System Analysis Advisory Committee Assumptions for the Seventh Power Plan Michael Schilmoeller Friday, January 25, 2013

The Fifth Power Plan Appendix P contains a section comparing alternative risk metrics and the efficient frontiers they produce The SAAC has discussed the merits of adding a unit-service cost criterion Are there other risk metrics we should consider? What are utilities and agencies using and why? Uncertainty and Risk 2

Should the Council include other kinds of behaviors that curtail power plant production? –The model already has a carbon penalty and the capability to model some cap and trade –Should some units retire spontaneously or after prolonged forced outages? –Ratepayer backlash against RPS statutes Generation Availability 3

The Council currently restricts consideration of power generation to plants committed to the region Twenty-five percent of PacifiCorp’s operating costs for plants outside the region falls on the regional ratepayer Is it time to expand the footprint? The Regional Footprint 4

How do we think about the durability of conservation and uncertainty around durability? Should we consider uncertainty around the shape of conservation? Conservation 5

How much demand elasticity should be model reflect? Are there other behaviors we may want to capture? Behaviors 6