ENVIRONMENTAL FACTOR EFFECTS OF SIBERIAN NORTHERN TERRITORIES OF POPULATION HEALTH Efimova N.V., Nikiforova V.A., Pertseva T.G. Russia

The Map of Region investigation (Brarsk) Bratsk reservoir Central district Padun Industril zone

Meteorological Conditions of Bratsk

Index of Climate Discomfort

Distribution of Air Pollution on Bratsk׳s Territory Integral index (P)

Air Pollution (parts of Maximum Allowable Concentration (MAC) 2005 year 1990

Eco-hygienic Estimation of Environmental Situations in Bratsk years Estimation of medico- environmen tal situations rangEnvironmental pollution (integral index, u.c) Characteristics of Health crisis27,2 Air 62 Water 85 Soil 46 Mortality 11 ‰ Infant mortality 5.1 ‰ Relative risk morbidity middle hazard 6,8Air 44 Water 36 Soil 45 Mortality 16 ‰ Infant mortality 7,2 ‰ Relative risk morbidity 1,2

The comparative analysis of the described data sets shows significant characteristics of interactions and correlation between the air pollution, meteorological parameters and respiratory diseases in the Bratsk

Eco-hygienic Estimation of Environmental Impact on Formation of Morbidity All factors Air pollution with meteorological conditions Chemical pollution Medical resourses Social-economic factors factors %

Correlation ( Rs ) between Air Pollution and Incidence of Respiratory Organs (on weekly data) Methyl mercaptane Methyl mercaptane H2SH2S H2SH2S NO 2 SO 2 Acute respiratory disease Chronic bronchitis Acute respiratory disease Chronic bronchitis Acute respiratory disease Acute respiratory disease 0.8

1 –average meteorological parameters, pollution < MAC 2 – average meteorological parameters pollution P = 43, low wind velocity 3 – average meteorological parameters, pollution < MAC, 80% humidity 4 – average meteorological parametersто же index of sulfure pollution P= 18 5 – average meteorological parametersто же index of fluoride pollution P= 6 6 – negative meteorological conditions for dispersion, winter (t= - 22˚С), P= Atributive risk, % The Forecast of Children׳s Respiratory Incidence Respiratory Incidence

A mathematical model of a medical- ecological situation allowing a forecast the risk development based on results of a statistical and logical analyses A mathematical model of a medical- ecological situation allowing a forecast the risk development based on results of a statistical and logical analyses The prognosis was verified based on the findings of 2005 with a precision of 85% The prognosis was verified based on the findings of 2005 with a precision of 85%

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