18/11/2015 Presentation name / Author1 Assessments – science-based decision support Mikko Pohjola, THL

18/11/2015 Presentation name / Author2 Contents What is assessment? Example: what is the scope of TAPAS? From practical need to assessment problem Finding solutions to the problem

18/11/2015 Presentation name / Author3 Assessment Risk assessment, health impact assessment, environmental impact assessment, societal impact assessment, integrated assessment, environmental modeling, cost-effectiveness analysis, life-cycle analysis… Statements (or the process of making statements) of judged cost, value, worth, significance of… (Merriam-Webster online dictionary)

18/11/2015 Presentation name / Author4 Assessment Science-based decision support –Driven by a practical need –Constrained by the scientific quest for truth Also facilitated with the means of science Decisions about…? –preferred actions intended to lead to desired consequences Decisions by…? –Societal decision makers (policy) –Industry and commerce (e.g. investments) –Individuals (e.g. as residents, passengers)

18/11/2015 Presentation name / Author5 Assessment

18/11/2015 Presentation name / Author6 Assessment It is a business of creating understanding about reality in relation to a specific need –Collection, synthesis, interpretation and organization of information –Communication of information !!! –Use of information !!! Assessment can refer to –The process of making an assessment –The product produced by that process The information product used to support decision making

18/11/2015 Presentation name / Author7 Assessment

18/11/2015 Presentation name / Author8 Assessment Helping a decision maker understand the problem (s)he has at hand… …and the relevant factors related to it… …as well as the basis for the understanding… …so that (s)he can come up with a good decision… …upon taking action based on that understanding.

Traditional science-policy interface

18/11/2015 Presentation name / Author10 Open assessment interface

18/11/2015 Presentation name / Author11 Example: TAPAS Transportation, Air pollution and Physical ActivitieS –An integrated health risk assessment programme of climate change and urban policies Research project with an assessment and modeling approach Partners from 7 different institutes from 4 different countries (cities) –Barcelona, Paris, Basel, Copenhagen

18/11/2015 Presentation name / Author12 Example: TAPAS Transportation, air pollution and physical activities; an integrated health risk assessment programme of climate change and urban policies Keywords: –Transport –Air pollution –Physical activities –Health risks –Climate change –Urban policies There must be some good reasons for making such an assessment. Can you identify them?

18/11/2015 Presentation name / Author13 Example: TAPAS Transportation, air pollution and physical activities; an integrated health risk assessment programme of climate change and urban policies What are the issues addressed? What are the needs regarding those issues? Are the issues controversial? Are the issues inter-related?

18/11/2015 Presentation name / Author14 Example: TAPAS Transportation, air pollution and physical activities; an integrated health risk assessment programme of climate change and urban policies Whose needs and concerns? Who are interested in or affected by them? Can someone be held responsible for the way things are? Should something be done? Is someone responsible for taking action? What actions can be taken? Who can take action?

18/11/2015 Presentation name / Author15 Example: TAPAS Transportation, air pollution and physical activities; an integrated health risk assessment programme of climate change and urban policies What benefits are sought for by taking action? Do possible actions involve risks? Who is affected by possible actions? What needs to be known in order to take action? What needs to be known in order to know what action to take? Whose understanding about the issues, needs and actions is most crucial to achieve the benefits?

18/11/2015 Presentation name / Author16 Example: TAPAS Transportation, air pollution and physical activities; an integrated health risk assessment programme of climate change and urban policies The project plan says: –Urban policies (built environment, interventions) Addressing climate change (prevention, adaptation?) Promoting other health related outcomes –Active transportation (walking, cycling + public) –Risks: air pollution, UV, crime, accidents –Benefits: physical activity, social interaction, mental health –Effects summarized as DALYs

18/11/2015 Presentation name / Author17 Example: TAPAS Transportation, air pollution and physical activities; an integrated health risk assessment programme of climate change and urban policies Assessment –active transport policy decisions –Indicators: GHG emissions ambient air quality mental health / quality of life attributable chronic/acute disese net health (DALYs)

18/11/2015 Presentation name / Author18 Example: TAPAS Transportation, air pollution and physical activities; an integrated health risk assessment programme of climate change and urban policies

18/11/2015 Presentation name / Author19 Climate, health: win-win

From need to assessment problem

18/11/2015 Presentation name / Author21 From need to assessment problem Information gap drives the assessment –There is a need to know, but required knowledge/information is missing need to make decision (action/no action, what action) need to choose among decision options need to know available decision options need to know preferability of decision options Multiple possible decision makers –e.g. political leaders, industrial managers, individuals Multiple possible decisions/actions –e.g. policy, investment, consumption

18/11/2015 Presentation name / Author22 From need to assessment problem Assessment object in open assessment

18/11/2015 Presentation name / Author23 From need to assessment problem Purpose of assessment is to satisfy the information gap of intended users of the assessment The information gap needs to be indicated or identified, analyzed and understood The information gap determines the boundaries for what needs to be assessed

18/11/2015 Presentation name / Author24 From need to assessment problem Assessment scope (purpose, users and boundaries) describes the assessment problem –what is needed to know, why, who will use the knowledge? Purpose & users - practical requirements for how the assessment should be made Boundaries define the part of reality which to assess Scenarios are specific conditionings that need to be done in order to address the need adequately

18/11/2015 Presentation name / Author25 Example: TAPAS Transportation, air pollution and physical activities; an integrated health risk assessment programme of climate change and urban policies Can we define: –Purpose of the TAPAS assessment? –Boundaries of the TAPAS assessment? –Users of the TAPAS assessment output? Can the assessment problem be formulated into a question or a set of questions?

Where to look for solutions?

18/11/2015 Presentation name / Author27 Where to look for solutions? What needs to be done in order to address the problem? Assessment is about finding solutions to the assessment problem –also finding out what is not known in order to solve the problem consider knowledge management vs. ignorance management –assessments are done according to need, not according to e.g. coincidental data availability

18/11/2015 Presentation name / Author28 Finding solutions to the problem

18/11/2015 Presentation name / Author29 Where to look for solutions? What needs to be known in order to make the right decision? –Decision options –Outcomes affected –Factors that mediate and influence the effect from decision to outcome

18/11/2015 Presentation name / Author30 Where to look for solutions? Indicators: issues of specific interest

18/11/2015 Presentation name / Author31 Summary Assessments serve two masters –Practical need (of policy) –Scientific truth Need determines assessment scope –Problem to solve Scope determines what needs to be assessed –Suggestion for solving the problem Coming up with solutions and putting them to use (assessment definition and result) will be discussed more on Thursday