1 OASIS In-Space Architecture - A Commercialization Analysis OASIS In-Space Architecture - A Commercialization Analysis May 3, 2002 The Boeing Company Doug Blue Dave Carey Matt Jew Rudy Saucillo Bill Siegfried May 3, 2002 The Boeing Company Doug Blue Dave Carey Matt Jew Rudy Saucillo Bill Siegfried

2 Executive Summary Background Hybrid Propellant Module Chemical Transfer Module Solar Electric Propulsion Stage Crew Transfer Vehicle Orbital Aggregation & Space Infrastructure Systems (OASIS) is an in-space architecture concept consisting of highly reusable systems and resources that provide a common infrastructure for enabling a large class of space missions FY01 RASC studies focused on preliminary design of OASIS elements and analysis of Lunar Gateway and commercial mission scenarios This study package summarizes results of FY01 OASIS commercialization analyses –OASIS capability and potential commercial markets (traffic model) –Economic viability analysis –Preliminary costing of OASIS elements

3 Executive Summary Results OASIS Commercial Traffic Models OASIS performance has been evaluated for commercial satellite applications OASIS commercial traffic models have been developed based on satellite delivery; considered the “floor” for potential commercial applications Future DoD missions may provide additional OASIS applications/usage rates OASIS Economic Viability HPM/CTM has commercial potential when used as an orbital transfer stage in conjunction with a low cost booster to LEO at flight rates greater than 3 per year per HPM/CTM OASIS commercial viability is highly sensitive to infrastructure costs, mission rates and Earth-to-LEO launch costs The cost information provided herein is for study purposes only and does not constitute a commitment on the part of the Boeing Company.

4 Table of Contents Overview and Assumptions Projected Satellites/Constellations Performance Analyses Integrated Traffic Model Economic Viability Analysis Cost Estimation Analysis Summary

5 Commercialization Study Overview and Assumptions

6 Overview and Assumptions Objectives Assess OASIS applicability and benefits for Earth Neighborhood commercial and DoD space missions in the timeframe Determine key needs for projected commercial/DoD missions that OASIS may support (e.g., deployment, refueling/servicing, retrieval/disposal) Quantify levels of potential commercial utilization and develop ROM estimates for economic impacts Study Drivers Projected commercial/DoD satellite market OASIS design (sizing, performance) OASIS allocation to support identified markets (traffic models) ETO transportation costs (trades vs. non-OASIS architectures, cost of resupply propellant) Assumptions Scenarios utilize OASIS elements defined for Exploration missions using “performance” masses A low cost Earth-to-LEO transportation capability is required —Highly reliable RLV or ELV for sensitive cargo —Lower cost LEO delivery system for propellant resupply Industry adopts common infrastructure (e.g., attach fittings, refueling ports, plug-and-play avionics) Goal - Maximize potential commercial opportunities (i.e., Greatest number of satellites deployed/serviced with minimum number of OASIS elements) Sun Synch GEO GTO Molniya LEO-MEO Polar Commercial Orbits

7 Commercialization Study Methodology OASIS Specs Commercial Satellite Traffic Models Military Analogs Ground Rules & Assumptions Technology Initiative Databases “Speed curves” for LEO, MEO and GEO missions Single and multiple OASIS operations High and Low Traffic Models Integrated Commercial, Military & Exploration #OASIS elements and flight rate per mission type ETO estimate for HPM resupply propellant HPM/CTM life cycle revenue potential ETO cost targets (satellite delivery and HPM resupply propellant) HPM/CTM non-recurring start-up cost Research technology development efforts Estimate complexity factors Estimate costs using Cost Estimating Relationships OASIS resizing options Enabling/enhancing technologies for commercial operations Satellite design and operations impacts Refinement of Commercial Traffic Models Integrated Commercial, DoD and Exploration Traffic Models Preliminary Economic Viability Analysis OASIS Performance Analysis Commercial OASIS Traffic Model Development OASIS Economic Viability Analysis Technology and Operations Assessment OASIS Element Cost Estimate Inputs Potential OASIS support roles OASIS operations strategies “Best fit” OASIS orbit planes Analysis of Projected Satellites/Constellations Technology development cost estimates First unit production cost estimates FY02 Study ProductsFY01 Study Products

