Norges Bank 1 Monetary Policy Meeting 2 November 2005

Norges Bank 2 Growth forecasts from Consensus Forecasts Source: Consensus Forecasts

Norges Bank 3 CPI/HICP 1) 12-month change. Per cent. January 2002 – September 2005 US Sweden 2) 1 Harmonised index of consumer prices 2) UND1X Euro area UK Source: EcoWin

Norges Bank 4 Product and crude oil prices Index, 2 January 2002 = January 2004 – 31 October 2005 Crude oil Jet fuel Sources: NYMEX and IPE Unleaded petrol

Norges Bank 5 CPI core 1) 12-month change. January 1999 – September 2005 US Sweden Euro area UK 1) US: CPI excl. food and energy Euro area, UK and Sweden: CPI excl. energy, food, alcohol and tobacco Source: EcoWin

Norges Bank 6 Actual and expected key rates for the US, the euro area, the UK and Sweden Sources: Reuters and Norges Bank US Euro area 31 October 20 September Sweden UK

Norges Bank 7 Developments in 10-year government bond yields Per cent. 3 January 2005 – 31 October 2005 Germany Norway US Source: EcoWin

Norges Bank 8 Developments in international equity indices Total return. Indexed, 3 January 2005 = January 2005 – 31 October 2005 Source: EcoWin

Norges Bank 9 Developments in equity sub-indices, Oslo Stock Exchange Total return. Indexed, 3 January 2005 = January 2005 – 31 October 2005 ** Calculated as the average of the industrials and materials indices Source: EcoWin *Calculated as the average of the IT and telecom indices.

Norges Bank 10 Oil futures prices USD per barrel light crude. 2 January 2001 – 31 October 2005 Delivery in 6-7 years Delivery in 1 month Source: EcoWin/ NYMEX

Norges Bank 11 CPI and CPI-ATE 1) 12-month change. Per cent. January 2002 – September ) CPI-ATE: CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products CPI CPI-ATE Source: Statistics Norway

Norges Bank 12 CPI-ATE 12-month change. Per cent. December 2003 – September (Broken line: projections IR 2/05) Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Goods and services produced in Norway (0.7) 1) 1) Norges Bank's calculations Imported consumer goods (0.3) CPI-ATE

Norges Bank 13 3-month interest rate differential and import-weighted exchange rate (I-44)* January 2002 – October 2005 Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank I-44 (right-hand scale) Weighted 3-month interest rate differential (left-hand scale) 20 September October 2005 * A rising curve denotes a stronger krone exchange rate

Norges Bank 14 Macroeconomists’ interest rate projections Sources: Reuters and Norges Bank

Norges Bank 15 Unemployed In thousands. Seasonally adjusted. January 2001 – October 2005 LFS unemployment Registered unemployed and on labour market programs Registered unemployed Sources: Statistics Norway and the Directorate of Labour

Norges Bank 16 Business tendency survey Business climate index Seasonally differentiated diffusion index Q Q3 Source: Statistics Norway

Norges Bank 17 1) Projections for 2005 ― 2008 Changes in house prices Per cent ― ) Sources: Norwegian Association of Real Estate Agents, Association of Real Estate Agency Firms, Finn.no, ECON and Norges Bank

Norges Bank 18 Credit to households 1) and enterprises 2) 12-month growth. Per cent. January 2002 – September 2005 Non-financial enterprises mainland Norway 1) From domestic sources (C2) 2) Total credit to non-financial enterprises mainland Norway (C3) Households Source: Norges Bank

Norges Bank 19 Underlying spending growth in the government budget and nominal growth in mainland GDP Growth on previous year. Per cent ) 1) Projections for 2005 and 2006 from the Ministry of Finance Underlying spending growth Nominal growth in mainland GDP Sources: Ministry of Finance (National Budget 2006) and Statistics Norway

Norges Bank 20 Baseline scenario in Inflation Report 3/05 Import- weighted exchange rate CPI-ATE Output gap Sight deposit rate