LBA/Physical Climate Moist Convection in the Amazon

Things models should do that LBA data has pointed out easterlies/westerlies and convection land features effects on convection –forest vs non-forest –topography –river vs land

Rondônia hPa zonal wind - CPTEC

Santarém hPa zonal wind - CPTEC

Manaus hPa zonal wind - CPTEC

Summers of 1980 to 1999 Carvalho et al, 2002

Summers of 1980 to 1999 Carvalho et al, 2002

Blakeslee, 2000 Petersen, 2000 Blakeslee,2000

Rickenbach et al. 2000

Tokai, 2000

Anagnostou & Morales, 2002 Hourly rainfall rate from TOGA radar

Hourly average cloud fraction GOES TOGA

6:20 7:20 8:20 9:20 10:20 11:20 12:20 Local Time Time of first radar echoes S-Pol Jan/Feb 1999 easterlies westerlies

Pereira et al 2000

TRMM-LBA Region: Forest vs. Non-Forest SPOL Profiler TOGA FOREST NON-FOREST Carey et al 2001

TRMM-LBA Region: Topography “Elevated” >= 223 m “Non-Elevated” < 223 m Carey et al 2001

CategoryUnconditional Rain Rate mm h -1 ) Conditional Rain Rate (mm h -1 ) Forested Non-Forested Relative Difference (F-NF)/[(F+NF)/2] + 7 %+ 19 % Effects of Deforestation on Rain Rate Statistics Carey et al 2001

CategoryR u (mm h -1 )R c (mm h -1 )Fractional Grid Coverage (%) ALL NE E NF F NF NE NF E F NE F E R u = Unconditional Mean Rain Rate R c = Conditional Mean Rain Rate NE = Non Elevated (< 223 m) E = Elevated (  223 m) F = Forested NF = Non Forested Fractional Rain Duration = % of grid boxes for land type category with rain (R > 0) Fractional Grid Coverage = % of all grid boxes for land type category KEY : TRMM-LBA: Effect of land type on rainfall statistics Carey et al 2001

CategoryFebruary 1999 Mean Rain Depth (mm) Forested198.5 Non-Forested183.1 Relative Difference (F-NF)/[(F+NF)/2] 8 % Effects of Deforestation on Cumulative Rain Depth Carey et al 2001

CategoryFebruary 1999 Mean Rain Depth (mm) ALL194.0 NE181.0 E206.4 NF183.1 F198.5 NF NE176.2 NF E193.6 F NE183.7 F E210.7 Land Effects on Rain Depth Carey et al 2001

Effects of Elevation on Rain Depth Carey et al 2001

Elevated Only Non-Elevated Only Forested Non-Forested Forested Non-Forested Carey et al 2001

23 July 2001 Tapajós (from Pindobal to Boim and back) 28 July 2001 Tapajós & Amazonas (red line: temperature where the two rivers merge)

AWS Jamaraquá 24 July / 1 August 2001 West East South North

Winds at Belterra radiosonde Pressure (mb)

Winds and potential temperature Belterra radiosonde

Wind vector 23 M ABOVE THE SURFACE

wind – streamlines perpendicular to the Tapajós river

Potencial temperature

Model improvements based on LBA data USP - RAMS reanalysis - changes in cumulus parameterization

CPTEC THERMODYNAMIM STRUCTURE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AT WET-AMC/LBA SITES AND ETA MODEL VALIDATION Jorge Gomes, Sin Chan Chou and Gilberto Fisch Deep convection characteristic parameters from soundings over Rondonia AMC-LBA sites were evaluated and compared with Eta model forecasts. Radiosondes were interpolated to 5hPa regular intervals. The model diurnal cycle captured correctly the observed amplitude and timing. Thermodynamic variables such as CAPE, cloud base and top, cloud lapse rate, deficit from saturation pressure, etc. were calculated from observations and model hourly profile outputs. The model adjusts the convective environment toward a drier profile below the freezing level and toward a moister profile in the levels above. The new parameters derived from the observations were input to the model which produced a reasonable forecast over most part of Brazil. Equitable Threat Score showed significant improvement of precipitation forecasts over most of the domains using new set of parameter, however, the model show little change over the Tropical forest region Model improvements based on LBA data

CPTEC SIMULATIONS WITH A RADIATION MODEL AND COMPARISONS WITH LBA DATA SETS Sergio H. Franchito, E. C. Moraes and V. Brahmananda Rao The LBA data are used to estimate and validate infrared and solar radiation models calculations of Chou and Suarez. The models are tested for two contrasting vegetation regions: forest and grassland. Observed data of several days and different times of a day collected in the two sites are used to test the models. The results show that the models simulations in general agree well with the observations for both the forest and grassland cases. The mean errors are around the same order or lower than the instrument errors, except in the case of the reflected solar radiation. The radiation fluxes are strongly correlated with the observed data, significant at 99% confidence level, except in the case of the downward longwave radiation. Model improvements based on LBA data

NASA - DAO THE MOISTURE BUDGET BI-MODAL PATTERN OF THE SUMMER CIRCULATION OVER SOUTH AMERICA Dirceu Herdies, Arlindo da Silva, Maria A. F. Silva Dias The LBA observations during january-february 1999 campaing were divided into South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) events and non-SACZ events. These data were used to validate the DAO/NASA Global Model analyses. The moisture budget over South America showed that the moisture transport from tropics to extratropics is more efficient during SACZ than during Low Level Jet events. Model improvements based on LBA data