors the WealthyIs Fair to Most Americans +45

Despite a 12% increase in the perception our system favors the wealthy, the Democratic populist advantage eroded. 24 Do You Think the U.S. Economic System Generally: CNN Exit Polls Favors the WealthyIs Fair to Most Americans +29

2016 Senate Races 25

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