8 Commercialization Study Projected Satellites/Constellations

9 Satellite Market Trends - Comstac & Futron Studies Comstac Forecast Trends in Payload Mass Distribution Commercial NGSO market estimates fluctuating, trends volatile GEO launch demand fairly constant ( >30/year) Spacecraft mass growth continues - especially heavies ( >5,445 kg) Spacecraft trend toward electric propulsion Commercial launch demand trends: –Consolidation of spacecraft manufacturers/owners –Increasing on-orbit lifetime –Business conservatism for financing projects DoD DoD applications difficult to identify; programs under definition Trend toward greater value and functionality per satellite unit mass; initial “picosatellite” experiments have been completed AF Science Advisory Board: distributed constellations of smaller satellites offer better prospects for “global, real-time coverage” and “advantages in scaling, performance, cost, and survivability” Potential for very large antenna arrays for optical and radio- frequency imaging utilizing advanced structures and materials technologies

10 Current NGSO Commercial Constellation Summary LEO = Low Earth Orbit MEO = Medium Earth Orbit ELI = Elliptical Earth Orbit Ha = Height of Apogee Hp = Height of Perigee Inc = Inclination

11 Current NGSO Military Constellation Summary Commercial/Military parameter summary Total constellation count = 39 Altitude range => 556 to 2,800 km –Except for GPS (20,200 km), New ICO (10,390 km), Rostelesat (10,360 km), 3 elliptical constellations Inclination range => 45 to 117 degrees –Except for ECCO, ECO-8, and Ellipso (part) all at 0 degrees Orbit planes => 1 to 8 Data available for 27 constellations for OASIS traffic model analysis

12 Satellite count = 279 Near uniform distribution Projected 30 launches per year Current Distribution of GEO Satellites Co-located satellites offset by 2 degree latitude increments for display Source data:

13 Commercial and DoD Satellite Scenarios Deployment Delivery, Rescue Replacement, Disposal Servicing Refueling Refurbishing DoD Applications Same as above plus Repositioning Next generation, follow- on to DARPA Orbital Express (OE) Space Operations Architecture Program OE demonstration planned for CY2006 OE uses “industry standard” interfaces 400 KM HPM Parking Orbit Satellite Operational Orbit (or Geostationary Transfer Orbit) (1) ELV launches HPM resupply propellant; HPM/CTM perform rendezvous/dock and refueling operations (2) RLV launches and deploys one or more satellites to LEO (3) HPM/CTM perform rendezvous/docking and maneuver to satellite operational orbit (4) HPM/CTM deploy satellite in operational orbit and return to parking orbit (5) HPM/CTM complete maneuver to parking orbit

14 NASA-USAF Reusable Space Launch Development Integrated Architecture Elements

15 Commercialization Study OASIS Performance Analyses

16 OASIS Payload/Velocity “Speed” Curves (Utilizing a Single HPM Per Mission) Preliminary performance analyses based on manipulation of the rocket equation where  V = velocity change, g = gravity constant, I sp = specific impulse, mi = initial mass, mf = final mass Curve shows initial comparison of selected mission velocity requirements with various OASIS system capabilities Subsequent NGSO analysis based on performance of single HPM/CTM deployment mission

17 OASIS Performance Capability vs. Representative Spacecraft

18 Analysis Assumptions Market Future NGSO constellations will exist in similar orbits as recently envisioned Launch Vehicle Delivers payloads to 400 km circular parking orbits at inclination (inc) and right ascension (RA) of stored OASIS elements closest to final orbit HPM A propellant reserve provides 150 mps velocity reserve for maneuvers (e.g., rendezvous, proximity operations and docking, reboost in storage orbits, etc) CTM HPM chemical engine applies  V impulsively at locally optimal orbit locations – Perigee and Apogee (i.e., Hohmann transfers) for altitude variation – Node crossings for inclination changes – Nodal complement locations for right ascension changes Propellant is available to autonomously pre-position to HPM rendezvous point as necessary SEP Not considered in analyses due to mission duration impact and refurbishment costs Satellite Satellite battery life available for ~2 days autonomous operation between LEO delivery and HPM docking and mission completion - Boeing Satellite Systems concurs

