Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies Russia‘s WTO accession and Austria Vasily Astrov 3 November 2011

 wiiw 2 Austria‘s exports to Russia, 2010 Source: own calculations based on Statistik Austria

 wiiw 3 WTO impact on AT exports to RU  WTO accession decline in some RU import tariffs -+20% for chemicals (incl. pharmaceuticals) exports to RU -+3% for machinery & equipment exports to RU  Long run  WTO multilateral rounds of trade liberalization -+ up to 40% for chemicals exports to RU -+ up to 25% for machinery & equipment exports to RU  Efficiency gains in RU economy – higher GDP growth – more import demand -+ up to 25% for overall AT exports to RU

 wiiw 4 Austria‘s imports from Russia, 2010 Source: own calculations based on Statistik Austria

 wiiw 5 WTO impact on AT imports from RU: more limited  Energy imports (85% of total) not affected by WTO  Non-energy: MFN (or GSP) import tariffs apply already now!  Less non-tariff barriers (anti-dumping…): not guaranteed  Long run:  Higher competitiveness of RU exports: +1% increase  WTO multilateral rounds of trade liberalization lower MFN import tariffs in EU up to +50%?

 wiiw 6 WTO impact on RU-AT investments  AT FDI stock in RU: ~ € 6 billion Olympic Games in Sochi – infrastructure projects - WTO: little impact on banking sector - But: esp. Raiffeisenbank already active in RU! - Insurance sector to be liberalized more: possibilities for AT companies  RU FDI stock in AT: ~ € 2 billion (???) - Deripaska – Strabag - Energy cooperation and RU-EU political rapprochement more important than WTO