Microsimulation Conference 2007 The “LifeCourse” Model, a Competing Risk Cohort Microsimulation Model: Source Code and Basic Concepts of the Generic Microsimulation Programming Language Modgen Martin Spielauer

LifeCourse Model: Background & Aims -Developed at Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research alongside a study on fertility decline in Bulgaria and Russia -It was also developed and used as a teaching tool for the European Doctoral School for Demography -LifeCourse is a very simple continuous time cohort MSM -LifeCourse is programmed in Modgen, a generic MS language developed at Statistics Canada: efficient (few pages), readable (C++), modular, user-friendly GUI -LifeCourse serves as template for other models; e.g. it was recently extended and adapted for the study of the effect of union dissolution on fertility in France (Vienna Institute for Demography, Stockholm University)

LifeCourse Step by Step -The statistical model -The Modgen/C++ programming environment -Programming: -Simulation Engine -Parameter handling -Events -Table Output -The resulting Modgen Application LifeCourse -User Interface -Graphical display of individual histories

The Statistical Model -6 Piecewise constant hazard regression models for first and second births, first and second union formations, and first and second union dissolutions. -Simple (easy to interpret) models including interactions with calendar time to study changes over time. -E.g. Model for First Births:

The Modgen programming environment -Integrated into MS Visual Studio NET C++: Modgen code translated into C++ before being compiled -Efficient programming of MSM applications: -Event handling (event queue) -Handling of input parameters and output tables of any dimension -Efficient multilingual cross-referenced model documentation and input/output labeling -Modgen graphical user-interface -All output automatically includes information on Monte Carlo variability -Graphical visualization of individual life-courses by BioBrowser tool

The Modgen programming environment

Programming: 1) Simulation Engine

Programming: 2) Parameter Handling

Programming: 3) Events

Programming: 4) Table Output

The resulting Modgen Application LifeCourse

The resulting Modgen Application LifeCourse

Conclusion -I hope that „LifeCourse“ and its technical documentation is useful also for others as -Information resource introducing into Modgen -Model template for first steps into MSM development using Modgen -Modgen: -Mostly known in connection with extremely complex models (Lifepaths, POHEM), the strengths of Modgen unfold also for very simple models -NOTE: this presentation only covered a small fraction of the concepts and strengths of Modgen