Land Use and human- enviroment interactions in Amazonia Gilberto Câmara National Institute for Space Research (INPE) FAPESP 50 Years Symposium, 2011

Agriculture Energy Ecosystems Climate change Weather and natural disasters Space technology adds value to Brazil´s natural knowledge economy Megacities

Source: Cybermetrics Lab, Spain INPE: only Brazilian institute in top 40 World Research Centers: Impact and Visibility

Nature, 29 July 2010

ICSU “Grand challenges” Develop, enhance and integrate the observation systems needed to manage global and regional environmental change. Improve the usefulness of forecasts of future environmental conditions and their consequences for people. Determine what institutional, economic and behavioural changes can enable effective steps toward global sustainability.

ICSU “Grand challenges”: a bit of ancient wisdom Be careful what you wish for….

The challenge: reducing deforestation

Impact of land change in Brazil’s emissions

Medium-resolution (5-50 m) earth observation satellites data are global public goods Earth observation satellites are essential for measuring land change

T2 – Loss of smaller trees How does deforestation happen? T1 – Selective logging T3 – Loss >50% of forestT4 – Loss >90% of forest

Floresta time dialy deforestation alerts Yearly rates of clear cuts INPE’s Monitoring Systems

Daily warnings of newly deforested large areas Real-time Deforestation Monitoring

Result: major reduction in deforestation Markets? Credit crunch? Coercion? Institutional arrangments?

Markets have a positive rôle

Policing actions: illegal wood seizure 50% of operations in 2% of the area

Transparency builds governance! CBERS image Science (27 April 2007): “ Brazil´s monitoring system is the envy of the world ”. Deforestation Degradation

Jan-April/2011: 126% increase Keep watching!

Deforestation hotspots: March-May 2011

Deforestation hotspots: June-August 2011

“By 2020, Brazil will reduce deforestation by 80% relative to 2005.” (pres. Lula in Copenhagen COP-15)

Market impact of deforestation reduction in Brazil EU-15 reduction % of 1990 levels Avoided def Brazil From 2005 to 2020, avoided deforestation by Brazil would be 2/3 of the total proposed EU-15 cuts 7,7 Gt CO2eq 4,9 Gt CO2eq

What happened with km2 deforested? First map of land use and land cover of Amazonia

Agriculture (grains)

Cleared pasture

Degraded land

ClassTOTAL (km 2 ) Clean Pasture ,9446,7% Secundary Vegetation ,3121,0% Dirty pasture ,758,7% Regeneration with pasture ,376,7% Non-observed areas ,276,3% Agriculture (large-scale) ,244,9% Small farms and settlers ,573,4% Urban areas 3.818,140,5% Mining 730,680,1% Degraded areas 594,190,1% Others 477,880,1% Desflorestation ,641,6% TOTAL ,99

The Brazilian Amazon has different institutional arrangements that influence the spatial and temporal patterns of deforestation. Prediction?

Governing the commons: institutional arrangments [Ostrom, Science, 2005]

Institutional analysis in Amazonia Identify different agents and try to model their actions Field work Land change patterns Land change models Urban networks

Current situation in Amazonia Araújo e Aguiar (forthcoming) Tension between different ways of access to market and natural resources, land tenure regimes (private and public/collective) and political forces.

Landscape model: different rules of behavior at different partitions which also change in time FRENTE MEIO RETAGUARDA Forest Not Forest Deforest River FRONT MIDDLE BACK SÃO FÉLIX DO XINGU

Full and open access to space-based information is indispensable for global sustainable development

“A few satellites can cover the entire globe, but there needs to be a system in place to ensure their images are readily available to everyone who needs them. Brazil has set an important precedent by making its Earth-observation data available, and the rest of the world should follow suit.”

Environmental issues are best handled with participation of all citizens. Each individual shall have appropriate access to information concerning the environment. RIO-92 Declaration – principle #10

RIO + 20: bulding on principles from RIO-92 We need a new convention on the public availability of environmental information

Thanks to INPE’s team Deforestation and land cover monitoring: Dalton Valeriano, Claudio Almeida, Luiz Maurano, Isabel Escada, Silvana Amaral, Mauricio Silva Land change modelling and institutional analysis: Ana Paula Aguiar, Roberto Araújo, Pedro Andrade, Luciana Soler, Talita Assis, Sérgio Costa, Patrícia Pinho