Update on Transit Technology Choices Corey W. Hill Chief of Public Transportation June 2009

Background  West Virginia University did a life cycle cost (LCC) analysis on four types of bus technologies in  Analysis estimated and compared total capital and operating costs on purchasing and operating four bus technologies from 2007 to – diesel hybrid-electric buses – conventional diesel buses using ultra low sulfur diesel – compressed natural gas (CNG) buses – conventional diesel buses using B20 biodiesel  WVU updated analysis in September 2008 to reflect dramatic increase in diesel cost.  WVU updated analysis again in May 2009 as part of a TCRP report that is awaiting publication.

June 2009  Hybrid Technology had a much higher capital cost than diesel technology and CNG was slightly higher than diesel  Operating cost was similar for the four bus types. CNG was the lowest and hybrids offered the best fuel economy  Diesel buses were the most economic technology and diesel buses fueled by B20 biodiesel were slightly higher due to the added expense of the fuel  Hybrid buses were attractive in offering emissions advantages  Fuel economy and emissions depended strongly on bus route and operating conditions 2007 Study Results

June Background  2008 analysis examined four scenarios: Scenario 1 - Annual Energy Outlook published by the Energy Information Administration predicted the diesel price would be $3.50/gal and CNG price would be $2.00/gal in Average forecast for the first 6 months of 2008 was significantly higher so WVU authors aligned forecast curve with the 2008 average price of diesel ($4.07/gal). Scenario 2 – Fuel prices are 25% higher than Scenario 1 Scenario 3 – Fuel prices are 50% higher than Scenario 1 Scenario 4 – Fuel prices are 100% higher than in Scenario 1

June Study Results  Hybrid technology had a higher cost than diesel technology (28%). Hybrids offered the best fuel economy, however, savings were offset by purchase price and battery replacement cost.  If 80% federal subsidy was considered, hybrids and diesels were similar on cost when the price of diesel averaged $5.00/gal for 12 years.  CNG buses are the most economic technology. Purchase of 100 buses dilutes CNG infrastructure cost in the overall cost. Diesel was second.

June