19 NGSO Constellation Orbital Distribution

20 Satellite Orbit Transfer Definitions Altitude Right Ascension of Ascending Node Equatorial plane 1. Raise HPM/CTM altitude Holmann transfer with  V’s at perigee and apogee of transfer orbit 2. Change inclination*  V perpendicular to orbit plane at ascending or descending node 3. Change right ascension  V perpendicular to orbit plane 90 o from ascending or descending node Orbital Volume DefinitionsHPM/CTM to Satellite Orbit Maneuver Sequence * Sequence steps 2 and 3 reversed if satellite inclination > HPM/CTM inclination Inclination Initial Orbit Final Orbit

21 NGSO Analysis Results Initial analysis For each satellite in current market –Calculate  V required for delivery and return –Compare  V to HPM/CTM capability –Adjust HPM/CTM inclination and orbit planes to improve performance Results –Only 14 of 27 constellations deployable –Need 3 constellations, total of 30 HPM/CTMs (10 in each constellation) Revised analysis For each satellite –Recalculate  V required without Right Ascension plane change –Compare with HPM/CTM capability –Compute nodal alignment phase time Results –24 of 27 constellations deployable –Need 2 constellations, total of 18 HPM/CTMs –Launch windows occur within 30 days Nodal regression significantly reduces propulsive requirements Differential Nodal Regression rate between HPM/CTM and satellite orbits eliminates need for Right Ascension plane change But, requires time to align orbit planes Nodal Regression Rate varies with orbit altitude and inclination (< 5 deg/day) Nodal Regression Rate Angular rate of change of Right Ascension of the Line of Nodes per day Line of nodes in a few days Line of nodes now Right Ascension Satellite orbit HPM/CTM parking orbit Satellite orbit

22 NGSO Traffic Model Conclusions Use Rates HPM/CTM Constellation Allocation Most of the current suite of commercial/military constellations are deployable/serviceable – Requires one constellation of 8 HPM/CTMs near ISS inclination – Requires one constellation of 10 HPM/CTMs near polar inclination – Planar launch window opportunities within 30 days MEO satellites (e.g., GPS) are delivered to transfer orbits using “near ISS” HPM/CTMs Nominal Traffic Model for 18 total HPM/CTMs

23 Commercialization Study Integrated OASIS Traffic Model

24 OASIS Integrated Traffic Model “Refined” commercial traffic model based on: Higher usage rate missions only (> 3 flights per HPM per year) Single launch site from ETR to eliminate duplication of ground infrastructure (excludes polar servicing) 50% market share (of high traffic model) Traffic model variation is based on satellite lifetime extremes Lifetime Estimates 5 years 10 years

25 Commercialization Study OASIS Economic Viability Analysis

26 OASIS Economic Viability Analysis Overview Objective Provide a preliminary economic viability assessment of HPM/CTM in future commercial satellite deployment/servicing markets as defined by the integrated traffic model Approach Compare potential life cycle earnings over range of critical economic factors –Identify economic factors with strong influence on earnings –Determine the economic sensitivity and establish hurdle values for these critical factors Earning levels necessary for economic viability include allowance for non- recurring start up costs –Start up costs per HPM/CTM include: HPM/CTM procurement (ROM estimate: ~$150 million each), and initial launch, development and deployment of commercial peculiar infrastructure (e.g., HPM propellant processing facilities) –Start up costs per HPM/CTM assumed not to exceed $500 million; actual value varies inversely with fleet size –Industry leverages government investment in infrastructure development

27 Identification of Critical Economic Factors Critical Economic Factors Charge to deploy satellite to operational orbit Propellant delivery cost to LEO ($ per kg) Payload (satellite) cost ($ per kg) to LEO HPM/CTM use rate Life cycle earnings Ch Prop P/L R Definition -Total charge to customer to deploy their satellite -Establishes cost to resupply HPM with full load (~32,000 kg) of propellant per deployment -5,000 kg payload, calculated at twice the $/kg as propellant -HPM/CTM flights per year (based on traffic model analysis) -LCE = [Ch - (Prop + P/L)]*R*10 year HPM/CTM life

