DRAFT: June 23, 2006 Bryn Davidson DRAFT June 23, 2006 ‘Scenario Coaster’ Coming to terms with the mainstream peaking scenarios.... an addendum to ‘Our.

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Presentation transcript:

DRAFT: June 23, 2006 Bryn Davidson DRAFT June 23, 2006 ‘Scenario Coaster’ Coming to terms with the mainstream peaking scenarios.... an addendum to ‘Our Future(s)’ ‘Our Future(s)’

DRAFT: June 23, 2006 Rapid Depletion and/or early peaking Slow Depletion and/or later peaking Proactive Response Government, Society, Technology & Markets Reactive Response Markets, Technology, Society & Government 4 Energy Scenarios “Techno-Markets” aka “Sustainable Development” aka “Sci-Fi Utopia” “Burnout” aka “Climate Chaos” aka “Business as Usual” “Lean Economy” * aka “Powerdown” aka “Energy Descent” “Collapse” aka “Mad Max” aka “Easter Island” * per David Fleming

DRAFT: June 23, 2006 CERA 2005 ExxonMobil 2005 EIA (High Price) 2006 BP 2005 Koppelaar 2005 Laherrere 2005 ASPO yr. Global Oil Production - Peaking Scenarios (likely head-start required to fully mitigate peaking*) Curves Compiled by Freddy Hutter www/trendlines.ca * per the ‘Hirsch Report’

DRAFT: June 23, Global Oil Production Which scenario is preferable? Which is scariest? 1970

DRAFT: June 23, 2006 Compiled by Freddy Hutter www/trendlines.ca CERA 2005 ExxonMobil 2005 EIA (High Price) 2006 BP 2005 Koppelaar 2005 Laherrere2005 ASPO yr. Global Oil Production – A Scary Peaking Scenario - ASPO Scary: Fossil fuel production pleateaus, then drops off unexpectedly. Very few countries have plans in place to deal with the massive economic turbulence ‘Collapse’....or if you cooperate locally.... ‘Lean where’d that come from?! Curves Compiled by Freddy Hutter www/trendlines.ca

DRAFT: June 23, 2006 CERA 2005 ExxonMobil 2005 EIA (High Price) 2006 BP 2005 Koppelaar 2005 Laherrere2005 ASPO yr. Global Oil Production – The Scariest Peaking Scenario - CERA Curves Compiled by Freddy Hutter www/trendlines.ca

DRAFT: June 23, 2006 CERA 2005 ExxonMobil 2005 EIA (High Price) 2006 BP 2005 Koppelaar 2005 Laherrere2005 ASPO yr. Global Oil Production – The Scariest Peaking Scenario - CERA Scary – Part 1: Fossil fuel production ramps up faster than ‘clean-fossil’ technologies that sequester emissions – leading to accelerated global warming, pollution, sprawl, and oil dependence....‘Burnout’ Curves Compiled by Freddy Hutter www/trendlines.ca

DRAFT: June 23, 2006 CERA 2005 ExxonMobil 2005 EIA (High Price) 2006 BP 2005 Koppelaar 2005 Laherrere2005 ASPO yr. Global Oil Production – The Scariest Peaking Scenario - CERA Scary – Part 2: Fossil fuel production plateaus, then drops off a cliff... New technologies can’t come close to making up the Curves Compiled by Freddy Hutter www/trendlines.ca

DRAFT: June 23, 2006 CERA 2005 ExxonMobil 2005 EIA (High Price) 2006 BP 2005 Koppelaar 2005 Laherrere2005 ASPO yr. Global Oil Production – The Scariest Peaking Scenario - CERA ‘Burnout’ + ‘Collapse’ = (Probably not a preferred Curves Compiled by Freddy Hutter www/trendlines.ca

DRAFT: June 23, 2006 Compiled by Freddy Hutter www/trendlines.ca CERA 2005 ExxonMobil 2005 EIA (High Price) 2006 BP 2005 Koppelaar 2005 Laherrere 2005 ASPO yr. Global Oil Production – Smoothest Peaking Scenario - Laherrere ! Not too scary: Oil and gas peak around 2012, but we’ve had a few years to get ready. We encounter some shortages, but the decline of oil and gas is slow enough that some of the ‘clean fuels’ actually make a bit of a difference.....‘Techno-Markets’.. if the mainstream politicians got the incentives right back in ’ ‘Lean Economy’... if you had to go-it-alone with just your local community. Curves Compiled by Freddy Hutter www/trendlines.ca

DRAFT: June 23, 2006 CERA 2005 ExxonMobil 2005 EIA (High Price) 2006 BP 2005 Koppelaar 2005 Laherrere 2005 ASPO yr. Global Oil Production – Energy Transition Strategies Curves Compiled by Freddy Hutter www/trendlines.ca (a) (c) (b) 1. Can you generate a broad consensus around the fact that (a) and (c) are possible, but probably not desirable. 2. If so, then plan your mainstream policies around a consensus path*...probably something similar to (b)?. 3. Develop contingency plans for dealing with either (a) or (c). 4. Start. Now. * Whether or not you think this is the most probable.. it needs to be the one we can agree on as being preferable – peakniks, economists, politicians, and everyone in between.

DRAFT: June 23, 2006 Bryn Davidson Dynamic Cities Project Rao/D Cityworks These scenarios are a work-in- progress. Thanks to everyone who has commented thus far... ‘Scenario Coaster’ an addendum to ‘Our Future(s)’