TOWARDS THE APPRAISAL OF THE CUMULATIVE AND DYNAMIC IMPACT OF DISASTERS ADVISORY GROUP - FIRST MEETING INFORMATION AND INDICATORS PROGRAM FOR DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT PROJECT Washington, D.C., January 13, 2004 Inter American Bank Building, Washington D.C.

Information and indicators for risk management project ECLAC - IDB BACKGROUND INFORMATION  The objectives of the project remain to promote better risk management and disaster mitigation by having a better comprehension on the impact of past disasters, their cumulative effect, and national ex ante and ex post situations in respect of risk bearing.  The work programme of the project and the formation of an advisory group Its terms of reference: prepare substantive contributions, provide insight and enrich methodological proposals, sounding board for the projects’ proposals and conclusions Its terms of reference: prepare substantive contributions, provide insight and enrich methodological proposals, sounding board for the projects’ proposals and conclusions ECLAC as responsible for preparing methodological proposals and propose conceptual framework ECLAC as responsible for preparing methodological proposals and propose conceptual framework  Delay in holding this meeting due to circumstances not related to the project and interest in advancing now rapidly to have methodological frameworks for national studies by April, start national studies in May and have case studies before February 2005  Information was provided to potential members of the project since August 2003 and preliminary documents were sent in September.  Invitation was sent in December.  Welcome open discussion and promote brainstorming  Encourage presentation of advisor’s experience and specific knowledge from their work experience, field of work and practical application  Discussion is expected on conceptual framework and terms of reference for national studies (sent in September)

Information and indicators for risk management project ECLAC - IDB PURPOSE OF THE MEETING AND THE ADVISORY GROUP’S CONTRIBUTION  A necessary step in the process of preparing the project’s basic methodological documents Terms of reference for national studies and conceptual frameworks Terms of reference for national studies and conceptual frameworks Methodology for analysis of risk bearing infrastructure (both ex ante and ex post) Methodology for analysis of risk bearing infrastructure (both ex ante and ex post) ECLAC’s methodology adaptation for cumulative / dynamic impact over time ECLAC’s methodology adaptation for cumulative / dynamic impact over time Rapid assessment of financial / resources needs ex post (beyond what the new ECLAC handbook provides and in accordance with IDB’s concerns Rapid assessment of financial / resources needs ex post (beyond what the new ECLAC handbook provides and in accordance with IDB’s concerns We consider the ECLAC current methodology as appropriate for rapid needs assessment in the face of reconstruction, indicating specifically what are the ex ante (baseline, pre disaster trends) information needs and ex post (allowing for the consideration of alternative scenarios on the basis of policy, resource availability, risk bearing infrastructure and needs beyond the country’s capability

Information and indicators for risk management project ECLAC - IDB OTHER ELEMENTS FOR DISCUSSION  The purpose and objective of rapid needs assessment methodologies that go beyond the emergency Existing ones (Asian experience (ADPC’s DANA), Mexico’s CENAPRED and FONDEN’s different assessments), and ECLAC’s as a rapid assessment tool  Estimating ex post financial needs (Paul Freeman's work for IADB and other modeling and economic projection tools)

Information and indicators for risk management project ECLAC - IDB WHAT IS EXPECTED OF THE MEETING  An open discussion of the issues (brainstorming on the issues of the economic and development impact of disasters and analytical tools to approach it, disasters and crisis management, disasters and external chocks)  Elements to include in the analytical frameworks to be used by the project (revised versions of the conceptual note, how to approach risk bearing infrastructure and tools ex ante and ex post, the need for a dynamic approach and exisrting tools such as econometric analysis, partial and general equilibrium models, etc.). Main concerns relate to Strategic evaluation towards needs assessment and disaster reduction and mitigation Strategic evaluation towards needs assessment and disaster reduction and mitigation The cumulative effect of disaster (i.e. never returning to pre- existing conditions: equilibrium dynamics and resilience) The cumulative effect of disaster (i.e. never returning to pre- existing conditions: equilibrium dynamics and resilience)  Agreed criteria to be applied, mutatis mutandi, in the case studies  Need for consultancies to complete methodoligical proposals

Information and indicators for risk management project ECLAC - IDB WHAT WE HAVE AND WHAT WE DON’T  What we have Conceptual note Conceptual note Expanded and revised 2003 ECLAC Handbook Expanded and revised 2003 ECLAC Handbook DANA and CENAPRED’s approach to rapid assessment of needs DANA and CENAPRED’s approach to rapid assessment of needs A preliminary approach to dynamic analysis A preliminary approach to dynamic analysis  What we don’t have (and want to have before starting the national case studies) A validated conceptual framework A validated conceptual framework Specific consideration of ex ante and ex post methodological approaches Specific consideration of ex ante and ex post methodological approaches A methodology to evaluate risk bearing infrastructure (systems, tools, resources) A methodology to evaluate risk bearing infrastructure (systems, tools, resources) A rapid assesment needs methodology beyond emergency A rapid assesment needs methodology beyond emergency A dynamic model to analyze cumulative impact A dynamic model to analyze cumulative impact Who we are: Ricardo Zapata, ECLAC’s focal point for disaster evaluation Roberto Jovel, former ECLAC director of operations and programming and “father” of ECLAC’S methodology René Hernández, ECLAC economist, recently received doctorate of Economics (Warwick), in charge of developing a dynamic model for the project)

Information and indicators for risk management project ECLAC - IDB INTRODUCTION OF ALL PRESENT