28 Economic Sensitivities $30 M Deployment Charge (Ch)* ,0001,5002,000 Propellant Delivery Cost to LEO ($ per kg) Life Cycle Earnings ($ Billions) $70 M Deployment Charge (Ch)* ,0001,5002, HPM/CTM Use Rate Flts/yr Area of Economic Viability Life Cycle Earnings ($ Billions) Life Cycle Earnings * Charge to Deploy 5,000 kg Satellite to Operational Orbit Commercial Viability Requires: Industry leverages government investment in infrastructure Enough life cycle earnings to: -Cover start-up costs (HPM/CTM procurement/deployment and infrastructure estimated to be as much as $0.5 billion) -Provide desired return on investment Low propellant delivery cost (< $1,000/kg) HPM/CTM use rates > 3 flights per year 9 * Charge to Deploy 5,000 kg Satellite to Operational Orbit HPM/CTM Use Rate Flts/yr Area of Economic Viability

29 Objectives: Estimate costs for the OASIS reusable space architecture Technology development to TRL 6 First unit production of four elements Objectives: Estimate costs for the OASIS reusable space architecture Technology development to TRL 6 First unit production of four elements Assumptions/Groundrules: Compatible with current launch systems Based on Boeing-derived parametric cost models with complexity factors and industry technology development forecasts Includes industrial development factors (commonality, man-rating, management reserve) Initial Operational Capability in 2015 Assumptions/Groundrules: Compatible with current launch systems Based on Boeing-derived parametric cost models with complexity factors and industry technology development forecasts Includes industrial development factors (commonality, man-rating, management reserve) Initial Operational Capability in 2015 Crew Transfer Vehicle (with CTM) Solar Electric Propulsion Module Chemical Transfer Module Hybrid Propellant Module Multi-use benefit -> Shared infrastructure costs (Industry, NASA, DoD) OASIS Cost Estimation Analysis

30 References for Commercial Satellite Traffic Models and Military Analogs Futron Corporation. “Trends in Space Commerce” March Provides trends for major space industry segments through 2020 Based on survey polls of 700 global aerospace companies Federal Aviation Administration. “2001 Commercial Space Transportation Projections for Non-geosynchronous Orbits (NGSO)” May [referred to as the Comstac Study] Projects launch demand for commercial space systems through 2010 Based on survey of 90 industry organizations Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA). “The Military Use of Space; A Diagnostic Assessment” February Assessment of the evolving capabilities of nations and other “actors” to exploit near-Earth space for military purposes over the next years. Based on interviews with key military personnel and web site research Review of numerous Web sites For satellite constellation detail “AIAA International Reference Guide to Space Launch Systems” Information on current launch costs

31 “World Space Systems Briefing”, the Teal Group, Fairfax, Va., presented during the IAF 52nd International Astronautical Congress in Toulouse, France, October 2, Summary of current satellite market “Research and Development in CONUS Labs (RaDiCL) Data Base” Military laboratory technology initiatives “NASA Technology Inventory Data Base” NASA funded technology activities Technology Planning Briefing, Boeing Space and Communications, June Summary of Boeing’s IRAD programs to enable technologies Interviews with Boeing personnel Orbital Express Program (DARPA) – to identify additional military analogs 3 rd Generation RLV Enterprise – use of HPM or similar element in overall transportation architecture Roy A. E., “The Foundations of Astrodynamics”, MacMillan Company, dated 1965 Closed-form delta-velocity calculations Additional References for Commercial Satellite Traffic Models and Military Analogs

32 Cost Estimation References Telecons/Meetings HPM Team Points of Contact OASIS - Pat Troutman, LaRC HPM - Jeff Antol, LaRC CTM - Vance Houston, MSFC SEP - Tim Sarver-Verhey, GRC CTV - Bill CiriIlo, LaRC

33 Cost Estimation References RASC Database, HPM_Concept_JA_oct4.xls, Dated Oct 4, 2001 NASA Technology Plan web site, URL technologyplan.nasa.gov OASIS FY01 Final Report draft, ftp site taurus.larc.nasa.gov Numerous web sites for specific technology details NASA Cost Model, NASCOM, Version 96 Databases/Documents/Cost Models

34 Acronym List

35 Acronym List