SAM FRERE, ERIC ROTHSCHILD, COLLIN SUMPTER, JOSHUA WERNER Beijing, China

Overview Problem Overview  Background  Problem Statement  Stakeholders  Goal Solutions Overview  Assumptions  Solutions  Implementation Timeline  Unintended Consequences

Beijing, China 3000 Years old 2/3 Mountains, 1/3 plains 16 districts, 2 rural counties 16,808 km 2 Semi-arid, semi-humid Continental monsoon climate

The Problem Lack of fresh water  ~148 m 3 per person  UN standard for water scarcity  1000 cubic meters ~6 times less Causes  Increasing Population  Located in arid area of China  Climate Change  Polluted Reserves  Economic Growth

Population Growth

Average Precipitation

Consumption by Sector

Pollution Guanting and Miyun Reservoirs  Quantity and Quality issues  Guanting – Category IV  Miyun – Not as polluted but contains 15% of capacity Urban Water Use  In 2000, only 16% of wastewater was treated  In 2010 ~ 60% wastewater was treated

Stakeholders Industry Domestic Population Agriculture Municipal Government

Goal Create a sustainable water supply for Beijing which approaches 1,000 m 3 per person by 2050  Increase infrastructure to handle water pollution  Population management  Increase surface water supply to decrease groundwater consumption  Create pricing structure which matches cost of water

Solutions

Assumptions Solutions work within the current government structure Population increase is currently 3.8% annually  Current population is 22 million Beijing Consumption Rate = 3.25 billion m 3 annually

Solutions South-North Diversion Project (SNDP) Population Control and Redistribution Water Pollution Control Desalination Water Pricing

Population Management Cornerstone of escalating water consumption Current population growth rate ~ 3.8% Current population ~ 22 million Carrying Capacity?

Population Management: Carrying Capacity CC ~ 8 million people…uh oh.

Population Management: SNDP

Population Management : How? Immigration vs Natural Increases Beijing = Economic powerhouse Urbanize Western China  Xi’an, Chengdu, Kunming, and Chongqing  Subsidize living in West (housing prices)  Low income tax for corporations, smart growth options

Water Pollution Control 3 pronged approach:  Domestic wastewater management  Development of future water treatment plants.  Industrial pollution management  Current Strategy: pay when pollutant load is greater than standard.  Proposed Strategy: pay for all pollutant generation by ton.  A direct charge of 1 U.S. $ / ton may decrease pollution by 80%.  Remediation of current reservoirs  Bioremediation/phytoremediation.  Current surface water capacity can be doubled.

Desalination in Caofeidian Why Desalination?  Caofeidian – Coastal city located 230 km from Beijing The Desalinization Project  Price of First Stage : $67 million  Completed Oct 2011  Funded and controlled by Beijing Enterprise Water (BEW)  Current Capacity: 500,000 m3/day  Short-Term Goal: 1 million m3/day (approx. $1.4 billion, 3-5 years)  Long-Term Goal: Replace coal with renewable energy  Beijing Pipeline: $700 million (1-2 years)  Depends on Results of SNDP

Water Pricing Potential Increasing Block Tarriff (IBT)  High-income groups generally use more water.  The proposed will incentivize conservation for those who use the most water.  Generate revenue for infrastructure development for quality and quantity of water such as offsetting cost of S to N project, desalination, water treatment, and pollution management.

Unintended Consequences Government participation Completion dates for SNDP Discontinuity of economic growth Elasticity of water price from new technologies Average lifetime of a dam ~ 50 Years

Questions?