Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies Employment, Education and Occupation Structures: A Framework for Forecasting by Robert Stehrer, wiiw

2 The framework (1) Labour demand: Labour demand growth: Dynamics of labour demand:

3 The framework (2) Sectoral productivity growth > Convergence to technological leader > Exogenous long term growth Output share dynamics > Convergence to EU-15 mean > Exogenous growth rates of shares

4 The framework (3) > Convergence in occupations structures by sectors to EU-15 mean > No convergence in educational structures by occupational categories and sectors

5 Data > OECD STAN database > National accounts data > LFS data

6 Productivity levels in % of EU-15, 2002

7 Output shares, 2002

8 Parameters estimated from large country sample

9 Employment levels (2002=1)

10 Forecasts of changes in employment levels, and

11 Forecasts of employment levels, 2007 and 2012, Indices 2002=1

12 Employment shares, Slovenia Czech Republic Poland Romania EU

13 Decomposition analysis (1)

14 Decomposition analysis (2) (per year in % of employment levels 1997)

15 Decomposition analysis (3) (per year in % of employment levels 2002)

16 Forecasts of changes in employment levels by occupational categories,

17 Forecasts of employment levels by occupations, 2012, Indices 2002=1

18 Forecasts of changes in employment levels by education,

19 Forecasts of employment levels by education, 2012, Indices 2002=1

20 Summary (1) > Heterogenous developments for aggregate employment levels across countries > Structural dynamic patterns are similar; but differences in magnitudes > Demand for BCHS and BCLS is (relatively and absolutely) decreasing > Demand for LE is (relatively and absolutely) decreasing

21 Summary (2) > Productivity catching-up (-) > GDP growth (+) > Structural change effect (+/-); but less important