Voting for Congress The Statics and Dynamics of Party Ideology
Learning Objectives Analyze the theories of why people vote and apply them to the 2012 Election. Evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of how presidential and congressional elections are financed.
WHY PARTIES MOVE?
Party Movement When do parties change ideologies When do the diverge? When do they resemble each other
Where To Build a Bar in Central Texas? Here… in Bastrop
Or Here? 6 th Street
Why Do you See These two across the Street From Each Other?
Why Does This, Appear next to This?
Why Do We Have?
THESE STRATEGIES APPLY TO POLITICAL PARTIES
Lets Apply this to Ideology Here is a distribution with 0 representing policy liberalism, and 100 representing policy conservativism A and B represent political parties
Where Parties Should Go in A Normal Distribution They Move To the Center
Why go to the Center You Cant leapfrog the other party More voters At what point do you stop moving to the Center?
When do you stop?
The Problem of Being Too Moderate A Third Party could grab your flank Too many of your people stay home
STAYING PUT
What About A Bimodal Distribution?
Party Polarization
One Hump is often Bigger 2010
In 2008 it was the other way
MULTI PARTY SYSTEMS
Polygamy
A polymodal System
A Polymodal System In PR systems, 1 party for Each hump How might this differ in a Single Member District System?
In Germany
Party Movement in Multiparty Systems Stay Put! Distinguish yourself from your enemies
How our Parties Deal with the Humps Social and Economic Conservatives (within the GOP) The Many Humps within the Democratic Party
WHY DO WE HAVE A TWO PARTY SYSTEM
How Many Parties in Majority Elections Duverger’s Law – Mechanical Effect – Psychological Effect
The Kinds of Parties Those who are there to win Those that are there to influence
How many parties in a PR system? As many parties as humps exist Depends on the threshold
NEW PARTIES
Getting New Parties in Our System Existing parties cant jump over each other New Parties come from – Between the gap – On the fringe
What New parties Want to Do Win electionsThreaten Existing Parties
How can Third Parties Win? A Shift In Franchise…. The electorate changes!
Splitting the Vote
Parties Will often Try To be Ambiguous, Why?
Voting For Congress
Goals of Congressperson The Primary Goal is to Get Elected The Next goal is to get re-elected (Mayhew, 1974)
PARTISANSHIP AND TURNOUT
Lower turnout in Congressional Elections Lower Excitement Lower Salience Lower Information
Partisanship is Most Important The biggest factor in Congressional election Even in open seat elections
Safe Seats Seat Maximization through Gerrymandering Majority Minority Districts
Residential Self Selection
INCUMBENCY Major Factor 2
Incumbency Can Eclipse Partisanship in some places A resource that provides many benefits
Incumbency The incumbent dominates the discourse The incumbent has the advantages It is the Incumbent’s seat to lose
Incumbent Benefit - Money Attract Money at Higher Rates The War Chest
Incumbent Benefit- Name Recognition We Vote For Who We Know What can Incumbents Do?
Benefit 3 – Weak Challengers Run against Losers Scare off Good Challengers
Lose<Not Run<Win
Voluntary Retirements When candidates leave office, rather than run for re-election. Why people Retire?
HOW INCUMBENTS CAN LOSE
Stop Playing the Game Get too Old Become inattentive Scandal
Strategic Challengers can Alter This They run when national trends favor their party They have local advantages as well They also have the most to lose!
How Strategic Challengers Change Campaigns Attract Money Can turn National Issues into Local Ones Are Quality Challengers as Well
What is a Quality Challenger A person who has formerly/currently held elective office Name Recognition, Access to Money, a constituuency
INCUMBENCY IN THE HOUSE AND SENATE
House Incumbency
Senate Incumbency
House vs Senate Incumbents Why are Senators more vulnerable?