Macroeconomic Aspects of Intergenerational Transfers Brazil Cassio M. Turra Bernardo L. Queiroz Elisenda Renteria-Perez

Summary of 2005 activities  Two presentations (international seminars)  Three papers  Extended abstract (PAA 2006)  Section (ABEP 2006)  Research assistant: Elisenda Renteria-Perez (who is doing great!)  Two fronts: 1) prepare historical series of public transfers (SS); 2) estimate consumption age profiles

Objectives  Discuss estimates of private consumption: 1987 (POF), 1996 (PPV), 2002 (POF)  Other Consumption: NTA Equivalence Scale vs. Engel  Health and Education: Regressions vs. Self-reported Data  Impact for future analyses

Consumption age profiles: Data Available in Brazil PPV  Based on LSMS  Only for 1996  70% of the Brazilian population  Individual consumption on education and health POF and ENDEF  Provide weights to consumer price index  1974, 1987, 1995, 2002 (maybe 1 for the 1960s)  Household consumption only

1) Per Capita Other Consumption – PPV 1996

2) Per Capita Other Consumption – NTA Scale

3) Per Capita Consumption of Health – PPV 1996

4) Per Capita Consumption of Health – Regression

5) Per Capita Consumption of Education – PPV 1996

6) Per Capita Consumption of Education–Regression

Good News! Per Capita Total Consumption – PPV 1996

But maybe not so good… Per Capita Total Consumption – PPV 1996

Does it matter or not? Test: Average Age at Consumption Method Quasi-Stable Young Brazil 1970 Transitional Population Brazil 2010 Quasi-Stable Old Brazil 2050 NTA Scale + Regressions Engel + Regressions Difference

Per Capita Total Consumption: 1987, 1996, 2002

Discussion  Health: How to obtain better estimates?  Other Consumption: Should we apply the same NTA scale every year?  Are we artificially shaping the age profiles?

Work Plan for 2006  Re-estimate NTA for 1996 using Turra’s thesis and methods recently developed by Ron & Andy et al.  Write a paper using the 1996 estimates  Estimate historical series of public transfers: (education and health)  Write PAA paper for presentation at ABEP 2006  Keep providing training to Elisenda  Organize weekly meetings at Cedeplar, Brazil

Win our Sixth World Cup!