Eve Gruntfest Norman, OK September 17,2008 Advanced WAS * IS Workshop Beyond Storm -Based Warnings: A collaboration between stakeholders, the National Weather Service & the Hazardous Weather Testbed W R A P U P

Motivation  Hazardous Weather Testbed developing next generation forecasting tools – better ways to communicate what we know in more sophisticated ways  WAS way – developing with little interaction with folks outside the lab  IS way – bring in forecasters, emergency managers, private sector to assure more socially relevant new tools

Participants Forecasters – representing a variety of geographic regions Emergency managers – local & federal agencies represented Private sector representatives moving in tandem with government partners Researchers – geographers, anthropologist with relevant expertise Many National Weather Center folks – from labs, grad students Others who want to see how this experiment develops - National Science Foundation, CASA (Collaborative Adaptive Sensing of the Atmosphere), NOAA research folks Interesting that so many National Weather Center folks found new info learning about, visiting in the Hazardous Weather Testbed Cross section of users - WAS * ISers & non WAS * ISers

GREAT payoff for small NOAA investment – many participants came on their own funds, and we stretched our small budget creatively  W O W -- what a braintrust  YOU are all so busy & worked so hard for 2.5 days  Very thoughtful c r I s p y presentations  Considerate of the variety of backgrounds  Hazardous Weather Testbed folks were very brave to engage in this experiment Weaving Social Science into Climate and Weather Research and Practice 5

Getting into each others heads TWO way street (many intersections)  When do you begin to warn?  What about impacts incorporated into warnings – life for weeks without power  We agree we need new verification measures – Karen reminds us how culture bound we are by thinking we HAVE to have them  What about probabilistic verification?  What about longer/shorter lead times?  Weather is only one factor people take into account when they make decisions Weaving Social Science into Climate and Weather Research and Practice 6

Emergency managers clued us in on the many elements of their jobs  Rebecca Jennings at the federal level  Christina Muller at the county level  (can’t be tokens – need to be part of all phases of projects)  Imagining the world without the constraints of the term jail of : probability of detection, watches, warning, false alarm? Weaving Social Science into Climate and Weather Research and Practice 7

Forecasting the weather is a difficult job  Is the challenge of getting effective messages any more/less difficult?  What resources are necessary  What are the first steps?  Not taking advantage of existing research findings  Challenge of everyday weather vs. severe weather Weaving Social Science into Climate and Weather Research and Practice 8

Workshop objectives 1. Introduce new technologies & directions to a diverse spectrum of potential future collaborators. 2. Define & address the broad spectrum of end- user needs from the super-user to diverse segments of the general public - focus on emergency managers, hospitals & individuals with higher vulnerability as well as private industry 3. Clarify & suggest new ways to communicate uncertainty & storm information - focus on graphic representations of storm timelines & uncertainty and communication through new & emerging technologies

4.Define new measures of success to assess service. Change concepts of storm verification including close calls & false alarms 5.Provide suggestions for the evolution of the Experimental Warning Program design for spring experiments with stakeholders goals 6.Develop ideas for new ways to change the culture within all levels of the National Weather Service to facilitate operational implementation 7.Create visibility & consider possible future funding opportunities for Hazardous Weather Testbed activities & stakeholder interactions that help with move The National Weather Service from WAS to IS Workshop objectives

Ground rules  Advanced WAS * IS is not like any other workshop  We did pretty well on the acronyms  GREAT Meeting & mingling to foster new collaborations & projects  Minimized glazed eyeballs  We heard from almost everyone

Next steps building on our bold experiment ??

Possible next steps --Possibilities for WAS * IS activities  WAS * ISers develop a course to build capacity in social science  Hold the course for social scientists  WAS *IS workshop for TEXAS, Southern region National Weather Service?  Other central regional NOAA activities?

R E S O U R C E S  Why not a Cooperative NOAA Institute on society & weather (Dave Schultz named it Center for Society and Weather C-SAW)?  Or  INSISTING that there are social scientists (plural) working at the existing Cooperative Institutes Weaving Social Science into Climate and Weather Research and Practice 14

WAS * IS means changing from WAS to IS WAS physical scientist goes to WAS * IS workshop Moving from WAS to IS…is not an instant connection with human behavior modellers or eyeball monitors. BEWARE the simple techno –fix!

Taking the HAZARDOUS Weather TESTBED BUS on TOUR  Lots of creative suggestions Weaving Social Science into Climate and Weather Research and Practice 16 Hazardous Weather Testbed Bus

National Weather Service Private forecasters Local Communities The move from WAS to IS occurs when stovepipes are not the model - Bring social science into programs & research efforts in sustainable ways Meteorologists, Hydrologists Universities Research Centers Hazardous Weather Testbed Broadcast meteorologists

WAS*IS weather & society * integrated studies CULTURE CHANGE Sponsored by the NCAR Societal Impacts Program Thanks to Kristin Kuhlman and Kelly Lynn for handling the hundreds of details that let us enjoy a seamless workshop

@ The National Weather The National Weather Center SSWIM Team University of Oklahoma LOOKING FORWARD TO MORE OPPORTUNITIES TO WORK TOGETHER WITH WAS * ISERS!